Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Milwaukee, WI

318 
WHUS73 KMKX 260452
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY...

LMZ643>646-261300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0063.170626T1400Z-170627T0000Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

398 
WHUS73 KMKX 260830
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

LMZ643>646-261630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0063.170626T1400Z-170627T0000Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
330 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
  MORNING...LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
  ARE EXPECTED.

* WAVES: 1 TO 2 FEET...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

291 
WHUS73 KMKX 261419
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

LMZ643>646-262230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-170627T0000Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
919 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. 

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

185 
WHUS73 KMKX 262011
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING...

LMZ643>646-270000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-170627T0000Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
311 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Ceilings in the west are mostly VFR now due to increasing daytime
mixing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight and
tomorrow, though could see a few MVFR spots in the north briefly
as clouds return Monday.

Expect isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, winding down
early evening. Tomorrow will be similar, with more diurnal
showers and cumulus likely. Isolated thunder is also possible
this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 944 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017)

UPDATE...

The clouds are filling in quickly this morning, and should
overspread all of the forecast area by late morning. This should
help keep high temps in the 60s most places. Still looks like a
few showers are possible this afternoon and early evening with a
rumble or two of thunder.

MARINE...

Breezy west winds should stay just below Small Craft Advisory
levels today. Northwest winds could gust to 25 knots Monday, so
may need to consider an advisory. Lighter winds Tuesday will be
followed by possible advisory conditions on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

West winds will gust up to around 20 knots at times today. Mainly
broken cumulus clouds are expected by this afternoon, with
chances for showers and a few storms later this afternoon. These
may linger into early this evening. Gusty winds are possible with
any storms.

Stratocumulus clouds may linger in far northern portions of the
area tonight, with clearing skies over most of the rest of the
area. Winds should weaken during this time.

More chances for showers and a few storms are forecast for Monday
afternoon. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected once again,
possibly gusting in the 20 to 25 knot range.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017)

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Area of rain showers over northeast Wisconsin should stay just
north of the forecast area early this morning. Best differential
cyclonic vorticity advection at 500 mb with these showers will
shift to the east, and take any lingering showers in that
direction.

The region will remain in a general northwest flow pattern at 500
mb today and tonight. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection
with an advancing 500 mb vorticity maximum will slide into the
area from the northwest this afternoon and early this evening.

Area forecast soundings are showing rather weak mean layer CAPE
developing this afternoon and early this evening, best in the
northern counties. The weak mean layer CAPE barely reaches the
-10 degree Celsius level in the south, so there is some question
 if any thunder is possible there. For now, will continue PoPs for
 showers and slight chances for thunder across the area this
 afternoon and early this evening.

It appears that another shot of cold air advection mainly tonight
will occur, which will reinforce the unseasonably cool
temperatures. Highs should remain in the middle to upper 60s, with
lows tonight into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

MONDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Cyclonic flow prevails aloft as a compact shortwave/vorticity
maximum slides southeast from the Minnesota Arrowhead into the
lower Great Lakes. An anomalously cold pocket aloft will
accompany the wave, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to around
-20 degrees Celsius by evening. This will result in steep lapse
rates, as we build a few hundred Joules of tall, skinny CAPE. This
should provide sufficient instability for scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with the
greatest chances to the northeast of Madison. Given the CAPE and
moisture profiles, gusty winds and small hail may be possible with
some of the showers and storms. Temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals, with highs in the 60s and lows right around 50.

TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

The upper flow becomes somewhat more progressive, with
northwesterly flow and rising heights aloft. This will support
surface high pressure as it slides southeast from Iowa into the
Ohio Valley by evening. Low-level southwesterly return flow will
kick in by the afternoon, with high temperatures reaching into the
mid 70s. We'll likely see some mid to high level cloud cover
ahead of the next wave approaching from the west.

WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Southern stream jet energy advances east-northeast from the Four
Corners region into the mid Missouri valley. This occurs in
concert with northern stream energy cascading southeast from the
northern Rockies into the central Great Plains. At least partial
phasing is suggested by the guidance, with a 90 to 100 knot speed
max developing over Wisconsin Wednesday evening. Southern
Wisconsin should be near the left exit region, with jet-level
divergence maximized around 00z Thursday. The upper wave will help
spin up a surface low over the northern High Plains Wednesday
morning, with the slowly occluding cyclone tracking east into
northern or central Wisconsin Wednesday night. Southern Wisconsin
will be in the warm sector on Wednesday, with south to
southwesterly winds advecting a good supply of warmth and
moisture. As dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s, moderate
instability is forecast to build late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. We'll also see
around 30 to 40 knots of west to southwesterly deep layer shear
Wednesday afternoon, becoming largely unidirectional and westerly
overnight. All of this suggests a potential severe weather risk
for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, so keep up with the
forecast. Heavy rain is also possible, given strong moisture
transport, precipitable water values over 2 inches, and deep warm
cloud depth. Precipitation should be on the downswing late
Wednesday night as the surface cold front pushes south into
northern Illinois.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is low.

The cold front should be located to our south Thursday morning,
but a series of ripples in the mid to upper flow should initiate a
surface wave on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This may
help pull the front back to the north and renew our shower and
thunderstorm chances on Thursday and/or Friday. This scenario is
somewhat supported by both the GFS and ECMWF models, with some
timing differences among them. Rain chances during this period are
a little murky, but seasonal temperatures should prevail.

Another wave will bring clouds and perhaps a chance for showers
on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

West winds will gust up to around 20 knots at times today. Mainly
broken cumulus clouds are expected by this afternoon, with chances
for showers and a few storms. These may linger into early this
evening. Stratocumulus clouds may linger in far northern portions
of the area tonight, with clearing skies over most of the rest of
the area. Winds should weaken during this time. More chances for
showers and a few storms are forecast for Monday afternoon. Gusty
west to northwest winds are expected once again, possibly gusting
in the 20 to 25 knot range.

MARINE...

West winds will gust to around 20 knots today, with good low
level mixing and a fairly tight pressure gradient. Any high waves
will be over the open waters of Lake Michigan.

West to northwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Monday, with stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.
Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning, with gusty offshore winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Monday THROUGH Saturday...SPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday. There are chances for
Thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday. Some of the storms
could be strong on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

LMZ643>646-260900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm is possible into the early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday, and again
on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

There are slight chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and
Monday afternoon. There are chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday. Some of the storms could be strong Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

SPM

www.weather.gov/mkx