Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Milwaukee, WI

673 
WWUS53 KMKX 180043
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
743 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

WIC049-065-180100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-170518T0100Z/
Lafayette WI-Iowa WI-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR LAFAYETTE AND IOWA COUNTIES...

At 743 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Muscoda to Belmont to Bellevue,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Darlington, Shullsburg, Belmont, Benton,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Somers, Wiota, Highland, Ridgeway, Avoca,
Orion, Linden, New Diggings, South Wayne, Cobb, Lamont and Rewey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4320 9043 4321 9029 4316 9018 4316 9016
      4282 8984 4251 8984 4251 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 259DEG 46KT 4310 9052 4272 9033 4227 9044 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DDV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
554 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Tight pressure gradient ahead of low
pressure moving through western Iowa will continue to generate
strong gusty winds for 1-2 more hours before insolation weakens.
Otherwise, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will affect
south central WI this evening, and possible southeast Wisconsin
late in the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 235 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017)

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

The focus through the evening hours will be on the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Not much has changed with the setup, with
plenty of moisture, instability, and wind flow with strong low
pressure approaching from the southwest. The main severe threat
through the afternoon hours will be wind/hail. Wind shear will be
stronger toward the evening hours, increasing the potential for a
tornado threat.

Meso models show the western half of the forecast area to have the
best potential for storms through the late afternoon and already
seeing a few storms in the west. Some questions as to areal extent
and coverage of storms through late afternoon, with a couple models
showing a farther eastward extent of scattered storms. A more
focused line of storms is likely during the evening hours, moving in
from the southwest, then spreading eastward by late evening. Models
continue to show somewhat of a weakening trend toward Lake Michigan.

Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with a few showers
lingering overnight in the northwest toward the low. A round of
light showers is possible tomorrow, from mid morning into the
afternoon as a cold front drops through the area. Temps will likely
cool behind the front from northwest to southeast from late morning
into the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Showers and t-storms expected to return to southern WI later Friday
night into Saturday as upper ridge slides off to the east and low
pressure over the southwest fills and gets ejected northeast into
the central and northern Plains.  Short wave reamplifies and takes
on slight negative tilt as it progresses through the northern Plains
and re-energizes late in the period. Will continue likely wording
for later Friday night into Saturday when axis of strong low level
jet passes across southern WI, in rough timing with potential
mesoscale convective eddy generated by upstream plains convection.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Cooler weather is expected early in the period as the main rain area
moves off to the northeast.  Differences in extended guidance on the
strength and timing of upper low over southern Canada through early
next week.  However Medium range guidance in somewhat agreement on
short wave trof rotating around upper low across the Upper Midwest
around Tuesday or Wednesday bringing another chance of showers and
storms to the area.

AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

A couple more rounds of storms are expected this afternoon and
evening ahead of approaching low pressure. Some of the storms may be
severe. A few showers may linger past midnight, with another round
of showers possible tomorrow as the cold front slides through. The
showers tomorrow will be on the light side.

Low level wind shear looks possible again tonight...from around
mid/late evening through late tonight.

Outside of lower visibilities in thunderstorms, mainly VFR
conditions are expected into tonight. Will likely see lower ceilings
tomorrow near and behind the advancing cold front.

MARINE...

Southerly winds will remain gusty through Thursday, veering to the
southwest by Thursday morning. With little to no onshore component
to the winds, waves should generally stay in the 3 to 5 foot range
through Thursday afternoon.

After a brief break, will likely see winds/waves pick back up
Thursday evening into Friday. Another Small Craft Advisory will
probably be needed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Tonight/Thursday and Marine...DDV
Thursday Night through Wednesday/Aviation...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-182030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
319 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over south
central Wisconsin through this evening with a chance for
thunderstorms in the southeast. The period of greatest concern
for severe thunderstorms is late this afternoon into the early
evening especially across south central Wisconsin where there is a
greater risk of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

A tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm CDT for south central
Wisconsin along and west of a line from Fond du Lac to Jefferson
to Janesville.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
evening. A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
damaging winds are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-182030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
319 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

A small craft advisory remains in effect for breezy southerly
winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening. An isolated thunderstorm may produce large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The small craft advisory remains in effect through Thursday
afternoon for breezy southerly winds.

Northeast winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again
Thursday night into early Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday
evening. A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
damaging winds are possible.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
656 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 N JANESVILLE          42.71N 89.02W
05/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       ROCK               WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
700 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE PADDOCK LAKE      42.56N 88.06W
05/17/2017                   KENOSHA            WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0630 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE SULLIVAN          42.96N 88.56W
05/17/2017                   JEFFERSON          WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
711 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW MERRIMAC          43.37N 89.64W
05/17/2017                   SAUK               WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT ATKINSON           42.93N 88.84W
05/17/2017                   JEFFERSON          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            5 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
719 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE SULLIVAN          42.97N 88.55W
05/17/2017  M65 MPH          JEFFERSON          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED AT NWS MILWUAKEE/SULLIVAN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
725 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             WATERFORD               42.76N 88.22W
05/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       RACINE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC