Lake Wind Advisory 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...Flooding Rain Threat this Evening-Overnight for Southern
Areas...

...Deteriorating Conditions over Coastal Waters...

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Rapidly increasing cloud and shower coverage will continue
into this evening, especially across our central and southern zones,
as the peripheral moisture from Tropical Depression Eighteen
continues to advect into the area. A sharp cutoff to the primary
precipitation shield is expected near or just south of the
Interstate 4 corridor as the plume of moisture gets shunted to the
northeast by the second strong cold front of the season. That front,
just now entering the Florida Panhandle, will force Tropical
Depression Eighteen (forecast to become Tropical Storm Philippe)
through the Straits of Florida and toward the northwestern Bahamas
Sunday morning.

The main concerns over the next 12 hours or so is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County. A corridor of low-level convergence will combine
with favorable dynamics out ahead of an approaching mid- and upper-
level trough, supporting convection capable of producing very heavy
rainfall into early Sunday morning. As noted in the Flood Watch
issued earlier, rainfall totals of 1-3" are expected with areas of 2-
4" likely along the coast where frictional convergence in onshore
flow should enhance rainfall rates. Rainfall totals will drop off
sharply to the north, with light to moderate showers anticipated
here. Expect the heaviest precipitation to be carried out to sea a
few hours before sunrise Sunday as the front sweeps through east
central and Florida and shunts TD#18/Philippe into the northwestern
Bahamas.

Sunday...The cold front is expected to be offshore by sunrise,
allowing strong dry- and cold-air advection to commence shortly
thereafter. Early morning cloud cover will quickly scour out,
leading to a rather pleasant afternoon under mostly sunny skies and
breezy northwest. Highs will range from the upper 60s across
northern Lake/inland Volusia counties, to upper 70s along the
Treasure Coast.

Sun night-Tue...As the cold front pushes Tropical
Depression Eighteen (potentially Tropical Storm Philippe)
northeast up the mid-Atlantic coast, high pressure will settle in
over the northern Gulf Coast, filtering in significantly drier air
and breezy NW flow to east central FL. PoPs remain below 10%,
with clear skies through the period. Chilly temps return behind
the front, with Monday morning lows in the low to mid 40s for the
interior, and low 50s along the coast, with highs struggling to
reach 70. Tuesday the chilly pattern continues, with lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s, highs in the mid 70s.

Wed-Sat (modified prev)...Weak high pressure north of the area is
absorbed into a somewhat stronger ridge building east toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast toward mid-week. This will lead to a developing
onshore flow that will strengthen slightly through the remainder of
the work week. Onshore flow will moderate temperatures back to
normal values (highs in the low 80s/lows in the 60s) by Thursday,
and may produce periods of isolated light onshore moving showers
mainly later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Complicated forecast today with the area caught
between an approaching frontal boundary to the northwest and a
tropical depression well to the southwest. From MLB-SUA expecting
periods of rain showers (some heavy) through Sunday morning with
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible. Only carrying VCSH
from ISM- TIX northward as moisture will not be as high to the
north. MVFR and perhaps some IFR ceilings are possible over the
interior and DAB during the overnight hours and early Sunday
morning. Frontal boundary should push through the northern
terminals in the early overnight hours and southern terminals
sometime early Sunday morning. Skies should rapidly clear out by
late Sunday morning with breezy WNW winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Sunday...Tropical Depression Eighteen, forecast to become
Tropical Storm Philippe as it traverses the Straits of Florida and
moves toward the northwestern Bahamas. Given the tightening of the
local pressure gradient, and the proximity of TD#18/Philippe, have
opted to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the Treasure Coast waters
(both nearshore and offshore) into tonight. Winds will steadily
increase to around 20 knots, up to 25 knots with gusts to gale force
overnight as TD#18/Philippe makes it closest approach. Numerous
showers with a slight chance of storms will spread northward to near
Cape Canaveral through the overnight.

A strong cold front, the second of the season, will sweep through
the waters early Sunday morning, quickly ending rain chances and
bringing a surge of northwest winds to 20 knots nearshore and up to
20-25 knots offshore. Conditions for small craft operations will
deteriorate rapidly, especially the further from the coast one
travels. Choppy 4-6 feet seas nearshore (up to 7 feet at times over
the outer nearshore waters), and 7-8 feet offshore. Small Craft
Advisory will be hoisted for all waters beginning 8 am Sunday.

Sun night-Mon...Hazardous marine conditions prevail Sunday night
into Monday, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect through early
Mon morning. Breezy NW flow 15-20 kts w/ higher gusts, seas 3-5 ft
nearshore, 6-8 feet offshore, but will gradually subside Mon
afternoon as high pressure builds in from W.

Tue-Wed (modified prev)...High pressure north of the waters is
absorbed by a slightly stronger high building toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast mid week, quickly improving conditions. Winds shift
onshore Wednesday 5-10 kts, with seas generally ranging from 2-4
feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  71  48  67 /  50  10  10   0
MCO  64  71  46  67 /  60  10  10   0
MLB  68  76  50  68 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  69  77  50  69 /  90  20   0  10
LEE  62  69  45  68 /  40  10  10   0
SFB  64  71  46  67 /  50  10  10   0
ORL  65  71  46  67 /  60  10  10   0
FPR  69  78  50  69 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Indian River-Martin-
     Okeechobee-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

Sharp/Ulrich/Combs/Smith

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