Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
356 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Current showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along
outflow boundary in southern portions of the area, with more
development along other outflow/differential heating boundaries to
the north. In addition, a cold front is expected to slide
southward across the area through the middle evening hours. It is
just north of the forecast area at this time.

There should be at least 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE in
areas that have not had clouds and precipitation from earlier on,
which is mainly in the southwest half of the area. The other areas
may recover enough to support these values of mean layer CAPE as
well. 0 to 6 km bulk shear ranges from around 25 knots in the
southwest counties, up to 40 knots in the northeast near the lake.

Mesoscale models seem to focus convective development in the area
of the outflow boundary, perhaps helped by frontogenesis response
with the cold front. This would favor central and southern
portions of the area for continued development, though the north
may see some as well from the front. Continued scattered PoPs into
this evening, with some uncertainty with areal coverage due to
lack of good upward vertical motion aloft.

Given the instability and shear, strong to isolated severe storms
remain possible. Gusty winds and hail are the primary hazards,
along with brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning.
Keep up with the forecast if outdoors into this evening.

High pressure moving across Lake Superior later tonight into
Monday should bring quiet weather to the area. Light easterly
winds will bring cooler temperatures on Monday near the lake, with
near normal temperatures inland.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models have trended drier for Monday night into most of
Independence Day. The influence of the easterly flow with the
high to the northeast of the region looks to have kept dry air in
place across most of the area. Thus, kept the dry forecast for
Monday night into Independence Day, with low PoPs in the far west
late in the afternoon.

Models then try to bring the influence of the advancing 500 mb
shortwave trough into the region Tuesday night and especially on
Wednesday. Models are bringing moisture into the area by
Wednesday, with decent upward vertical motion fields. Kept
consensus PoPs for later Tuesday night into Wednesday. It looks
like most of Tuesday evening should be dry for outdoor activities
across the area.

Near normal temperatures are expected, with onshore winds keeping
lakeshore areas cooler.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Left periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for this period, as the models are in some disagreement
with timing and placement of features. They are trying to show a
cold front moving southeast through the region on Friday, but
again have timing and placement differences. No all-day rains at
this point, and hopefully the models will get a better handle on
things as we approach this period.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Look for current showers and storms to continue to develop and
slide southeast across portions of the area into this evening.
Strong storms with gusty winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall and
cloud to ground lightning are possible. Brief occurrences of
conditions near or below alternate minimums are possible with any
storms.

Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will shift to the north
to northeast behind it by the middle evening hours and weaken.
They should remain weak later tonight into early Monday morning,
then shifting east. Think any fog will remain light later
tonight, with drier air slowly moving into the area. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected tonight into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Look for current showers and storms to continue to develop and
slide southeast across portions of the area into this evening.
Strong storms with gusty winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall and
cloud to ground lightning are possible. Keep up with the forecast
if out on Lake Michigan into this evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Monday Night through Sunday...Wood

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