Small Craft Advisory 79, NWS Milwaukee, WI

357 
WHUS73 KMKX 061432
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 AM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

LMZ643>646-062245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.171007T0600Z-171008T0600Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
932 AM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE 
  SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 
  GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. 

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 3 TO 6 FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
CRONCE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

819 
WHUS73 KMKX 062022
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

LMZ643>646-070430-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.171007T0300Z-171008T0600Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
322 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME
  SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
  EVENING... THEN BECOME SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 3 TO 6 FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
CRONCE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

210 
WHUS73 KMKX 070205
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

LMZ643>646-071015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.171007T0300Z-171008T0600Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
905 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
  WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY AROUND
  MIDNIGHT. THEN BECOME SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 3 TO 6 FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

689 
WHUS73 KMKX 070828
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

LMZ643>646-071630-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-171008T0900Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KNOTS...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BY
  LATE MORNING. 

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE AND 3 TO 5
  FEET SOUTH OF THERE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

512 
WHUS73 KMKX 071512
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

LMZ643>646-072315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-171008T0900Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1012 AM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE
  MORNING. WINDS BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KNOTS BY LATE EVENING... THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY
  SUNDAY MORNING.

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE AND 3 TO 5
  FEET SOUTH OF THERE. WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
CRONCE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

774 
WHUS73 KMKX 071958
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

LMZ643>646-080400-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-171008T0900Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
  A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
  EVENING. WINDS BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING... THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
  BY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE AND 3 TO 5 
  FEET SOUTH OF THERE. WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
CRONCE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

083 
WHUS73 KMKX 080151
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
851 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT...

LMZ643>646-080900-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-171008T0900Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
851 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
  BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LATE IN THE
  EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
 
* WAVES: 4 TO 6 FEET NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE AND 3 TO 5 
  FEET SOUTH OF THERE. WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Initial surge of mid-level warm air and moisture advection producing
a few lingering -shra over southern WI.  These should exit the area
in the next several hours.  Another small batch is located in
eastern IA, moving northeast.  Thinking most of the morning hours
will be dry as weak short wave ridging moves across southern WI but
due to lingering weak warm air advection, need to continue a lower
chance.  Showers will become more widespread this afternoon and
evening as upstream mid-level short wave over MT/WY area gets nudged
eastward into the central and northern Plains ahead of increasing
zonal flow coming off the Pacific into the northwest CONUS.
Increasing southerly winds ahead of this feature will shift the warm
front now over northern IL northward across southern WI tonight.
Precipitable water values will increase to over 1.5" by 00Z with
increasing wind and moisture convergence as low level jet increases
across the area.  Several periods of showers and a few t-storms are
expected during the afternoon and evening, with the shower threat
diminishing over southeast WI later tonight after the warm front
moves to the north.  Central and western WI will be the primary
focus of enhanced synoptic lift from a coupled jet and this is where
the heaviest rainfall can be expected.  Wl keep high pops through
the night in northwest CWA but if northward trend continues, may be
pulling back on pops in this area as well for later tonight. Lowered
rainfall amounts as well for the next 24 hours.

Saturday - Confidence...Medium
A potent 500 millibar shortwave will become slightly negatively
tilted as it rides northeast across WI. Surface/850 lows lift
across nrn WI. Plentiful moisture and enough forcing to result in
a fairly widespread rainfall with embedded thunder not out of the
question though overall instability will be limited. A little
concerned with the better focus of the dynamics and coupled jet
action being further north limiting the better rainfall amounts in
the areas that need it most in the southeast. Latest QPF reflect
this trend.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level flow remains strong from the southwest but no
discernible waves of concern. There is a frontal boundary that is
proggd to be across the state Sunday and this shifts off to the
east for Monday. Models are dry both days. Warm 925 temps ahead of
this feature Sunday with a trend towards cold advection for
Monday. Mid level trough axis draws closer, with ECMWF faster
though still well west.

Monday night through Tuesday night - Confidence...Low
Model uncertainty pretty high this period. The GFS develops a
southern 500 millibar system at base of progressive trough and
lifts it towards WI with a more northward positioning of stronger
cyclogenesis off to our southeast. this result sin a shield of
rainfall in srn WI while the ECMWF shows ridging more pronounced
here with the 500 millibar low tracking further south and showing
a weakening tendency. This results in a much drier look for srn
WI. So at this time will carry the blended pops given the model
discrepancies in this time frame.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
While some synoptic details are not in sync between the ECMWF and
GFS the message is that in either case there is enough ridging to
suggest a dry forecast. 925 thermal pattern a bit warmer on the
ECMWF.

Thursday - Confidence...Low
The ECMWF eventually brings some remnants of their southern low up
into the area with a potential for some shra. Meanwhile the GFS
keeps the influence of the high in place with broad anticyclonic
wsw mid level flow. At this time the blended solution is favoring
the dry look of the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...General downward trend in ceiling heights
most areas with MVFR cigs now widespread over south central WI. Cigs
flirting with MVFR levels in southeast and expect downward trend to
continue as moist easterly winds increase this morning.  MVFR or
lower cigs then likely to stick around until warm front passage
tonight. Some patchy fog will accompany the warm front in addition
to showers and an isolated t-storm. Wl need to include some low
level wind shear in TAF as low level jet increases across the area.

&&

.MARINE...Unsettled period expected through Saturday.  Strengthening
frontal boundary over northern IL will move northward later today
and tonight across southern Lake Michigan. Deepening moisture ahead
of this approaching front will contribute to periods of showers and
possibly a t-storm this afternoon through later tonight.  As warm
front moves across northern Lake Michigan late tonight and Saturday,
more scattered showers will be expected farther south, with a
continued chance for a t-storm.  The approach of the warm front may
result in some patchy fog developing later today and this evening.
Increasing south winds can be expected once the warm front passes
later tonight.  Wind gusts to 25 knots are expected later tonight,
and up to 30 knots on Saturday.  A few wind gusts will get close to
Gale criteria on Saturday, especially later in the day as winds veer
to the southwest to west.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday through Thursday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070845-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
332 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-070845-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
332 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible.

A small craft advisory goes into effect at 1 AM tonight for gusty
south winds and developing higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A small craft advisory is in effect until 1 AM Saturday night for
high waves and gusty south winds which may approach gale force
gusts on Saturday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday.

Collar
www.weather.gov/mkx