Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Milwaukee, WI

421 
WHUS73 KMKX 251532
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 AM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND PASSING LOW PRESSURE...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. 
AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.

LMZ643>646-252345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.170126T0200Z-170126T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
932 AM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WINDS: EAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
  WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND THIS 
  EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

339 
WHUS73 KMKX 252112
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND PASSING LOW PRESSURE...

.AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
WINDS. 

LMZ643>646-260515-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.170126T0200Z-170126T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
312 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KNOTS.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

585 
WHUS73 KMKX 260326
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND PASSING LOW PRESSURE...

.BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND 
THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS DUE TO THE 
OFFSHORE WINDS.

LMZ643>646-261130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170126T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
926 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 
  KNOTS. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

891 
WHUS73 KMKX 260910
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 AM CST THU JAN 26 2017

...GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE 
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS. THE WINDS WILL 
BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. 

LMZ643>646-261715-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170126T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
310 AM CST THU JAN 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 
  KNOTS. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

059 
WHUS73 KMKX 261454
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
854 AM CST THU JAN 26 2017

...GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE 
OPEN WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS. 

LMZ643>646-261800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170126T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
854 AM CST THU JAN 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
307 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Will continue higher qpf and snowfall totals ranging from an inch or
two in the far southeast to close to 8 inches in the northwest.
Strongest forcing occurs early this morning as low level jet grazes
southern WI, possibly resulting in isolated thunder with weak
MUCAPE.  Will include Racine and Kenosha counties in ongoing Winter
Weather Advisory due to burst of moderate rain and snow expected
this morning.  Wl continue Advisory elsewhere, however plenty of
consternation due to high QPF totals from most models showing 8
inches common across north and west.  However due to partial melting
of snow and warm surface temps, wl hold off on upgrading to warning
for now.  Also would like to see more widespread higher DBZ
spreading into southern WI with strong low level warm air advection
on nose of low level jet.  Strongest sloping frontogenetical forcing
through mid-morning across the south however in that banding, low
level temperatures warm and does not favor larger dendritic snow
growth.  By this afternoon, frontogenetical forcing has shifted off
to the east and mainly mid level deformation north of passing mid-
level circulation the main driver. Deformation does appear to linger
over northern CWA later this morning and early afternoon before
shifting slowly southeast.  Snowfall amounts expected to approach 8
inches in the northwest but accumulations over a greater than 24
hour period expected.  Another reason to not upgrade to a warning at
this time, but wl be watching this area closely this morning for
possible upgrade.  Short term guidance in good agreement on slightly
farther southward track of low pressure over northern IL this
morning resulting in higher snowfall totals across northern and
western CWA. Expect slightly drying aloft to cut back on
precipitation for a time in the southeast, until deformation forcing
slides through this afternoon and tonight.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Cold advection regime with low level cyclonic flow in place. While
brief mid level ridging will be in place during the morning another
500 millibar wave shifts into northern WI during the afternoon. The
consensus of the progs shows the leading edge of DCVA into the nrn
CWA during the afternoon.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
The pattern looks to consist of periodic shortwaves dropping into
the area within the northwest mid level flow. Fairly cold 850 temps
with steep low level lapse rates suggests there will be snow showers
and/or flurries from time to time. Choosing to handle it with
carrying small pops for snow showers. Any impact expected to be
little with overall QPF on the low minor side in this regime.
Temperatures will be back to more normal January like levels as
well.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - Confidence...Low
We transition to more of an anticyclonic regime in the mid levels
with westerly 850 flow resulting in waa pushing aside the
persistence of the low level thermal trough. A 500 millibar
shortwave quickly approaches from the northern Plains. At this time
the GFS has this wave and influence of waa further south into
portions srn/central WI than the Euro with the GEM more of a
compromise solution for later Monday/Monday night. Low shifts east
Tuesday with cold advection in its wake. Sticking with the
Superblend pop guidance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Low cigs and frequent low vsbys expected in
snow or rain and snow today into tonight as low pressure passes
just to the south. Lowest vsbys could occur this morning over
south with a small threat of thunder, however prolonged period of
light snow will affect area this aftn into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Tightening pressure gradient ahead of approaching low
pressure may cause a few gusts to around 25 knots today. Low
pressure taking a slightly farther southward track to east today
across northern IL and far southern Lake MI. Waves today will
reach 4 feet due to the increase onshore winds.

The winds will turn to the north today and northwest tonight as
pressure gradient tightens as the low moves away from the region.
Frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected tonight into Thursday
in this tighter pressure gradient. Hence wl post Small Craft
Advisory for tonight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for WIZ046-
     047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-252130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
317 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK
TOWARD WISCONSIN RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGHEST STORM TOTALS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF MADISON
TOWARDS THE DELLS...WITH THE LOWEST TOWARD KENOSHA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED HOWEVER YOUR SNOWFALL
REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-252130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
317 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LIKELY
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX