Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
354 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Large pressure gradient between departing Nor'Easter now over
New England and high pressure over the Midwest will cause windy
but mostly dry conditions through Wednesday. Much below average
temperatures expected before high pressure moves in from the
southwest on Friday. A cold front will move through Saturday.
High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...Rain showers have now lifted out of the
region. Still think some showers will develop later this evening
across coastal sections. Temperatures have warmed into the low
50s in many locations with upper 40s on the OBX. Freeze warning
ongoing for OBX for tonight with low temps below freezing there.
Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with almost
all locations reaching the freezing mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...Upper level trough centers over the
region Wednesday, with much below average temperatures expected.
High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s to low 40s with
blustery WNW winds. Wind chills will be in the teens in the
morning and the warmest it feel Wednesday is the upper 20s to
low 30s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...The main story through Friday will be a
continuation of much below normal temperatures with 850 MB temps
of at least -2SD. This will result in consecutive mornings with
low temperatures well below freezing inland and near or below
freezing immediate coast Thursday and Friday mornings. We
briefly moderate above normal Saturday then return to below
normal readings Sunday and Monday but not as cold as the late
period. The best chance of rain will occur Saturday as cold
front crosses the area.

Wednesday night through Friday...High pressure will prevail
across the region with dry weather through late week. As
mentioned above, very cold temperatures will occur across the
region with lows in the 20s both nights (Thursday night is
expected to be the coldest night of the week) and highs only in
the 40s Thursday. The high will move offshore Friday with
return southerly flow helping to moderate max temps into the
50s Friday.

Saturday...There remains good model agreement with a frontal
passage Saturday producing scattered to numerous showers. Highs
will warm into the 60s.

Sunday through early next week...High pressure will build back
over the area Sunday and Monday with cool but not cold highs in
the 50s Sunday and Monday. Expecting temperatures to warm into
the 60s ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday with a low
chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions have returned across the
region. Winds will be gusty out of the NW 10-15 knots and
gusting to around 25 kts. Winds will weaken somewhat later this
afternoon, but will strengthen again overnight. Clouds will
slowly lift and clear overnight with mostly sunny conditions
expected by Wednesday morning.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...High confidence in VFR through Fri night
as very cold and dry airmass prevails over the region. A cold
front will cross the area Sat with good chance of showers with
some brief sub VFR conditions. Return to VFR Sunday as high
pressure builds back over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...SCA ongoing for all coastal waters and
the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, as well as the Alligator
River. Initiated a SCA for the inland rivers starting at 9 PM
with secondary surge tonight. All SCA will go through Thursday
morning, and persist into Thursday afternoon over the coastal
waters. Also, have a Low Water Advisory for the Pamlico, Neuse,
Bay, and Pungo Rivers starting 11 PM, which will run through
Thursday morning. Winds will be out of the west 20-30 knots
overnight with some gale force gusts possible. Winds remain
strong Wednesday 20-25 knots.

High surf advisory continues for OBX Dare/Hyde counties through
this evening.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...Elevated seas and gusty winds will
prevail over the marine zones for much of the period. The
exception will be from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening
when conditions are forecast to be below advisory levels.
Otherwise, Small Craft conditions will be likely.

NW winds 20 to 25 kt Wednesday night will diminish to 10 to 20
kt Thursday and Thursday night. Seas will subside below 6 ft
Thursday afternoon and to 2 to 4 ft Thursday night. NW winds
around 15 kt early Fri will become SW late. The SW flow will
increase to 15 to 25 kt and seas will build to 4 to 6 ft late
Friday night as a cold front approaches from the west. SW winds
will continue 15 to 25 kt through early Sat evening with seas
peaking at 5 to 9 ft. Winds will shift to NW 15 to 25 kt behind
the front Sat evening and continue through Sunday. Seas will
subside slightly to 4 to 7 ft Sat night and Sunday in the
offshore flow.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ130-131-
     135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
 154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JME/EH
AVIATION...JME/EH/SGK
MARINE...JME/EH/SGK

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