Winter Storm Warning 15, NWS Medford, OR

105 
WWUS46 KMFR 042041
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
141 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017


ORZ029-030-051200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Altamont, Klamath Falls, Chemult, 
Crescent, and Gilchrist
141 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow above 3500 feet expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the advisory area with 6
  to 12 inches in the warning area

* WHERE...Locations in the warning area include US highway 97
  between Chiloquin and Crescent, including Chemult. Locations in
  the advisory area include highway 31 in Klamath County. Highway
  140, Highway 97 and Highway 39 between Klamath Falls and
  Merrill.

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall
  rates will occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous, especially in the
  warning area. Travel will be difficult in the advisory area. 
  Look for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-051200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Howard Prairie
141 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow above 3500 feet expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in the warning area with 4
  to 10 inches in the advisory area.

* WHERE...Locations in the warning include the southern Oregon
  Cascades including highway 140. Locations in the advisory
  include highway 66, Howard Prairie and Mount Ashland Ski Area. 

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall
  rates will occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous in the warning
  area. Look for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ025>027-051200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
and Union Creek
141 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE 3500 FEET FROM 11
PM PDT THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 3500 feet is expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, except for 4 to 8 inches in
  Jackson County.

* WHERE...Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Highway 58 near the
  Willamette Pass, Highway 138 starting at the Douglas County
  foothills, highway 62, and highway 230. This includes Union
  Creek. Cascade foothills above 3500 feet. This includes a
  portion of highway 227 between Tiller and Trail. Additionally,
  Highway 140 east of milepost 19 will see moderate snow.

* WHEN...11 PM to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall rates will 
  occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to dangerous.
  Look for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is likely
  and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective action
  now.

&&

$$

CAZ080>084-051200-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T1200Z-171106T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-
Including the city of Dorris
141 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST
TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 13 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Siskiyou mountains, including a portion of
  Interstate 5 near Siskiyou Summit. Sawyers Bar Road including
  the town of Sawyers Bar. Highway 97 and the Mt. Shasta Ski 
  park.
 
* WHEN...4 AM to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall rates will
  occur between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Look 
  for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Petrucelli

410 
WWUS46 KMFR 050352
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
852 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

ORZ029-030-051800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Altamont, Klamath Falls, Chemult, 
Crescent, and Gilchrist
852 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow is expected above 3500 feet. Storm
  total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected in the 
  advisory area with 6 to 12 inches in the warning area.

* WHERE...Locations in the warning area include US highway 97
  between Chiloquin and Crescent, including Chemult. Locations in
  the advisory area include highway 31 in Klamath County. Highway
  140, Highway 97 and Highway 39 between Klamath Falls and
  Merrill. A detailed graphic of the hazard area can be viewed at
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall
  rates will occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared, especially in the warning area. Travel
  will be difficult for those inadequately prepared in the
  advisory area. Visibility will be significantly reduced at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  expected and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

&&

$$

ORZ028-051800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Howard Prairie
852 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow above 3500 feet expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in the warning area with 4
  to 10 inches in the advisory area.

* WHERE...Locations in the warning include the southern Oregon
  Cascades including highway 140. Locations in the advisory
  include highway 66, Howard Prairie and Mount Ashland Ski Area. A
  detailed graphic of the hazard area can be viewed at
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall
  rates will occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared, especially in the warning area. Travel
  will be difficult for those inadequately prepared in the
  advisory area. Visibility will be significantly reduced at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is
  likely and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective
  action now.

&&

$$

ORZ025>027-051800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.171105T0600Z-171106T0000Z/
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
and Union Creek
852 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 3500 feet is expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, except for 4 to 8 inches in
  Jackson County.

* WHERE...Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Highway 58 near the
  Willamette Pass, Highway 138 starting at the Douglas County
  foothills, highway 62, and highway 230. This includes Union
  Creek. Cascade foothills above 3500 feet. This includes a
  portion of highway 227 between Tiller and Trail. Additionally,
  Highway 140 east of milepost 19 will see moderate snow. A
  detailed graphic of the hazard area can be viewed at
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

* WHEN...11 PM to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall rates will 
  occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared. Visibility will be significantly reduced
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is likely
  and poses a threat to life and property. Take protective action
  now.

&&

$$

CAZ080>084-051800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T1200Z-171106T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-
Including the city of Dorris
852 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM
PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches.

* WHERE...The Siskiyou mountains, including a portion of
  Interstate 5 near Siskiyou Summit. Sawyers Bar Road including
  the town of Sawyers Bar. Highway 97 and the Mt. Shasta Ski Park.
  A detailed graphic of the hazard area can be viewed at
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr 
 
* WHEN...4 AM to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall rates will
  occur between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult for those
  inadequately prepared. Visibility will be significantly reduced
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://www.tripcheck.com for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

BTL

107 
WWUS46 KMFR 050859
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
159 AM PDT Sun Nov 5 2017

ORZ029-030-060000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Altamont, Klamath Falls, Chemult, 
Crescent, and Gilchrist
159 AM PDT Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow snow above 3500 feet expected.
  Storm total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected in
  the advisory area with 6 to 12 inches in the warning area.

* WHERE...Locations in the warning area include US highway 97
  between Chiloquin and Crescent, including Chemult. Locations in
  the advisory area include highway 31 in Klamath County. Highway
  140, Highway 97, and Highway 39 between Klamath Falls and
  Merrill. 

* WHEN...Through 4 PM today. The heaviest snowfall rates will
  occur between 5 AM and 11 AM this morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared, especially in the warning area. Travel
  will be difficult in the advisory area. Visibility will be 
  significantly reduced at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  imminent and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

&&

$$

ORZ028-060000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Howard Prairie
159 AM PDT Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow above 3500 feet expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches in the warning area with 
  4 to 10 inches in the advisory area.

* WHERE...Locations in the warning include the southern Oregon
  Cascades and highway 140. Locations in the advisory include
  highway 66, Howard Prairie, and Mount Ashland.

* WHEN...11 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall
  rates will occur between 5 AM and 11 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared, especially in the warning area. Travel
  will be difficult in the advisory area. Visibility will be 
  significantly reduced at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  imminent and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

&&

$$

ORZ025>027-060000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
and Union Creek
159 AM PDT Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 3500 feet is expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, except for 4 to 10 inches in
  Jackson County.

* WHERE...Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Highway 58 near the
  Willamette Pass, Highway 138 starting at the Douglas County
  foothills, highway 62, and highway 230 including Union Creek.
  The warning also includes a portion of highway 227 between
  Tiller and Trail as well as Highway 140 east of milepost 19.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur 
  between 5 AM and 11 AM this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be dangerous for those
  inadequately prepared. Visibility will be significantly reduced
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Travel is strongly discouraged because of dangerous conditions.

* If you must travel, keep tire chains, a flashlight, blankets, 
  food, water, medications, and a fully charged phone with you.

* The safest place during a winter storm is indoors.

* A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather is 
  imminent and poses a threat to life and property. Take 
  protective action now.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

&&

$$

CAZ080>084-060000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.171105T1200Z-171106T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-
Including the city of Dorris
159 AM PDT Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches.

* WHERE...The Siskiyou mountains, including a portion of
  Interstate 5 near Siskiyou Summit; Sawyers Bar Road including
  the town of Sawyers Bar; Highway 97; and Mt. Shasta.

* WHEN...4 AM to 4 PM Sunday. The heaviest snowfall rates will
  occur between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult for those
  inadequately prepared. Visibility will be significantly reduced
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

* Carry tire chains and be prepared for snow covered roads and 
  limited visibilities.

* See https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov for latest road conditions.

* A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
  will cause travel difficulties.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

&&

$$

Schaaf

854 
WWUS46 KMFR 052350
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
350 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2017

ORZ029-030-060100-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Including the cities of Altamont, Klamath Falls, Chemult, 
Crescent, and Gilchrist
350 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS
   AFTERNOON...

The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will expire
at 4 PM PST. While snow showers are still ongoing, the heavier
precipitation has ended. 

&&

$$

ORZ028-060100-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Howard Prairie
350 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS
   AFTERNOON...

The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will expire
at 4 PM PST. While snow showers are still ongoing, the heavier
precipitation has ended. 

&&

$$

ORZ025>027-060100-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Crater Lake, Crescent Lake, Diamond Lake,
and Union Creek
350 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

The Winter Storm Warning will expire at 4 PM PST. While snow 
showers are still ongoing, the heavier precipitation has ended. 

&&

$$

CAZ080>084-060100-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WW.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-171106T0000Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-
Including the city of Dorris
350 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS
   AFTERNOON...

The Winter Weather Advisory will expire at 4 PM PST. While snow 
showers are still ongoing, the heavier precipitation has ended. 

&&

$$

Stockton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
801 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

.UPDATE...Weather cameras around the area this evening suggest
that snow levels may not have dropped as far, or as fast, as
previously thought. This makes some sense, as the front itself has
slowed significantly, but is still making steady progress to the
southeast. Have made some slight adjustments to the snow levels to
bring them up a bit, particularly in northern California, and
adjusted the weather and snow amount grids as well. Overall, this
has not made too much of a change in the forecast, but it has
slowed the changeover form rain to snow a bit. Also of note, the
primary bands of snow have moved away from the area of concern
within the Winter Weather Advisory, so have cancelled that a few
hours early, although some light snow showers continue.

The remainder of the forecast appears to be on track, with the
next system arriving Sunday, followed by a much more potent system
by midweek. Fore more information on these, see the previous
discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z TAF Cycle...The front currently producing
rain, snow, and widespread MVFR across the area will gradually
slide to the southeast, with precipitation ending from northwest
to southeast through tonight. Once the front passes, which has
already occured at KOTH, clearing will follow. With the moisture
in the valleys and clear skies overhead, widespread areas of IFR
fog and low stratus, as well as mountain obscuration, are expected
tonight, mainly in the West Side valleys, including at KRBG and
KMFR. These areas should clear to VFR by late morning or early
afternoon. East of the Cascades, some fog or stratus is possible
as well, but much will depend on the winds and when the front
clears. Those locations that do drop to MVFR or lower should clear
to VFR in the morning and remain so through the rest of the TAF
period. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Friday 03 November 2017...Mariners
should be prepared for unsettled weather through the weekend then
additional stronger storms next week. Steep west swell will
continue through midnight tonight, then should diminish through
the early morning. Another front is expected to pass through the
area Saturday night into early Sunday, producing moderate south
winds and steep wind driven seas. A much stronger front is
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models continue to show
some variability with this system, so our confidence in specific
details is not high. While it is likely we will see a potent
frontal system around mid week, which could produce strong south
winds and very steep seas, the timing and strength are not
certain. Will continue to monitor the potential for this strong
storm over the next several days. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite imagery shows steady
precipitation associated with the cold front positioned southwest
to northeast from Siskiyou County northeast through northern Lake
and Klamath Counties. There is good agreement the front and
steady precipitation will gradually shift southeast during the
afternoon. The colder air aloft is starting to filter into the
northwest part of the forecast area. It's still windy, especially
east of the Cascades and models show 700mb winds remaining
elevated for the rest of the afternoon with the strongest winds
between 50-55 kts in southeast Lake and Modoc County. Surface
observations also show gusty winds and therefore have decided to
extend the end time of the wind advisory until 5 pm pdt.

As previously mentioned, the colder air mass is just starting to
move into the northwest part of the CWA. it's snowing on highway
140 near Lake of the Woods and 230 and 138 near Diamond Lake, but
roads remain wet and this should remain the case for the rest of
the daylight hours due surface heating on the roads. Some
accumulation is expected after dark in these areas, but the steady
precipitation will have shifted south by then with decreasing
showers behind it. This should limit the amount of accumulating
snow. Currently the winter weather advisory for the Cascades ends
at 5pm pdt and 11 pm pdt for portions of Klamath and Lake County.
The 5 pm end time looks reasonable, however the end time for the
eastside may need to be adjusted to end earlier depending on how
soon the steady precipitation shifts south.

Most of the showers this evening will be confined to eastern
Siskiyou, all of Modoc and southeast Lake and Klamath Counties.
However off/on showers are still expected to linger elsewhere
until the trough axis moves through tonight. So the northwest part
of the forecast area will be the first to see a break from
showers and the southeast last. We could see off/on showers
lasting into early this evening with most hours dry late this
evening and overnight tonight.

A break in the weather is expected Saturday into Saturday evening
with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will be cool to cold
Saturday morning, depending on the amount of clearing. In fact
some areas in the Rogue valley could see near or just below
freezing temperatures early Saturday morning. Temperatures
Saturday afternoon could end up milder if we get enough sunbreaks.

Our next attention will be Saturday night through Sunday. Another
upper trough will be digging south with precipitation arriving in
the northwest part of the area Saturday evening, then spreading
southeast during the overnight hours. This system could be
problematic for the following reasons. First, a cold airmass will
already be in place with colder temperatures at the surface and
aloft. Second, moderate to heavy precipitation is possible over
and along the west facing slopes of the Cascades overnight
Saturday through Sunday. Third, precipitation rates could be
further enhanced by a strong orographic flow with a moderate to
strong 700mb flow from the west. Fourth a strong upper jet moving
over the area with the right entrance region of the jet expected
to be over the Cascades Sunday afternoon.

The above mentioned reasons could result in moderate to heavy
snow for the Cascades late from late Saturday evening through at
least Sunday morning. We could see accumulating snow down as low
as 3000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning, but with much
less amounts. Right now our estimated storm total from this event
(11 pm pdt Saturday until 10 pm pst Sunday) could top out near or
over 20 inches near Crater Lake and highways 138 and 230 near
Diamond Lake, 10-15 inches on highway 140 near Lake of the Woods
and around a foot on highway 50 near Willamette Pass. Storm total
in I-5 near Siksyou Summit should be less (3-5 inches) but will be
higher near Mount Ashland Ski area (6-10 inches). Keep in mind
these amounts could change, so watch for updates on this.
Currently we have a winter storm watch out covering this. Details
can be found at WSWMFR.

Precipitation should be winding down Sunday night as the upper
trough swings through, but showers could be more persistent along
the Cascades and northwest facing slopes of the Cascades and
Siskiyous. Another break in the weather is expected Monday. A few
showers could linger in the morning, then there's a better chance
for dry conditions as weak upper ridging builds in. -Petrucelli

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...Tuesday 07 Nov through Friday 10 Nov 2017.
The extended period will begin with a long wave ridge over the
Pacific Northwest, but this won't last long. The upstream trough
will move in Wednesday, but the medium range models differ in the
handling of this feature. The 03/12Z GFS goes with a deeper trough
than the 03/12Z EC, although they both have the trough axis out
at 135W at 09/00Z Thu. A digging trough would suggest a less
progressive pattern, so the GFS is the slower solution here.

Initially the forecast area will be dry. This will change, but
given the upper air differences, it is no surprise that there are
timing differences with the surface front. The EC moves the front
onshore Wednesday morning, while the GFS moves it onshore late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Given the current forecast,
will go with the faster EC solution, but will slow it down just a
bit.

By 10/00Z Fri, the models were very similar with the location of
the trough along 130W, but the new 03/12Z EC run now goes with a
weaker and more progressive solution, moving the upper low near
the northern Oregon coast. The GFS was 500m deeper with the
strength of the low as compared to the 03/00Z EC run, now it is
about 1200m deeper.

At the surface, both models show a generally showery scenario
with the heaviest precipitation extending from the Mount Shasta
area northwest into the Kalmiopsis.

The trends in the medium range solutions continue into Friday.
Both models move the long wave trough onshore 10/12Z late Thursday
night, but the EC is much weaker than the GFS. In the wake of the
trough, the EC builds a ridge into the Pacific Northwest while
the GFS goes with quasizonal flow.

Both models move yet another front onshore Thursday night, and
given the upper level pattern, it comes as no surprise that the
GFS solution depicts a significantly wetter and windier system.

A compromise solution is likely the best with the Friday front.
Will blend the EC and GFS wind solutions for that system. Both
models support post-frontal shower activity into Saturday. JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for ORZ027-028-030.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon above 3000 feet in the for ORZ025.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
     until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376.

BPN/MAP/JRS