High Surf Advisory 10, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
322 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area tonight through the
middle of next week. A cold front will approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 321 PM Saturday...The cold front was located along the
coast with most of the showers and thunderstorms now offshore.
With several hours of diurnal heating left today there will be a
risk for scattered pop up showers through 00Z this evening
behind the front. After 00Z, a strong positively tilted upper
trough and upper low will begin to pivot south across the
region. This will produce showers especially across the NE zones
where likely PoPs will be forecast. Elsewhere chance/slight
chance PoPs will be forecast. This is a slow moving system so
the rain threat should persist for much of the night especially
along the coast. Much cooler and less humid conditions will
develop over the area tonight with lows dropping into the lower
to middle 60s inland and lower 70s beaches. Gusty northerly
winds will develop this evening and continue overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 321 PM Saturday...High pressure building into the area
will continue to produce a northerly flow of much cooler and
less humid air across eastern NC Sunday. Meanwhile the
aforementioned upper low will be moving through the area helping
to keep a very low chance for a few coastal showers especially
in the morning. Mostly cloudy skies should begin to clear from
west to east in the afternoon. High temperatures will be below
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s accompanied by a stiff
northerly breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 pm Sat...The stationary front will remain offshore.
High pressure builds in from the northwest through the middle of
next week. A cold front will approach next weekend.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Confidence has increased in
evolution of synoptic features through mid week. Model suite in
agreement now with deepening sfc low development off the
mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night, with trailing surface cold
front pushing well offshore through the beginning of next week.
This will bring rapidly drying conditions Sunday night and much
drier and more pleasant air mass into the region. Temps will
actually fall below climo, a nice change from the very warm and
muggy conditions seen most of July. Highs Sunday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Sun night drop down to the upper
50s/near 60 interior to near 70 on the beaches. Warming trend
commences Monday through midweek, though with continued NE winds
and TD's in the 60-65 degree range cooler than normal
overnights will continue with lows generally 60-65 inland with
upper 60s/near 70 coast. Highs warm back to near normal with
readings in the 85-90 degree range.

Thursday through Saturday...A robust shortwave digs across the
Midwest Thursday with increasing southern stream flow across the
southeast which may produce a few showers across the area late
Thursday. Some differences in global models arise by late week,
with the ECMWF/CMC indicating a sharper trough and therefore
deeper moisture arriving by Thur night into Fri, while the GFS
is slower and less amplified with the trough. Will hedge with
the consensus ECM/CMC and introduce 30-40 PoPs late Thur into
Fri. The cold front arrives next weekend, driven by rather sharp
upper trof. Will keep PoPs capped at 50% for now. With the
increasing SW flow comes a return to warm and humid conditions.
Lows rise back into the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs near
90, which is near climo for early August.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Sunday/...
As of 321 PM Saturday...Difficult forecast as conditions will
likely be variable at the TAF sites into Sunday morning. With
the cold front pushing off of the coast this afternoon, the
widespread showers and thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore.
A few pop up showers will develop in the wake of the front with
heating for the remainder of the daylight hours. Then after
00Z, an upper low will begin to move into the area and produce
showers which should occur mainly NE of the TAF sites. There is
a strong enough signal in the guidance though to support periods
of MVFR ceilings for most of tonight, then drier air should
finally prevail by mid Sunday morning with prevailing VFR
conditions. Northerly winds will gust at times to 20 kt through
Sunday.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 3 pm Sat...SKC VFR expected as dry and cooler high pres
builds into E NC. Dewpoints will be quite low so no fog expected
through the period. Surface winds will be NE 10-15 knots Mon, E
5 knots Tue and Wed, SE 5 knots Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Sunday/...
As of 321 PM Saturday...Small Craft Advisories have been posted
for all of the near shore waters and Sounds. Rough boating
conditions will occur through at least Sunday as northerly flow
of 20 to 25 kt with higher gusts develops behind the cold front
tonight and continues on Sunday. This will produce dangerous
building seas of 4 to 8 ft tonight and 5 to 9 ft Sunday.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 3 pm Sat...Low pressure will deepen off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday night then move northeast beginning Monday with
surface/upper ridging building into the region from the
northwest. The gusty NE winds will diminish through Monday with
seas following suit and subsiding. For Tue-Thu, winds will
average 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ103.
. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND FORT MACON              34.70N  76.71W
07/29/2017  M46 MPH          CARTERET           NC   WEATHER FLOW

0659 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND BEAUFORT                34.72N  76.65W
07/29/2017  M43 MPH          CARTERET           NC   ASOS

0700 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE LOOKOUT            34.61N  76.55W
07/29/2017  M39 MPH          CARTERET           NC   C-MAN STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1700216
EVENT NUMBER MHX1700217
EVENT NUMBER MHX1700218

JBM