Small Craft Advisory 87, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
353 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnant low pressure will lift northeast into the Mid-Atlantic
states through late week. Weak high pressure will build over
the area this weekend, and then the pressure gradient increases
as Tropical Cyclone Jose passes off the coast early next week.
High pressure is forecast to build over the area mid to late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 am Fri...Latest sfc analysis is showing high pressure
centered over the OH/TN Valley as the mid/upper level trof lifts
northeast. As a result showers over the Pamlico Sound will
continue to lift northeast during the morning hours. Expecting
most of the rain to be out of the area by daybreak.

High pressure will gradually build eastward today as mid-upper
level ridging increases. Models are showing isolated showers for
this afternoon due to minor forcing aloft, but think it will be
mostly dry with an isolated shower or two. Expect highs around
mid 80s inland and low 80s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu... If any showers develop this afternoon,
expect them to diminish with the lack of daytime heating. High
pressure will continue to build over the forecast area with
winds becoming calm and partly cloudy skies. Expect overnight
lows in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM Friday...Main concern is track of Tropical Cyclone
Jose which is forecast to pass off of the coast Monday into
Tuesday and could produce some wind impacts along the coast
along with dangerous surf and rip currents. High pressure is
then forecast to build over the area mid to late next week.

The models continue to indicate increasing chances for rain
Sunday as moisture ahead of Jose pushes inland over NC. Will
continue slight chance PoPs Sat increasing to 30-50% Sunday,
highest coast.

The latest GFS/ECMWF models continue to track Jose north off of
the coast Monday into Tuesday with the system close enough to
produce gusty coastal winds, rain and high seas. Please see the
NHC forecasts for the latest on Jose. Will continue chance PoPs
through Tuesday highest coast. The rip current threat is
expected to be enhanced this whole period, with swells from
Jose impacting area beaches.

A drying trend is expected to develop mid to late next week as
high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 105 am Fri...Currently VFR conditions while most of the
scattered showers are to the east of all the TAF sites early
this morning. Forecast soundings and guidance continues to
indicate the potential for IFR conditions, even brief LIFR as
patchy fog and stratus develops early morning due to low level
moisture and calm winds. Expect conditions to improve back to
VFR after 14z.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Friday...Mainly VFR through Saturday then
increasing chances for showers Sunday into Tuesday will lead to
brief periods of sub VFR conditions in precipitation. Early
morning sub VFR conditions could develop in places where fog
develops due to rain the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 3 am Fri...The latest buoy obs are showing mostly S to SW
winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 ft. S to SW winds 5-10 kt will
continue today with seas 2-4 ft with the highest over the
central to southern waters. Swell energy from Tropical Cyclone
Jose will reach our coastal waters today with seas build late
tonight. Small Craft Advisory will be issued for the central and
southern coastal waters starting after midnight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Friday... Dangerous boating conditions are
expected this weekend into early next week due to impacts from
Tropical Cyclone Jose. Swells from Jose should impact our
coastal waters by early Saturday as waves build to 6 feet, then
6 to 12 feet over the weekend into early next week as the system
passes east of the waters. Northeast winds of 10 to 15 kts are
expected Saturday and Sunday increasing to at least 20 to 30 kt
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME/BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM

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