Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Milwaukee, WI

232 
WHUS73 KMKX 130913
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

.AFTER A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS AND WAVES WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL 
INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, 
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO
6 FEET TODAY, AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-131715-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.171213T1500Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
313 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTH  
  TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

757 
WHUS73 KMKX 131214
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
614 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

.AFTER A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW,
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. WAVES WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 6 FEET TODAY, AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-132015-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.171213T1214Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
614 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
THURSDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTH TO 
  30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

581 
WHUS73 KMKX 131527
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

.WINDS AND WAVES ARE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW, BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY, AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET 
TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-132330-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
927 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTH TO 
  30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HALBACH
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

126 
WHUS73 KMKX 132119
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING TONIGHT...

.WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING GUSTIER WITH WAVES ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-140530-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
319 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTH TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
 
* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HALBACH
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

727 
WHUS73 KMKX 140253
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE... 

LMZ643>646-141100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
853 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTH TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* WAVES: 5 TO 8 FEET THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING TO 2
  TO 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

620 
WHUS73 KMKX 140912
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CST THU DEC 14 2017

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING...

LMZ643>646-141500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0110.000000T0000Z-171214T1500Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
312 AM CST THU DEC 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS: NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 4 TO 6 FEET, THEN DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY LATE 
  MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
541 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Early Evening/00Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...

Have increased snow potential for late this evening into the
overnight hours across the northern half or so of the forecast
area, where an area of warm advection snow is expected to push
through from west to east. Amounts/impacts should be quite
minimal, with just flurries or very light snow showers expected.

The main band of snow is still expected to affect the region
starting tomorrow morning around daybreak. It still appears that
the heaviest snow will be most likely to fall along and north of a
line from Fond du Lac to Port Washington, with decreasing
confidence in amounts further to the southwest. New 00z guidance
will be coming in over the next few hours, and will hopefully
continue to tighten up expectations for the area of heaviest snow.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

The next 24 hours or so will be a tricky forecast for aviation
purposes. Initially this evening, a band of light snow is expected
to push in from the west, likely around or after midnight for most
sites. This activity should be quite light, with just flurries or
light snow showers expected. Vis may drop for a brief time to
MVFR, but impacts should be limited.

Around daybreak, a more organized band of snow is expected to
develop and push southeast into the region. All four terminals
(but especially KUES, KMKE, and KENW) will likely be on the
southwestern edge of the heavier snow, making amounts and impacts,
particularly visibility, quite challenging to forecast. While the
TAFs indicate a prolonged period of 1-2 SM visibility tomorrow
morning and early afternoon, breaks in the snow will be possible,
though are impossible to forecast this far in advance. Where the
heaviest band of snow does set up, several hours of moderate snow
can be expected.

In addition to the main band of snow, winds will come off the lake
tomorrow afternoon and evening, producing some lake effect snow,
which would affect all but KMSN. An additional period of IFR to
LIFR can be expected with any lake effect bands that form.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 244 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017)

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Mid-level clouds from strong upstream warm air advection already
spreading into south central WI this afternoon.  Trend will
continue.  Strongest warm air advection spreads across southern WI
from late evening through the overnight.  Enough low to mid level
moisture connection expected to possibly bring some light snow or
flurries to southern WI during this period.  Bumped up and expanded
pops across most of the area for later tonight.  Potential some
northern areas may receive one half inch to one inch by late
tonight.  Hence Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect for several
north central counties late tonight.

WEDNESDAY into WEDNESDAY EVENING - Confidence...Medium to High.

Short term guidance in good agreement on carrying low level
circulation and surface low pressure across southern WI/northern IL
on Wednesday.  GFS and NAM showing fairly good run to run
consistency with this feature.  Strong layer Q-vector convergence of
up to 50 units passes rapidly across southern WI late tonight and
Wednesday morning.  One worrisome snafu is potential for losing ice
crystals for a time in the southwest CWA as drier air wraps around
low pressure circulation, hence slightly lower confidence.  Did
include small chance for -zl/-zr in the southwest. Low level drying
remains more limited in the eastern CWA during the day. Cross
sections show impressive lift across northeast CWA in the dendritic
growth zone close to an area of sloping frontogenetical forcing.  In
addition, an inverted trof extending northwest from the low level
circulation may increase the convergence along the lakeshore areas
from Milwaukee to Sheboygan in the late afternoon into the early
evening.  Delta-T around 14-15C in the early evening with lake
induced Cape over 250J.  Part of the low level conditionally
unstable layer reaches the snow growth region as well.  With snow
liquid ratios around 15 to 1, expecting synoptic snowfall in the 3
to 6 inch range over northeast CWA.  However snowfall may be locally
heavier due to the elevated instability and lake enhancement.  Added
7" local amounts in the northeast.  Posted Winter Wx Advisory for
all of the northeast, with eastern areas continuing into the
evening.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We'll remain under a cold northwest flow regime through the end of
the work week. Thursday looks cloudy and we could see a few
flurries, but not really worth mentioning. On Friday, there's a
better looking short wave dropping south through the area and this
could bring a chance for some light snow. At this point, it looks
rather dry, so not too worried about any accumulations.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is low.

There continues to be model disagreement with the complicated
pattern this weekend. The upper pattern begins to flatten a bit,
or become less northwest oriented. Low pressure is expected to
develop west of the area on Saturday, but where it goes is rather
uncertain. The GFS has a low moving over Lake Superior while the
ECMWF has a low moving over central/southern Wisconsin. Right
now, most of the precip looks north of the forecast area. We
should warm up into the lower and mid 30s this weekend with the
somewhat milder flow returning. We'll have to keep an eye on that
low pressure track. These are the kind of system that can drift
south, resulting in some snow for southern Wisconsin. If it stays
north, we're warmer and drier.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

There's nothing of significance to latch onto early next week. The
upper flow does look for zonal, and thus more mild than what we'll
see this week. For now, the forecast is dry, but it's an active
flow, so we'll have to watch out for some stronger pieces of
energy that may produce some light, pesky precip.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Stratus continues to become more
cellular across eastern CWA last several hours. This trend should
continue through the late afternoon. Upstream strong warm air
advection over the northern Plains causing a rapid increase in mid
level clouds which have already advanced southeast into southern WI.
This trend will continue and possibly ceilings lowering to MVFR
later tonight.  Some light snow or flurries may accompany this warm
air advection surge overnight.  Accumulating snow associated with
passing low pressure will spread across parts of southern WI
Wednesday morning and afternoon with lower ceilings and vsbys.  May
be some patchy freezing drizzle in parts of south central WI.

MARINE...Potential for wind gusts reaching 25 knots will
continue into the evening.  Will continue Small Craft Advisory for
now, but if wind speeds continue to fall, may be able to cancel
early. Low pressure passing across southern WI/northern IL area on
Wednesday may clip far southern Lake Michigan in the afternoon.
Tightening pressure gradient associated with the low will cause
gusty southeast winds turning to the ENE on Wednesday, eventually
backing to the NNW Wednesday night.  These gusty winds will likely
reach Small Craft Advisory levels for a time.  Lake temperature
remains in the lower 40s, which is preventing freezing spray
development.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for
     WIZ052-059-060-064>066.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     WIZ046-047-051-057-058.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Boxell
Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Tomorrow through next Tuesday...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132045-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
315 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin A combination of gusty winds and
falling temperatures will result in wind chills in the single digits
above zero later tonight and Tuesday morning.n, and southeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Light snow is expected to develop late tonight across parts of south
central Wisconsin.  Snowfall of up to an inch is possible by
sunrise.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight for
the Montello, Portage, Berlin, Fond du Lac and Beaver Dam areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of southeast and
south central Wisconsin, along and north of a line from Milwaukee to
Jefferson to Portage. The advisory is in effect on Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Snowfall amounts will range from around 6 to 7
inches in the Sheboygan area, trailing off to 2 to 4 inches along
the western boundary of the advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, however your snowfall
reports will be appreciated on Wednesday.

LMZ643>646-132045-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
315 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect into this evening for
lingering gusty northwest winds, and higher waves toward the open
water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels again Wednesday
into Wednesday night and at times Saturday into Sunday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK/SD