Frost Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

173 
WWUS73 KMKX 021528
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...FROST TONIGHT...

.The cool weather pattern will continue tonight as skies clear
and temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s by Wednesday
morning. Frost is expected to form for at least a few hours over
much of southern Wisconsin.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-022330-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.170503T0600Z-170503T1300Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
1028 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

A Frost Advisory remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT 
Wednesday. 

* TIMING...Late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

* TEMPERATURE...Lower to middle 30s.
 
* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged if left 
  uncovered away from Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$
Collar

510 
WWUS73 KMKX 030146
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
846 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...FROST TONIGHT...

.The cool weather pattern will continue tonight as skies clear
and temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s by Wednesday
morning. Frost is expected to form for at least a few hours over
much of southern Wisconsin.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031000-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.170503T0600Z-170503T1300Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
846 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

a Frost Advisory remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT
Wednesday. 

* TIMING...Late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

* TEMPERATURE...Lower to middle 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged if left 
  uncovered away from Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

312 
WWUS73 KMKX 030815
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

...FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...

.Frost formation will occur this morning as temperatures drop into
the lower to middle 30s at most locations over southern Wisconsin. 
Areas of frost may occur again late tonight but slightly milder
temperatures and some clouds should prevent a widespread frost. 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031300-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T1300Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, 
Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, 
Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, 
Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, 
Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, 
Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, 
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, 
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, 
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont,
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
315 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

a Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM CDT this morning. 

* TIMING...Through 8 AM CDT. 

* TEMPERATURE...Lower to middle 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged if left 
  uncovered away from Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1108 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
Not much change from the previous aviation discussion. The showers
continue to dissipate. Moisture wrapping around the slowly
exiting large low pressure system will bring MVFR CIGS to the area
tonight through much of Tuesday. Improving CIGS to VFR should
begin to occur later Tuesday afternoon into the evening. A tight
pressure gradient will keep the brisk westerly winds in place
through Tuesday afternoon, diminishing in the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 846 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017)

UPDATE...
Forecast is on track. The showers are diminishing due to the lack
of heating, but will remain in the forecast through about sunrise
tomorrow. The cloud shield remains expansive and won't be
clearing out of southern Wisconsin until Tuesday evening. As the
surface low lifts northeast tonight, we get into a better surface
pressure gradient, which will help keep the winds elevated through
Tuesday. Hang in there, sunshine and warmer temps are really
close.

MARINE...
Brisk westerly winds will continue through Tuesday as strong low
pressure lifts northeast toward eastern Lake Superior. The
offshore winds will keep the higher waves out toward open water.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 700 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017)

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
The very large, stacked low pressure system over central Wisconsin
this evening will continue to lift east northeast overnight. A
huge shield of cloudiness is wrapping around this system and will
result in widespread MVFR CIGS through most of the TAF period.
CIGS will begin to scatter out and lift to VFR levels from west to
east toward evening on Tuesday. The scattered showers across the
area this evening will gradually diminish tonight, but some
isolated showers could linger into Tuesday morning. Expect
southwest winds to gradually veer to west this evening and remain
elevated around 12 to 15kts with gusts to 25kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 215 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017)

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

Widespread showers will persist into late afternoon, winding down
during the evening. Small hail will remain possible through late
afternoon. A few showers will probably linger overnight into Tue
morning as low pressure slowly pulls away to the east. Dry weather
is expected by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the
west.

Breezy conditions will persist tonight through the day Tuesday.

Temperatures tonight will be fairly close to normal given the
expected cloudy skies. Lingering clouds and cool temps aloft will
keep high temps below normal Tuesday.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Changing weather conditions Tuesday night across southern Wisconsin
still looks to favor a period of clearing skies into Wednesday
morning.  925H temps look to fall to around 4C across most of the
CWA by 12z Wednesday as boundary layer winds diminish due to passing
high pressure.  Also increasing subsidence from left entrance region
of jet should help to thin and clear any lingering cloud cover.
Hence expected conditions favoring temperatures falling into the mid
30s across southern WI with light sfc winds by early morning. Will
continue to mention frost later Tuesday night using patchy or areas
wording.

Otherwise, Wednesday looks quiet with some increase in high clouds
likely from the west and southwest as short wave ridging and high
pressure moves off to the east of the area.  A warmer day is
expected for Wednesday with highs rising into the lower 60s away
from the lake.  Short term guidance in reasonable agreement on low
pressure and amplifying trof over the MO/AR area Wednesday night.
Phasing of a northern stream short wave with the southern low will
result in further strengthening of this system as it turns to the
northeast on Thursday.  GEM, ECMWF and GFS now all taking this low
on a more northerly track across the Ohio Valley into the eastern
Great Lakes by Friday.  For now wl keep southeast WI dry on
Thursday, but if this trend continues, wl need to add some rain
chances in future forecasts.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Developing mid-week split flow quickly changes to a amplifying short
wave situation in southern stream Wednesday Night into Thursday.
Latest medium range guidance in general agreement on taking
strengthening low pressure on more northeast track from the TN
Valley region toward the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday.
GFS ensembles show some uncertainty with regards to track of low but
a few more northerly members could get close enough to spread light
rain into far southeast WI around Friday.  Otherwise, a weakening
short wave caught in the northern stream may bring a few showers
close to southern WI on Thursday.

For the later periods, GFS now in better agreement with ECMWF and
Canadian in return of colder north to northwest steering winds
across the western Great Lakes through the weekend, behind long wave
troffing undergoing further amplification over the eastern Great
Lakes.  ECMWF remains most aggressive solution bringing compact,
strong mid-level wave across WI on Saturday, while this feature is
much weaker on GEM/GFS.  Will continue chance of showers on Saturday
with some recovery in temperature expected by Monday. Dry conditions
expected to finish off the weekend.

Colder weekend temperatures reflected in 500H GFS 5-day standardized
anomolies, which has a large negative anomoly centered over the
Great Lakes at 00z/Saturday.  This large negative anomoly only
shifts slowly eastward by 00z/Tuesday.  CIPS Analogs from 00z/Sunday
to 00z/Tuesday continues to show a potential for temperatures to
fall to near freezing during that period.  Hence planting of tender
vegetation may be delayed until later that week.   However wet,
rainy weather may return as well.

AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

Showers will persist into the late afternoon and early evening.
Haven't seen any lightning reports thus far. Small hail is possible
in the heavier showers through late afternoon along with
visibilities dropping to the 3-5 mile range. A few showers may
linger overnight into Tuesday, with dry weather expected by Tuesday
afternoon.

Mainly VFR ceilings will transition to MVFR west to east later this
afternoon into the evening. Could see IFR in a few spots as well
overnight into Tue morning. Will see a gradual improvement in
ceilings mid Tuesday morning into the afternoon, with VFR likely to
return by late Tue afternoon or early evening.

MARINE...

Breezy southwest winds will become westerly and remain gusty tonight
into Tuesday. The offshore winds will keep the waves from getting
particularly high. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Davis
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Tuesday Night through Monday...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
318 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-022030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
318 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

Small hail may accompany some of the showers that affect southern
Wisconsin into the early evening. There is also a slight chance
for a thunderstorm into the early evening.

Rivers in southern Wisconsin will continue to rise to or remain
above bankfull stage. A few rivers, including parts of the Fox and
Rock Rivers, will rise to just above minor flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Rivers in southern Wisconsin will continue to rise to or remain
above bankfull stage. A few rivers, including parts of the Fox and
Rock Rivers, will remain just above minor flood stage.

Cold temperatures may result in frost Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. However, your rainfall
reports are appreciated.

LMZ643>646-022030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
318 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

Gusty southwest to west winds are expected to continue tonight. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. A few gale force gusts
are possible tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and
early evening.  Some small hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected Tuesday. The Small
Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Tuesday afternoon.

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday
night and Friday as low pressure passes by to the south.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK