Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
318 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.TONIGHT and SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence is medium...
A few showers are pushing into the region this afternoon with a
weak shortwave that will move across the region late this
afternoon. Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm is possible
this evening with instability lingering and an 850mb thermal
ridge nudging into the region. A surface front is departing the
state keeping the threat for severe storms further south across
Illinois. A strong upper trough will approach the region tonight
and upper divergence increases in response. A surface low will
move into northern WI. There is a chance for precip and thunder
with these features later this evening. Thunder chances diminish
after midnight. Sunday morning, precip chances will be more toward
central WI, closer to the surface low.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the passage of the
upper trough. Scattered cumulus expected during the afternoon,
while closer to central WI it may be overcast. West winds will be
a little gusty. Cyclonic flow will linger and low level lapse
rates will be steep so can't rule out a few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm popping up in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

An upper level trough will be drifting across the area during the
period. The cooler air aloft will combine with the peak heating of
the afternoon to produce scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon and early evening. No
severe weather expected. Temps will remain much cooler...in the
70s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Once the upper trough moves off, we get into a fast, more zonal
flow. A few short waves will clip through the region in this
faster flow. One comes through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night and another on Friday. These will bring a chance of showers
and storms. At this point, there doesn't appear to be much concern
for severe weather. Temperatures remain at or just below normal
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...
There is a small chance for some showers and maybe a thunderstorm
this evening. Lower ceilings and visibilities are possible with
any storms, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through
tonight. Ceilings of 1000-2000 are possible Sunday morning,
becoming 3000-4000ft during the afternoon. West winds will gust
20-25 knots on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft levels. West winds
will gust around 20 knots on Sunday. See some transient fog on
webcams. West winds later tonight should scour this out.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Sunday Night through Saturday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
429 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-182130-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
429 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of
southeast Wisconsin south of a line from Port Washington to
Sullivan to Brodhead. The rest of southeast and most of south
central Wisconsin is in a marginal risk into the evening.
Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns with this
round of potential severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There are chances of thunderstorms at times from Sunday through
Friday. No severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening.

LMZ643>646-182130-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
429 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms for the remainder of this
afternoon and into the evening. There is a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms south of Port Washington. High winds and large hail
are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Westerly winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels on
Sunday.

There are chances of thunderstorms at times from Sunday through
Friday.

Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

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