Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
937 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.UPDATE...

Scattered thunderstorms producing large hail were occuring over
central Wisconsin with more thunderstorms along a cold front
farther north. Meso models have continued to back off on the
thunderstorms, but are not really handling the current storms.
Still expected isolated storms into southern Wisconsin this
evening with the better chance chances when the cold front
arrives.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds tonight. Southwest winds will veer to nwly by
sunrise on Fri with the winds shifting to the northeast for the
afternoon. The magnitude of the winds and waves will remain just
below Small Craft criteria. Still a chance of thunderstorms
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 725 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017)

UPDATE...

Scattered thunderstorms were occuring over central Wisconsin with
more thunderstorms along a cold front farther north. meso models
have backed off on the thunderstorms, but these were initialized
just before the current storms developed. Still expected more
isolated storms, especially north of Madison this evening with
the better chance across the south when the cold front arrives.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Scattered thunderstorms were occuring over central Wisconsin with
more thunderstorms along a cold front farther north. meso models
have backed off on the thunderstorms, but these were initialized
just before the current storms developed. Still expected more
isolated storms, especially north of Madison this evening with
the better chance across the south when the cold front arrives.

Mainly VFR except ifr in thunderstorms.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon into the
early evening. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 340 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017)

TONIGHT - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Southern WI is un-capped with up to 4000 j/kg of surface-based CAPE.
We are lacking any forcing to get thunderstorms to develop.
The bulk shear is increasing so any thunderstorms that can get going
should be strong.

The area to watch is central WI. This is where there is a decent
thermal boundary and a potential weak shortwave (water vapor
imagery). Look for this feature to slide southeast and potentially
trigger some strong storms late this afternoon into the early
evening. Several models key into this feature to produce storms when
it gets to southeast WI in the Milwaukee Metro area around 6 or 7
pm. Large hail and damaging wind (and a possible tornado) are what
we would expect.

One more area to watch is northeast MN. There is a large, uncapped
area with strong instability and moderate shear that is just ahead
of a surface cold front. Storms are now developing and these will
likely expand southeast and sweep through portions of southern WI
late this evening, like 11 pm to 2 am. Storms would likely be in a
line and elevated by the time they would reach us tonight, so
damaging winds would be the main threat, but large hail is still a
possibility depending upon storm mode.

Check the radar frequently and keep up with the latest forecasts and
discussions.

Friday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon into the
early evening. These will develop along the leading edge of a potent
mid level shortwave trough that will slide through central WI late
Fri afternoon. Peak daytime heating, lingering low level moisture
will allow for around 1000 j/kg CAPE and moderate deep layer shear.
A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and small hail. SPC
added portions of WI into a Marginal risk due to our potential for a
few 1 inch hail reports and near-severe wind gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

A few storms may linger into Friday evening over eastern CWA as
vigorous mid-level short wave slides southeast across Lake Michigan
into Lower Michigan.  Otherwise a brief period of quiet weather is
expected later Friday night through Saturday.  Return flow and
moisture begins as upper level ridging slides off to the southeast.
However, short term guidance in agreement on low level jet and
moisture convergence remaining mostly southwest of southern WI
across IA into northern IL.  Wl keep most of CWA dry but keep a
small chance in the far southwest around Darlington as low level jet
and weakly elevated instability may graze this area.  Slightly
deeper moisture in place on Sunday as possible convective eddy from
upstream overnight convection passes through. GFS also indicating
potential enhanced upper level divergence from right entrance region
of upper jet passing to the north of the area.  So wl have low
chance pops in for Sunday.

Friday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon into the
early evening. These will develop along the leading edge of a potent
mid level shortwave trough that will slide through central WI late
Fri afternoon. Peak daytime heating, lingering low level moisture
will allow for around 1000 j/kg CAPE and moderate deep layer shear.
A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and small hail. SPC
added portions of WI into a Marginal risk due to our potential for a
few 1 inch hail reports and near-severe wind gusts.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Will continue to carry chance wording for thunderstorms across
southern WI Sunday night into Monday night as cold front caught in
WNW steering winds shifts south through the area.  Low level forcing
from front will be enhanced by passing mid-level short waves caught
in upper level steering flow.  Column moisture will not be a problem
as precipitable water values are expected to return to around 1.5
inches by this time. However some uncertainty regardings differences
in timing of passing mid-level short waves.  At this point, best
chance for more widespread thunder looks to be Monday.

Quiet weather will return across most of southern WI as high
pressure passes across the western Great Lakes in the Tue/Wed time
frame. Significant differences in timing of next synoptic forcing
event to affect the area in the Wed night/Thu period.  ECMWF had
been showing more amplified short wave moving through, but has now
backed off on amplitude.  Unstable atmosphere and northwest steering
winds will continue to bring periods of unsettled weather for the
later part of next week.

AVIATION (21Z TAFS)...

We are expecting thunderstorms in southern WI this afternoon and
evening. Timing is very uncertain. Earlier storms will be isolated.
More widespread storms are expected either early this evening or
late this evening, depending on their evolution across northern
Wisconsin.

Scattered showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon into the
early evening. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail.

MARINE...

Southwesterly winds will quickly become established by early
evening. Swly winds will veer to nwly by sunrise on Fri with the
winds shifting to the northeast for the afternoon. The magnitude of
the winds and waves will remain fairly weak.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Friday Night through Thursday...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
533 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-072245-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
533 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through the evening.
The primary threats will be damaging wind to 70 mph and large hail
up to 2 inches. A tornado can not be ruled out. Heavy rainfall
resulting in localized street flooding will also be possible.

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has issued an air
quality advisory for ozone until 11 pm for people in Kenosha
county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the
early evening. Several of these storms may cause hail to one inch
and wind gusts to 60 mph.

The chance for thunderstorms returns Sunday and continue off and
on into Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

LMZ643>646-072245-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
533 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late this
afternoon into the evening. The threats are damaging wind to 70
mph and large hail up to 2 inches in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday afternoon into the
early evening. Several of these storms may cause hail to one inch
and wind gusts to 60 mph.

The chance for thunderstorms return Sunday and continue off and
on into Monday night.

Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
138 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

WIZ058-063>065-070700-
Dodge-Waukesha-Jefferson-Dane-
138 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WAUKESHA...
JEFFERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL DODGE COUNTIES...

At 138 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Mills,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Jefferson, Delafield, Lake Mills, Okauchee Lake,
Oconomowoc, Johnson Creek, Dousman, Palmyra, Lac La Belle, Ixonia,
Rome, Nashotah, Milford, Hebron, Sullivan, Oconomowoc Lake,
Hubbleton, Pipersville and Helenville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4310 8902 4326 8889 4309 8836 4287 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 301DEG 36KT 4314 8887

HENTZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

WIZ070>072-070815-
Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WALWORTH...RACINE
AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 237 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Eagle Lake, or
near Union Grove, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kenosha, Racine, Mount Pleasant, Pleasant Prairie, Sturtevant, Union
Grove, East Troy, Paddock Lake, Wind Lake, Camp Lake, Rochester,
Silver Lake, Browns Lake, Waterford North, Potter Lake, Eagle Lake,
Bohners Lake, Salem, Burlington and Waterford.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4276 8848 4284 8838 4284 8816 4271 8777
      4267 8779 4266 8781 4261 8782 4259 8781
      4253 8781 4249 8786 4249 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 305DEG 32KT 4272 8811

HENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

WIZ071-072-070845-
Racine-Kenosha-
310 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN KENOSHA COUNTY...

At 310 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pleasant
Prairie, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kenosha, Pleasant Prairie and Bristol.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4256 8806 4268 8795 4262 8782 4260 8782
      4259 8781 4252 8781 4249 8780 4249 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 307DEG 37KT 4258 8796

SPM