Dense Fog Advisory 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Dense fog will be an issue early this morning behind the cold
front as skies briefly clear and dew points initially remain
high. Drier air will then work its way in, with clouds scattering
out and the visibilities improving from the north later this
morning. Will issue a Dense fog advisory, but this may need to be
trimmed as the dry air moves in.

An upper level shortwave will move across the lake Superior area
tonight, Most of the showers from this will be to our north, but a
a few showers could brush the Dells to Fond du lac area, as
forecast sounding do show a shallow layer of moisture below an
inversion around 700 mb this evening.

Surface high pressure will then build across Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, with increasing northeast winds across
southeast Wisconsin, especially near Lake Michigan.

.LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will control the weather pattern for Friday and the
weekend. Expect plenty of sunshine to go along with near normal
temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

High pressure will hang on into early next week. Models have
backed off the wave that was expected on Monday, with a stronger
surface high keeping the area dry. Precipitable water values do
increase by Wednesday ahead of a stronger approaching wave. Could
see some shower/storm activity mid-week, but kept precip chances
on the low end due to model differences that far out in the
forecast.

Temps for the first half of next week should remain right around
normal values as we transition from July to August.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

IFR/LIFR ceilings and VSBYS are expected to continue to develop
early this morning.

Still a small chance of showers early this morning with the cold
front exiting the far southeast.

MVFR/VFR conditions should return by middle to late morning, as
northeast winds increase and bring drier air into the area. Gusty
northeast winds are expected near Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon
and evening, with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Ceilings should gradually mix out by later in the day and into
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds and building waves are expected late this
morning and afternoon into tonight. Frequent gusts to 25 knots
are forecast, along with waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Winds and
waves will remain elevated Friday morning, then increase again
Friday afternoon into Friday night. A rather long duration Small
Craft Advisory will go into effect later this morning and
afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...

Gusty northeast winds and building waves are expected along the
beaches of Lake Michigan this afternoon and night. This should
bring high swim risk conditions during this time. A Beach Hazards
Statement will be issued for this afternoon into Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>065-067-068.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     Friday evening for WIZ066-071-072.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     Friday evening for WIZ052-060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CDT
     Saturday for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     Friday night for LMZ643-644.

&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine/Beaches...Hentz
Friday through Wednesday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1020 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-280330-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1020 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to slowly taper off during
the overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any
slow moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-280330-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1020 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to slowly taper off during
the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Thursday afternoon into Friday.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms Monday through
Wednesday.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BRODHEAD                42.62N 89.37W
07/26/2017  M1.80 INCH       GREEN              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 80 MINS.

&&