Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Milwaukee, WI

732 
WWUS53 KMKX 160436
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

WIC021-111-160500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-170716T0500Z/
Columbia WI-Sauk WI-
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND EAST CENTRAL SAUK COUNTIES...

At 1135 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Prairie Du
Sac, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Prairie Du Sac, Lake Wisconsin, West Baraboo, North Freedom,
Merrimac, Rock Springs, Leland and Devils Lake St Park.

People attending The Sauk County Fair should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4351 8992 4347 8960 4329 8960 4329 8964
      4331 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 005DEG 15KT 4337 8977 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

HALBACH

274 
WWUS53 KMKX 160450
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

WIC021-111-160500-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-170716T0500Z/
Columbia WI-Sauk WI-
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND EAST
CENTRAL SAUK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However heavy rain 
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4351 8992 4347 8960 4329 8960 4329 8964
      4331 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 005DEG 15KT 4331 8978 

$$

HALBACH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
920 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...Scattered strong thunderstorms will affect northern CWA
through the late evening. Would expect some weakening with loss of
insolation but expect at least the scattered activity to continue
into parts of the south, ending after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...Strong thunderstorms currently moving from Fox River
Valley southward toward western Sheboygan and Fond du Lac
counties, producing strong wind gusts of 50 kts. Currently moving
south, but if they expand eastward or drift southeast, will need
to issue Special Marine Warning. Strong thunderstorms have formed
along a cold front which will be moving south across southern Lake
Michigan overnight. Thunderstorms will end after midnight. Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 654 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017)

UPDATE...Scattered thunderstorms developing as expected along
weak cold front over northern Wisconsin, extending roughly from
the bay of Green Bay to near Black River Falls. MUCape values of
2-4K joules and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 degrees allowing even
weak convergence along the front to cause stronger updrafts and a
few severe storms north of Green Bay. Scattered storms should push
into northern CWA around 0130-02Z and progress southeast. Not sure
how much punch they'll have as they sag into southern half of CWA
but primary concerns are hail to 1-1.5" and gusts to 60 mph.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Scattered storms have developed over central
WI and progressing southeast. Will affect southern WI from 0130z
until 06z or so. Still expect a period of lower MVFR cigs later
tonight into Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The SPC mesoanalysis site is showing an axis of high CAPE up to
4000 j/kg over central MN and northern/central WI as dewpoints
rise in the lower 70s just ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave.
There is currently one little storm developing in the southern
U.P. and this is in line with how the evolution of storms is
expected per the HRRR model and other meso models. The
approaching shortwave trough is apparent as a darker region on the
low level water vapor channel (GOES-16 Ch 10) and there are some
cu developing in this area. This is just ahead of the wind shift
to the northwest.

This is the area to watch over the next couple of hours for
convective development as it gets into central WI. The HRRR model
has been very consistent today, although has trended a little
slower with timing of storms through southern WI. This is on par
with the 12Z WRF and NAM models.

SPC expanded the slight risk a little to include all of southern
WI now. This is not a surprise, as any discrete cells that develop
toward central WI could evolve into a bowing line segment as they
organize and head south-southeast with the Corfidi vectors.

Sunday... Forecast confidence is High.

Light winds and lingering low level moisture during the overnight
hours could lead to patchy fog and low clouds over southern WI
late tonight into Sunday morning. Clouds will gradually scatter
out through the day and a steady northeast wind ushers drier air
into the region. High temps will be around 70 lakeshore and upper
70s well inland.

Sunday night and Monday...Forecast Confidence...High

An upper ridge extends into Wisconsin Monday with the digging
shortwave moving across the eastern Great Lakes. Weak 700 mb
downward motion. Weak warm air advection begins later monday at
850 mb. Surface high pressure across Wisconsin will be centered
across the Great Lakes Monday afternoon. While south winds develop
over south central Wisconsin, a lake Breeze will continue over
the southeast.

A strong cap will result in fair fair weather Cumulus.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper flow becomes more zonal Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
zonal flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday and a bit more
northwest Friday, as a broad trough forms near and then just east
of the Hudson Bay area.

A warmer and more humid return flow sets up for Tuesday and
Wednesday. As the upper flow becomes more zonal, the chance of
thunderstorms will return from Tuesday evening into Friday with
several periods of thunderstorms. the best chances are Wednesday
into Thursday with a moderate to heavy rain potential, but there
are indications this may set up more towards central and northern
Wisconsin.

Saturday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A rather strong shortwave moves across southern canada just north
of the Dakota's and Minnesota. The 00Z ECMWF is a little slower
with this, but both models bring another round of thunderstorms,
with heavy rains.

BEACHES...

Breezy north-northeast winds will cause high waves near the
lakeshore on Sunday. There is a high swim risk for all of the
lakeshore counties. A beach hazards statement will be in effect.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Scattered storms are expected along a weak cold front that will
slide through southern WI this evening. A few storms could be
severe with damaging winds and large hail. Stratus with ceilings
around 2000 feet, along with some patchy fog, will be possible in
the wake of the storms overnight. Clouds will gradually scatter
out early Sunday afternoon as drier air works into the area on
steady northeast winds.

MARINE...

North to northeast winds arriving in the wake of a passing cold
front should have gusts to 25 knots and result in waves of 4 to 6
feet on Sunday. Look for winds and waves to subside late Sunday
evening. A small craft advisory is in effect.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LMZ643-
     644.

&&

Update...99
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...99
Sunday Night through Saturday...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
603 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-162315-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
603 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few of these
thunderstorms may become severe, producing damaging wind up to 60
mph, and large hail up to 1 inch. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
in effect until 1 am CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There is a high swim risk on Sunday. Dangerous swim conditions,
breaking waves and currents are expected along the Lake Michigan
shore. Stay away from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls and
river outlets.

There is a chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday afternoon through
Saturday. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, with heavy
rain possible. Keep up with the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

LMZ643>646-162315-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
603 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few of these
thunderstorms may become severe, producing damaging wind up to 60
mph, and large hail up to 1 inch. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
in effect for the near shore waters until 1 am CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Northeast winds and waves are expected to reach Small Craft
Advisory levels Sunday and Sunday night.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday afternoon
through Saturday. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
954 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

WIZ046-047-051-057>059-160400-
Dodge-Columbia-Marquette-Green Lake-Washington-Fond Du Lac-
954 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN FOND DU LAC...
GREEN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 953 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Ripon, moving
south at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Ripon, Mayville, Horicon, Juneau,
Berlin, Lomira, Fall River, Markesan, Theresa, Princeton, Oakfield,
Rosendale, Green Lake, Brandon, Burnett, Lamartine and Byron.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4390 8888 4390 8856 4344 8831 4337 8905
      4398 8919 4398 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 347DEG 24KT 4382 8881

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE FOND DU LAC       43.77N 88.44W
07/15/2017                   FOND DU LAC        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT 6TH AND ELLIS STREETS IN CITY
            OF FOND DU LAC.

&&

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             BERLIN                  43.97N 88.95W
07/15/2017  E0.88 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN BERLIN.

&&

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

WIZ056-057-160430-
Columbia-Sauk-
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA AND
NORTHEASTERN SAUK COUNTIES...

At 1050 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Reedsburg to near Baraboo to near
Portage to near Pardeeville. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Portage, Reedsburg, Columbus, Wisconsin Dells, Lake
Wisconsin, Lodi, Lake Delton, Poynette, Pardeeville, Fall River, West
Baraboo, Rio, Cambria, Arlington, Wyocena, North Freedom, Otsego,
Merrimac and Rock Springs.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4364 8913 4329 8901 4330 8972 4339 8996
      4364 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 330DEG 19KT 4358 8999 4346 8966 4350 8941 4357
8922

GAGAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1059 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

WIZ059-060-065-066-160445-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-Ozaukee-Washington-
1059 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OZAUKEE...
MILWAUKEE...NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 1059 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Hartford to 8 miles north of Merton to
near Slinger to Jackson to near Newburg. Movement was southeast at 35
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Waukesha, West Allis, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, Brookfield,
Greenfield, Menomonee Falls, Mequon, Hartford, Whitefish Bay,
Greendale, Pewaukee, Brown Deer, Cedarburg, Sussex, St. Francis,
Hartland, Hales Corners and Delafield.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4294 8797 4296 8825 4312 8840 4330 8841
      4330 8828 4333 8817 4342 8811 4321 8790
      4317 8788 4312 8790 4307 8787 4305 8789
      4302 8790 4297 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 328DEG 31KT 4330 8840 4327 8835 4327 8824 4330
8814 4336 8810

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1111 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             1 SSW SLINGER           43.32N 88.29W
07/15/2017  M0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 144 AND HWY 60 IN
            SLINGER.

&&

SPM