Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Milwaukee, WI

941 
WHUS73 KMKX 180843
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. 

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. 

LMZ643>646-181645-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-170318T1700Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
343 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
  EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET BUT HIGHER OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

509 
WHUS73 KMKX 181437
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

LMZ643>646-181700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-170318T1700Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
937 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET BUT HIGHER OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
649 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...A strong upper trough will move across WI tonight with a
cold frontal passage reaching Lake MI by 02-03Z. A few light
showers may occur. Brisk wnwly winds will occur after the frontal
passage and continue into early Sat afternoon. High pressure will
settle over srn WI for Sat night and Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Cigs around 1 kft over far ern WI along with
MVFR Vsbys will end early this evening as a cold front with brisk
wnwly winds arrive. A few light showers and MVFR cigs are then
expected later in the evening and into the overnight. The MVFR
cigs will continue through Sat AM with Cigs rising about 3 kft for
the afternoon. The clouds will become scattered from west to east
during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017)

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium Surface trough with stratus field
along and ahead of it, will shift off to the east this evening.
Low level cold advective regime kicks in with low level thermal
trough setting up across the area. Upstream 500 millibar wave
looking mostly sheared as it shifts se from the ern Dakotas, so
will opt to leave dry forecast going.

SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium 500 millibar low center proggd to
be across lower MI at the outset with our area on the western
periphery of associated cyclonic flow. However as the day wears on
we see heights build with increasing DAVA. A nw wind will persist
for much of the day with surface high starting nudge into wrn WI
later in the day. LLVL RH progs show highest RH in the east with
some decrease in the western CWA. 925 temps will be around 0 to
-2c so all in all looking like low/mid 40s for highs. Pretty much
in line with the MOS numbers.

LONG TERM...

Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence is High:

High pressure will bring quiet weather through the remainder of
the weekend. Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal
on Sunday, except for near Lake Michigan where onshore winds will
keep it cooler.

Sunday night and Monday...Forecast Confidence is Medium:

Low pressure and an associated cold front is expected to bring
rain to southern Wisconsin Sunday evening into early Monday. A
little thunder is not out of the question, but left thunder
mention out for now with the higher instability staying mainly
south of the WI/IL border. Still seeing a range in model highs on
Monday due to differences in how quick the front gets through.
Stuck with a blend of model temps for now.

Tuesday through Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High:

High pressure will return for Tue/Wed, bringing mostly sunny
skies. Temps will be back around normal behind the departed cold
front.

Models are in pretty good agreement showing strong low pressure
moving in late in the week. This will likely bring precip chances
back into the area Thursday and Friday. Looks like mainly rain
for this system, though could see a brief period of snow early on.
Near normal temps Thursday should warm back above normal Friday
with southern Wisconsin into the warm sector of the low.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Widespread IFR/LIFR stratus ahead of surface trough. Moisture
riding north ahead of this feature helping to reinforce this cloud
shield and some of the IFR vsbys we are seeing out there. With
the trough moving through this afternoon expect to see some
improvement into the evening hours with winds shifting more to the
west in the wake of the trough. Most of the guidance suggests
this as well though some MVFR cigs/vsbys may hang around for a
time this evening due to increasing caa/arrival of low level
thermal trough.

MARINE...

Surface trough passes to the east early this evening, so
the sse wind regime will be replaced by a wnw flow. The gradient
tightens up a bit later in the night into at least the first half of
Saturday, so once this initial small craft gets cleared up, we will
probably need to go with a second one to cover the wnw winds in
the wake of the trough.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643.

&&

Update...Gagan
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Saturday Night through Friday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-182045-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LMZ643>646-182045-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this evening north
of Port Washington. Gusty south winds and high waves are
expected.

Brisk west to northwest winds will likely reach Small Craft
Advisory levels again across the nearshore waters starting later
this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Brisk northwest winds will likely remain at Small Craft Advisory
levels through Saturday morning.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx