Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

538 
WHUS73 KMKX 081547
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN TONIGHT...

.WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-090000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.170109T0000Z-170109T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
947 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BACKING SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
  SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

447 
WHUS73 KMKX 082117
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...

.SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES AND IN ICE FREE AREAS.

AFTER A BREAK BREAK ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-090530-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.170109T0000Z-170109T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
317 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS
  EVENING...VEERING SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
  WILL EASE A BIT EARLY IN THE MORNING.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING
  EARLY IN THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

530 
WHUS73 KMKX 090326
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...

.SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE TOWARD PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN AND IN ICE FREE AREAS.

AFTER A BREAK ON MONDAY... WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-091130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170109T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
926 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
  WINDS WILL EASE A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 2 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING
  EARLY IN THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

036 
WHUS73 KMKX 090954
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
354 AM CST MON JAN 9 2017

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
FURTHER WEAKENS. HIGHER WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

AFTER A BREAK TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-091200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170109T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
354 AM CST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
  WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

671 
WHUS73 KMKX 091208
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
608 AM CST MON JAN 9 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS. 

LMZ643>646-092015-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170109T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.170110T0000Z-170111T0900Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
608 AM CST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
  THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH A
  FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS
  TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
336 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Keeping an eye on MVFR clouds over north central WI that have
been drifting slowly southward toward the Fox River Valley.
However, the leading edge of the clouds has been thinning and
dissipating since 08z. Thinking this trend will continue through
the early morning as increasing subsidence spreads in from the
west.

Light winds and sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the
15 to 20 range as 925H temps warm to around -12. Few locations may
even break into the lower 20s.

Approaching short wave trof over eastern Rockies and rapid return
of low to mid-level moisture will result in clouds rapidly
increasing and thickening late this afternoon and evening. Strong
warm air advection and moisture advection is expected this
evening, tapering off after midnight. 850H low level jet of 50kts
pivots rapidly across srn WI overnight. Moderate layer q-vector
convergence passes through overnight. Thinking there will be
enough forcing and moisture to result in a better chance for some
-sn during the overnight. Lift briefly in deeper dendritic growth
zone so beefed up pops to mid-high chance levels across northern
half of CWA, trailing off to schc in the far south. Possible some
northern locations could receive a quick half inch to inch of
light snow accumulation with QPF of a trace to 0.04".

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A progressive flow pattern will be in place aloft. This pattern
will feature deepening upper troughing that will progress from the
Pacific States on Monday into the central CONUS on Tuesday.
Surface cyclogenesis will commence over the central Plains Monday
night, with the deepening low tracking northeast towards the
Michigan Upper Peninsula by Tuesday evening. The primary concerns
during this period are precipitation types and amounts, along
with the potential for accumulating snow on Monday night.

Our first shot at precipitation should arrive Monday afternoon or
evening coincident with a push of warm, most advection associated
with a weak perturbation passing through ahead of the upper trough
to our west. Temperature profiles and saturation within the
dendrite growth zone suggest this precipitation would be in the
form of snow. Only light accumulations are expected through
Monday evening.

Better forcing for ascent arrives Monday night into Tuesday with
a renewed push of warm, moist advection ahead of the surface low.
Additional forcing will also be present with jet level divergence
and increasing cyclonicity by Tuesday afternoon. As the low-level
warm push arrives, precipitation types should transition from snow
Monday night, to a mix of sleet and freezing rain early Tuesday
morning, to rain late Tuesday morning. While the period of mixed
precip should be brief, will need to watch pavement temperatures
carefully during the morning hours given the cold antecedent
conditions. The precipitation should transition back to snow late
Tuesday afternoon or evening before ending as cold air wraps into
the area behind the departing surface low.

Light snow accumulations are possible Monday night, with the best
odds in our northern service area. A consensus of forecast models
suggests the potential for 2 to 3 inches in Sheboygan and Fond du
Lac, decreasing to less than one half inch in our southwest.
Deterministic model solutions continue to keep the greater snow
totals to our north, but stay tuned in case this should change.
Only light accumulations, if any, are currently forecast Tuesday
evening as the low pressure system pulls away from southern
Wisconsin.

Look for seasonal temperatures on Monday, trending towards above
normal on Tuesday before cooling Tuesday evening following the
cold frontal passage.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is low.

The wave train continues into the extended, with low pressure
tracking near or just south of our area on Wednesday/Thursday.
Precipitation types with this system are still somewhat uncertain
as models have yet to converge on the most likely forecast track.

A low pressure system tracking through the Ohio valley will bring
more precipitation chances to southern Wisconsin early next week.

Near to below normal temperatures are expected during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Keeping an eye on MVFR clouds over north central and NE WI that
have been drifting slowly swd toward the Fox River Valley. However
the leading edge of the clouds has been thinning and dissipating a
bit since 08Z.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected today as high pressure ridge
moves across WI. Clouds will increase and thicken late this
afternoon and evening ahead of approaching low pressure trof.
Expect areas of -sn to affect srn WI from late evening through the
early morning. Visibilities and cigs may lower to MVFR for several
hours overnight. In addition, expect low level wind shear tonight
as strong low level jet pivots across WI.

&&

.MARINE...

Have let Small Craft Advisory expire at 09Z as winds continue to
diminish as pressure gradient weakens. Period of lighter winds
will be brief however as gusty south winds are expected to develop
rapidly late this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching
low pressure trof. Frequent wind gusts are expected to be greater
than 22 knots for much of the night so wl be posting new Small
Craft Advisory for the night time. Will be areas of freezing spray
tonight, especially north of Milwaukee where less ice cover is
expected. Hi resolution visible imagery from Saturday shows the
ice over the near shore waters from Milwaukee south to Winthrop
Harbor has thinned a bit despite the persistent cold temperatures.
Perhaps the offshore winds have carried the ice eastward resulting
in melting as it encountered the warmer lake surface temps toward
mid- lake.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Monday THROUGH Saturday...SPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-081200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
251 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-081200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
251 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SEVERAL PASSING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX