Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Milwaukee, WI

778 
WHUS73 KMKX 021424
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

LMZ643>645-022230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0068.170803T0200Z-170803T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
924 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING BY LATE THIS EVENING. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY 
  SUNRISE THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

510 
WHUS73 KMKX 022010
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>645-030415-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0068.170803T0200Z-170803T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
310 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
  TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EASING OVERNIGHT.
  

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY 
  SUNRISE THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

435 
WHUS73 KMKX 030014
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS CAUSING HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>645-030815-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0068.170803T0014Z-170803T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
714 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
  AND THURSDAY MORNING.  

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

533 
WHUS73 KMKX 030152
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS CAUSING HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>645-031000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-170803T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
852 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT 
  AND THURSDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
  THURSDAY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

229 
WHUS73 KMKX 030754
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS CAUSING HIGH WAVES...

LMZ643>645-031200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-170803T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
254 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS: EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING.
  

* WAVES: 3 TO 4 FEET...DIMINISHING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1139 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected tonight with a very
small chance for a shower or t-storm in the east. Better chance
for a t-storm on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 928 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017)

UPDATE...Expect upstream convection to continue weakening with
loss of insolation, however need to carry small pops across
northern and eastern areas during the overnight as weak upstream
frontal boundary and low to mid-level short wave move through.
Late fog should remain very patchy and shallow due to passing
clouds and boundary layer mixing for much of the night. May need
to lower overnight temps in a few eastern spots.

MARINE...Watch for isolated t-storms overnight as weak frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest. Tightening pressure
gradient to the north of the front later Wednesday into Wednesday
night may result in a period of higher wind gusts reaching Small
Craft Advisory levels for a time.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017)

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Expect some weakening of upstream convection
over central WI during the evening, but enough weak forcing
warrants keeping a small chance in for the overnight hours. Not
enough of a chance at this time to include in TAF forecasts for
the overnight. Some concern for a period of low clouds closer to
Lake Michigan for a time on Wednesday after winds turn onshore and
increase. Some late night shallow fog likely in low and
susceptible areas but again will be very patchy.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is High...

One weak shortwave moves across the lake Superior region tonight,
with the jet stream across far southern canada. There is weak to
moderate upper divergence this evening with weaker divergence
later tonight and Wednesday.

A weak cold front will push into southern Wisconsin late tonight
and exit the southwest later Wednesday, with a northeast surge in
winds down lake Michigan.

Will carry only small chances of a thunderstorms with the front
tonight, with medium range chances Wednesday.

As winds turn northeast behind the cold front, expect some
cooling likely being most noticeable in the Southeast, especially
near lake Michigan.

Wednesday night through Friday...Forecast confidence medium.

A 70-80 kt jet streak will then aid in digging an upper trough
into the Upper MS River Vally by 00Z Fri. The jet will round the
base of the trough with some degree of cyclogenesis expected from
nrn IA or srn MN newd to east central WI and nrn Lower MI for Thu
aft-eve. Warm, moist advection and increasing PVA along with the
CAPE gradient developing over srn WI will lead to numerous showers
and tstorms starting in the morning with additional development in
the aft-eve as the triple point and cold frontal passage occur.
Increasing wind shear and CAPE through the day should at least
result in a small SVR threat with cloud cover being a limiting
factor on the CAPE. The low level wind shear however has been
increasing on the models via more deepening of the sfc low. Thus a
tornado threat would be a concern if the low would take a track
across central WI with the warm front lifting nwd.

A secondary cold front will then pass late Thu nt-Fri AM along
with the passage of the 552-558 DM thickness trough. Thus cool and
showery conditions is forecast for this time period.

LONG TERM...Sat-Tue...Forecast confidence medium.

Wnwly flow aloft will bring a series of weak shortwave troughs
through the weekend into early next week so continued chances of
showers and storms during this period. The most organized upper
wave and highest chances of storms will be on Sun. Temps will be
slightly below normal during this period.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Scattered cumulus this afternoon. A lake breeze is expected. Also
isolated shower/thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, more
likely on the lake breeze front, but could happen farther inland.
Small chance of thunderstorms tonight on the weak cold front
moving in from the north.

MARINE...

Southeast winds into the evening due to a lake breeze but waves
will remain low. Winds will return to southwest to west tonight
before a cold frontal passage will veer the winds to the northwest
late tonight at 10 to 15 knots. Winds may briefly gust to over 25
knots as the front accelerates south with northeast winds Wednesday.
Waves will increase to 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1054 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-030400-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1054 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There are chances of thunderstorms at times Wednesday through
Monday. The strongest storms, possibly severe, will occur Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-030400-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1054 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight mainly north of
Wind Point.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There are chances of thunderstorms at times Wednesday through
Monday. The strongest storms, possibly severe, will occur Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may be reached Wednesday night
and Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK