Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
232 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Rest of this afternoon and tonight - Confidence...Medium

Frontal boundary has shifted into the CWA with a good deal of
cloudiness in the vicinity. However the front has proved to be
inefficient at generating convection due to the slow erosion of
the CAP. Meso models have been too quick to fire things off. So
have trimmed POPS down to account for at least some isolated
development, though forcing other than the low level boundary
looks pretty meager. The main focus is on how the evolving MCS
will track from southern MN/northern MN. The HRRR runs are keying
on the northern CWA from 00z-03z. Initially this complex was
riding northeast but latest imagery suggests more of a shift to
the east. The Corfidi vectors have more of an ENE look so this
turn makes sense so planning on this continuing to trend more
east so have the highest POPS in the northern CWA, which does
point to the HRRR solution as having a plausible handle on trends.
Airmass is loaded with moisture so some heavy rains are possible
along with wet microburst type winds and some hail as well. The
SPC slight risk looks good for now.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium

Surface front proggd to shift further south and possibly bisect
the CWA from NW to SE. This will play havoc with temps but will
have a NE/SW gradient in temps to account for this frontal shift.
Mid level ridging pops up across the area though 850 winds still
proggd to be southerly with some moisture/thermal convergence
possibly resulting in some SHRA/TSRA though the ECMWF is dry.
Should be plenty of CAPE in the warm sector though a substantial
trigger lacking with 500 millibar heights actually building this
period.

Tuesday night through WEDNESDAY night...Forecast Confidence Is
Medium.

The upper ridge exits to the east Tuesday evening as the upper
low moves across the northern plains Tuesday night and reaches
South Central Canada Wednesday with the trough axis of the
shortwave moving across the upper Mississippi Valley and Wisconsin.
Upper level divergence increases, especially Wednesday along with
the 700 mb upward motion.

Due to the increasing dynamics, thunderstorms will be likely
especially later Wednesday and Wednesday night, when a cold front
moves across southern Wisconsin late Wednesday night.

The GFS soundings show Zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE is around
1500 Joules/kg Tuesday night and 2500 to 3000 Joules/kg some
areas Wednesday. However with the model generated convection, the
CAPE field becomes chaotic. Shear does increase so we will have
to watch for the potential of severe storms.

A continued very warm south flow is expected, with the lake breeze
staying fairly close to the Lake Michigan shore.

.LONG TERM...

.Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

There is still a weak upper trough across Wisconsin.

GFS forecast soundings show dry air above the surface with steep
zero to 3 km lapse rates of 7.7 Celsius/km.

Temperatures are still very warm, but with somewhat lower
dewpoints.

There would be the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm if
there is enough residual low level moisture.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A more zonal upper flow is expected with a shortwave Saturday. The
upper flow then becomes more west/northwest.

Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected with the best
chance Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks fairly dry.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Surface front will continue to sag into the
area this afternoon with convection likely to fire within this
frontal zone as airmass is warm and very unstable. Meso models are
keying on a little more organized activity this evening, (00z-03z)
window and later in the night (06z-11z) however this latter round
may not maintain strength across CWA. Some upstream post-frontal
stratus may play a role later in the night into Tuesday morning
while some locally lower vsbys/cigs with any storms.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
levels for the next few days. Main concern evolving this afternoon
and tonight will be on thunderstorms. And this potential continues
into midweek.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Hentz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for much of
southern Wisconsin. The primary threat is damaging winds and large
hail. A few storms will develop north of the Madison and Milwaukee
areas late this afternoon, the best thunderstorm chances will
push in from the west this early this evening. Some of the storms
could produce heavy rain.

Heat index values will still be in the lower to middle 90s early
this evening over the southern half of the area.

There is a Moderate Swim Risk at Lake Michigan beaches for Port
Washington and Sheboygan counties this evening. Breaking waves
and currents are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas like
piers, breakwalls, and river outlets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Heat index values will be in the lower to middle 90s west of a
Dells to Burlington line.

There are chances for thunderstorms at times through Saturday.
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

LMZ643>646-132030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms north areas this evening,
and across the waters tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times through Saturday.
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.

Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

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