Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Milwaukee, WI

440 
WHUS73 KMKX 270306
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
906 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING MONDAY EVENING...

LMZ643>646-271515-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.171128T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
906 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO
3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING...BECOMING 
  SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE 
  EXPECTED AT TIMES. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
  OCCUR BETWEEN SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON MONDAY EVENING AND
  MONDAY NIGHT.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

142 
WHUS73 KMKX 270850
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LMZ643>646-271700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.171128T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
250 AM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING...BECOMING 
  SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE 
  EXPECTED AT TIMES. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY
  MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH
  OF PORT WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

459 
WHUS73 KMKX 271539
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 AM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LMZ643>646-272345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.171128T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
939 AM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 
  15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT 
  TIMES. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY 
  MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR 
  NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

817 
WHUS73 KMKX 272025
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
225 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LMZ643>646-280430-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.171128T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
225 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KNOTS...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING
  TUESDAY.

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF PORT
  WASHINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

487 
WHUS73 KMKX 280304
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...STROUGH SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

LMZ643>646-281115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
904 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  KNOTS...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING 
  TUESDAY. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF PORT 
  WASHINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

482 
WHUS73 KMKX 280305 CCA
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

LMZ643>646-281115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
905 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  KNOTS...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING 
  TUESDAY. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF PORT 
  WASHINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

133 
WHUS73 KMKX 280846
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2017

...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE...

LMZ643>646-281700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
246 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KNOTS...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER
  THIS MORNING.

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET ...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY TUESDAY 
  MORNING. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

032 
WHUS73 KMKX 281514
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
914 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY EASING TODAY...

LMZ643>646-282100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171128T2100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
914 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KNOTS...BECOMING WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER THIS MORNING
  INTO THE AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING ...TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
  THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
532 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Everything appears to be on track this evening. High clouds moving
overhead may slow the pace of cooling this evening, though
overall low temps appear to be reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Generally light winds are expected tonight, with just high clouds
moving through the region. A little light fog isn't out of the
question around sunrise, tomorrow, though the overall threat is
too low at this time to include in the TAFs.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow, becoming somewhat
gusty at most sites through the afternoon. A steady breeze will
then likely continue into tomorrow night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 240 PM CDT SUN NOV 26 2017)

TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium to High.

More quiet November weather this period. Gradual WAA becomes more
pronounced into Monday with 850/925 southwest winds resulting in
thermal ridge axis leaning into the area. Temps several degrees
above guidance seems reasonable especially away from the cool
influence of the lake. SE component more pronounced there with lake
temps in the 40s should keep a cooler regime in place. Plenty of of
mid level cloud cover upstream trending this way in the southeast
mid/upper level flow.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Mild conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.  Breezy southwest winds should keep
temperatures milder Monday night despite longer night time. Short
term guidance in agreement on carrying cold front through southern
WI during the morning and early aftn Tuesday.  Breezy south winds
will carry a brief return of deeper moisture into the area prior to
cold front arrival. Precipitable water increases to around three
quarters inch Wednesday night while right entrance region clips the
far south. NAM remains driest while GFS significantly moister. ECMWF
a blend of the two.  Enough forcing will be briefly available to
possibly squeeze out a few light showers over the southern and
eastern CWA. Shower threat will end quickly in the afternoon as
drier air quickly returns as lift slides off to the east.  Short
wave ridging will quickly develop over the region resulting in quiet
conditions returning Tuesday night and Wednesday with seasonal
temperatures.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Low trending
to Medium.

Medium range guidance in better agreement on more progressive short
wave trof moving through the upper midwest Wednesday night and
Thursday.  Previous deterministic runs of the ECMWF had shown
developing low pressure over the lower MI area on Thursday.  However
00Z run faster and weaker with low developing farther east north of
eastern Great Lakes region.  More progressive, open wave solutions
have less chance to pull deeper moisture northward into southern WI
ahead of associated passing cold front on Thursday. Ensembles coming
into better agreement on more progressive open trof moving through
the western Great Lakes as well. 12Z ECMWF continues faster,drier
solution while GEM/GFS slower and wetter Will continue chance pops
for western areas, but lower likely values in the east as may be
enough time for deeper moisture to surge northward before drier air
surges in from the west. Also, due to uncertainty regarding low
level thermal structure of atmosphere, will continue a period of
mixed ptypes later Wednesday night into Thursday morning before
transitioning to liquid.

Dry zonal flow sets up on Friday before transitioning to southwest
steering flow ahead of amplifying upstream long wave trof over the
western CONUS.  This should ensure temperatures remaining above
normal for the first few days of December with dry conditions
continuing.  Eventually the upstream long wave will transition to a
northeast moving low pressure system.  This system may bring a mix
of rain and snow to southern WI around the 6th or 7th.

MARINE...Will let going small craft ride to expiration. Gusts are
getting close in spots. Another small craft will likely be needed
starting tomorrow afternoon as south/southeast winds ramp up with
tight pressure gradient setting up once again.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-272130-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
323 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-272130-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
323 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Strong southerly winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory
conditions Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Gusty winds are expected again Wednesday night into Thursday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK