Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Melbourne, FL

372 
WWUS52 KMLB 031921
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

FLC127-031930-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-170703T1930Z/
Volusia FL-
321 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2912 8118 2913 8102 2887 8092 2886 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 351DEG 15KT 2898 8108 

$$

Bragaw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Morning Cape sounding shows very similar conditions as yesterday
with precip water at 1.7" and 500 mb temp a seasonable -7C. The low
level ridge axis remains across central FL. Based on sfc obs and
cumulus cloud motions, the axis is located across our southern
counties and appears to have sharpened a bit with light SW flow
across Volusia and Brevard. This may delay the sea breeze a tad
there and have bumped up the forecast highs into the lower 90s. Some
altocu was noted earlier this morning across Lake/Volusia counties
indicative of some upward motion aloft so expect scattered
showers/storms to initiate in that region early to mid afternoon
with a secondary area along the inland moving sea breeze just inland
from the coast south of the Cape.

Did not make changes to the PoP forecast which shows highest (50
Percent) chances over the interior but adjusted the weather grids
for timing of onset and ending of convection. There will be a few
strong storms this afternoon/early evening focused on I 4
corridor/Orlando metro area/Osceola county containing frequent
lightning strikes, heavy rain and downburst wind gusts.

The expected early start to convection across the north should work
over enough instability to allow most precip to end around sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection should initiate btwn 16Z-18Z from LEE-
DAB-SFB and along the sea breeze just inland from FPR-SUA. WIll prob
need a TEMPO for TS for many of the northern terminals roughly 19Z-
22Z. Convection should stay west of the coastal terminals (south of
TIX) through 00Z so will maintain VC term there.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge axis remains across central FL and the adjacent Atlc keeping a
light southwest flow across the northern waters and S/SE flow across
the south. Favorable boating conditions with seas 1-2 feet, except
up to 3 feet well offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  91  75 /  40  30  40  10
MCO  91  75  94  75 /  40  20  50  20
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
VRB  89  74  90  75 /  30  20  20  20
LEE  92  76  93  76 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  92  75  93  75 /  50  30  40  20
ORL  91  76  94  76 /  50  30  50  20
FPR  90  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Kelly/Ulrich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
130 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-040000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
130 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
remainder of the afternoon, first across Lake and Volusia counties
and then spreading south into Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and
Okeechobee counties later this afternoon and evening. Isolated
thunderstorms along the Space and Treasure coasts should remain
inland, generally along and west of Interstate 95.

Storm motion will be slow and erratic once again. Cloud to ground
lightning and torrential rainfall amounts between one and three
inches in a 60 to 90 minute period will be the main storm threats.
Brief wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH will also be possible in a few
stronger storms over the interior. Whenever skies look threatening,
or you hear thunder, move indoors to safety.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 35 knots over large
inland lakes this afternoon.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will produce a moderate risk for
dangerous Rip Currents in the surf zone today at central Florida's
Atlantic beaches. The threat will be highest late this afternoon and
toward sunset. Check with the local beach patrol for additional
information about ocean hazards. Always swim within sight of a
lifeguard, and never swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and lightning
storms are forecast throughout this week. Storm coverage will
remain highest over the interior counties. The primary threats
will be dangerous lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall,
along with some brief gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotter networks are requested to activate should any
warnings be issued. This would likely be confined to Lake, Seminole,
Orange, Volusia and Osceola Counties today.

Cristaldi/Ulrich

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND GST     DAYTONA BEACH AIRPORT   29.17N 81.07W
07/03/2017  M40 MPH          VOLUSIA            FL   ASOS

            35 KNOT GUST FROM WSW.

&&

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

FLZ141-031930-
Coastal Volusia County FL-
253 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Daytona Beach Airport, or near Port Orange, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona International
Speedway and Daytona Beach Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2916 8118 2920 8106 2898 8088 2892 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 332DEG 19KT 2911 8108

Bragaw