Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
424 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall over the area this evening, then
lift back to the north tonight. A cold front will push across
the area Saturday night then dissipate offshore. High pressure
will build over the region Sunday and Monday. Another cold front
will approach from the west the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM Fri...Active weather on tap as cold front stalls
over srn tier this evening then lifts back N. Increasing winds
in low/middle lvls also expected overnight on periphery of the
remnants of Harvey. Had decent amount of sun over the area earlier
yielding pretty good instab. Expect shra and tsra to cont to
increase in cvrg and intensity remainder of the day with high
res models showing rather strong band crossing this evening.
Have pops ramping up to categorical inland to likely cst
tonight. Best svr threat will be thru early to mid evening when
instab is highest. Will have decent shear cont overnight so
despite lowering instab still cant rule out a strong to svr
storm. Locally heavy rain a good bet with precip wtr values aoa
2 inches. Lows will be mainly 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Fri...The front will be north of the region with
all areas in warm sector. Expect decent cvrg of shra and tsra
to cont as upr trf assoc with Harvey remnants finally lifts and
fills to the NW. Will cont likely pops and again with enough
instab could see a cpl strong to svr storms. Highs mainly low to
mid 80s with some upper 80s poss.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...A cold front pushes across the area
Saturday night followed by weak high pressure building in from
the west bringing drying Sunday through Tuesday. Deeper moisture
returns Wednesday into Thursday as a long wave upper trough
digs into the eastern CONUS bringing a nice feed of moisture
from the Gulf. A cold front slowly pushes across the region
Thursday with high pressure building in from the west Friday.

Saturday night...The remnant wave of Harvey lifts north of the
region with a cold front slowly pushing across the area allowing
deeper moisture to gradually slide offshore. Continue likely
PoPs east to chance west early evening then gradually lower
through the overnight. Lows expected in the upper 60s/lower 70s
inland to mid 70s coast.

Sunday through Tuesday...The cold front stalls well offshore
with weak high pressure building east from the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley region and remain parked along the spine of
the Appalachians into early next week. This will lead to some
drying across eastern NC. Could see a lingering shower skirt
Hatteras Island Sunday morning but otherwise expect dry
conditions through Tuesday as precipitable water values may
drop to an inch or less for the first time in awhile. High
temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s inland to lower
80s coast with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to low/mid
70s closer to the coast.

Tuesday night through Friday...A long wave upper trough digs
across the eastern CONUS late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a
deep Gulf moisture feed across the Southeast with PW values
surging back above 2 inches. The attendant cold front pushes
toward the region Wednesday night and is progged to slowly push
across the region Thursday into Thursday night. Models have
backed off with the upper trough developing into an upper low
and now begins to lift the trough north Friday. Precip chances
increase late Tuesday into Wednesday with best chances Wednesday
night and Thursday, then gradually diminish Thursday night as
deeper moisture pushes offshore. High pressure builds into the
region from the west Friday which is looking like a dry day at
this time. Temps look to be near normal Wednesday, then slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1230 PM Fri...Mainly VFR through mid to late aftn with
spotty MVFR cigs...will also see increasing coverage of shra and
storms later today into this evening with sub VFR. Numerous
showers and sct storms will cont tonight into Sat as front
stalls over srn tier this evening then lifts back north tonight.
Overnight will see quite a bit of MVFR and poss IFR at times
with onshore flow behind front and convection. Conditions shld
grad improve Sat in warm sector but bouts of some MVFR likely
in shra/tsra.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Friday...Shower activity tapers off from west to east
Saturday night. Could see some sub-VFR conditions at the
terminals in the evening but generally expect improving
conditions through the overnight. High pressure builds into
the region bringing a drier airmass and expect Pred VFR
conditions Sunday through much of Tuesday, but could see patchy
early-morning radiational fog. Moisture increases late Tuesday
into Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the west
bringing increasing shower chances with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 230 PM Fri...SCA conts far nrn wtrs as NE winds 15 to 25
kts have produced 6 to 7 foot seas. The front producing the NE
winds expected to stall somewhere near srn tier this evening
then lift back N later tonight. Expect pred ENE winds this
evening become SE to S late. Winds speeds will average 10 to 20
kts highest N. On Sat SSW winds 10 to 20 kts expected all wtrs.

Have the 6 foot seas ending nrn wtrs later tonight then 3 to 5
feet rest of period. Over srn/central tier seas of 2 to 4 feet
thru tonight will build to 3 to 5 feet Sat.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Friday... A cold front will push across the waters
late Saturday night into early Sunday with S winds around 10-20
kt becoming WSW around 10-15 kt. Weak high pressure builds in
from the west Sunday through Monday with light winds generally
less than 10 kt expected. S/SW winds begin to increase to around
10-15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday with the offshore Bermuda high
becoming dominant and a cold front slowly approaching from the
west. Seas around 3-5 ft Saturday night subside to 2-4 ft Sunday
and around 2-3 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas begin to build late
Tuesday through Wednesday as the initial long period swell from
Hurricane Irma begin to impact the water and seas expected
around 3-5 ft by Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-020730-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Craven-Pamlico-Carteret-Onslow-
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A stationary front across Eastern North Carolina today will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Some of these storms
will be strong to possibly severe this afternoon and evening, with
gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ103-020730-
Outer Banks Dare-
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

In addition...A stationary front across Eastern North Carolina today
will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Some of
these storms will be strong to possibly severe this afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours, and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ104-020730-
Outer Banks Hyde-
319 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

In addition...A stationary front across Eastern North Carolina today
will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Some of
these storms will be strong to possibly severe this afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours, and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ044-079-091-020045-
Greene-Lenoir-Pitt-
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LENOIR...
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN PITT COUNTIES...

At 800 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Wilson to 7 miles east of Fremont to
near Walnut Creek. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Kinston, Farmville, La Grange, Snow Hill, Bell Arthur,
Bruce, Dawson, Maury, Ormondsville, Institute, Jason, Roundtree,
Lizzie, Kinston Regional Jetport, Fountain, Hookerton, Castoria,
Shine and Fort Run VFD.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3538 7780 3540 7780 3543 7783
      3557 7782 3576 7752 3580 7747 3581 7742
      3583 7740 3567 7738 3527 7756 3525 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 247DEG 20KT 3574 7784 3553 7784 3528 7796

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ093>095-020100-
Craven-Pamlico-Carteret-
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN...CENTRAL
CARTERET AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO COUNTIES...

At 812 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Wildwood, or
over Newport, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morehead City, Newport, North River, Merrimon, Harlowe, Wildwood,
Great Neck, Janeiro, Open Grounds Farm, North Harlowe, Cherry Branch
Ferry Terminal, Mitchell Village and Crab Point Village.

Weak rotation has been noted with this storm. While not immediately
likely, a tornado could form at any time.

LAT...LON 3471 7678 3477 7689 3500 7678 3489 7646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 236DEG 11KT 3478 7681

SGK

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