Wind Advisory 32, NWS Medford, OR

368 
WWUS76 KMFR 181217
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
517 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-190030-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.A.0015.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
517 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations in the advisory include...Lakeview, Alturas, Canby, 
  Fort Rock, Silver Lake, Sprague River, Beatty, Bly and Adel. 

* Locations in the watch include...Areas along Highway 31 from 
  Paisley to Summer Lake, along Highway 395 near Alkali Lake and 
  in the Warner Mountains. 

* Impacts...Driving conditions will be dangerous, especially for 
  high-profile vehicles. Stronger winds could down trees and 
  power lines and cause flying debris. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$

CAZ081-190030-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1500Z-171020T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Yreka and Weed
517 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

* Winds...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Shasta Valley along Interstate 5, 
  including Weed. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-190030-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
517 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Tulelake, Altamont, Klamath Falls and 
  Bonanza. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

218 
WWUS76 KMFR 182320
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
420 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-191400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0015.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0014.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
420 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the High Wind
Watch to a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 
11 PM PDT Thursday. 

* Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations in the advisory include...Lakeview, Alturas, Canby, 
  Fort Rock, Silver Lake, Sprague River, Beatty, Bly and Adel. 

* Locations in the warning include...Areas along Highway 31 from 
  Paisley to Summer Lake, along Highway 395 near Alkali Lake and 
  in the Warner Mountains. 

* Impacts...Driving conditions will be dangerous, especially for 
  high-profile vehicles. Stronger winds could down trees and 
  power lines and cause flying debris. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ081-191400-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1500Z-171020T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Yreka and Weed
420 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

* Winds...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Shasta Valley along Interstate 5, 
  including Weed. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-191400-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
420 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Tulelake, Altamont, Klamath Falls and 
  Bonanza. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

MAS

529 
WWUS76 KMFR 191042
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
342 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-200000-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0014.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
342 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations in the advisory include...Lakeview, Alturas, Canby, 
  Fort Rock, Silver Lake, Sprague River, Beatty, Bly and Adel. 

* Locations in the warning include...Areas along Highway 31 from 
  Paisley to Summer Lake, along Highway 395 near Alkali Lake and 
  in the Warner Mountains. 

* Impacts...Driving conditions will be dangerous, especially for 
  high-profile vehicles. Stronger winds could down trees and 
  power lines and cause flying debris. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ081-200000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1500Z-171020T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Yreka and Weed
342 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Shasta Valley along Interstate 5, 
  including Weed. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-200000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.171019T1800Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
342 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Tulelake, Altamont, Klamath Falls and 
  Bonanza. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

358 
WWUS76 KMFR 192004
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
104 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017


CAZ085-ORZ030-031-200600-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
104 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 
  mph.

* Timing...Winds will peak this afternoon and evening, then
  subside tonight. 

* Locations in the advisory include...Lakeview, Alturas, Canby, 
  Fort Rock, Silver Lake, Sprague River, Beatty, Bly and Adel. 

* Locations in the warning include...Areas along Highway 31 from 
  Paisley to Summer Lake, along Highway 395 near Alkali Lake and 
  in the Warner Mountains. 

* Impacts...Driving conditions will be dangerous, especially for 
  high-profile vehicles. Stronger winds could down trees and 
  power lines and cause flying debris. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ081-200300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Yreka and Weed
104 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Shasta Valley along Interstate 5, 
  including Weed. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-200600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
104 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Tulelake, Altamont, Klamath Falls and 
  Bonanza. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

594 
WWUS76 KMFR 200232
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
732 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

CAZ081-200345-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the cities of Yreka and Weed
732 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

Strong south to southeast winds in the Shasta Valley earlier this
evening are subsiding. Winds will become southwest and ease late
this evening and overnight. Therefore, the wind advisory will be
allowed to expire.

$$

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-200600-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
732 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 
  mph. 

* Timing...Winds will peak this afternoon and evening, then 
  subside tonight. 

* Locations in the advisory include...Lakeview, Alturas, Canby, 
  Fort Rock, Silver Lake, Sprague River, Beatty, Bly and Adel. 

* Locations in the warning include...Areas along Highway 31 from 
  Paisley to Summer Lake, along Highway 395 near Alkali Lake and 
  in the Warner Mountains. 

* Impacts...Driving conditions will be dangerous, especially for 
  high-profile vehicles. Stronger winds could down trees and 
  power lines and cause flying debris. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-200600-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
732 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Winds increase Thursday morning, peak Thursday 
  afternoon and evening, then subside Thursday night. 

* Locations include...Tulelake, Altamont, Klamath Falls and 
  Bonanza. 

* Impacts...Travel will be difficult for lightweight and high 
  profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects or materials will be 
  blown about. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

MAS

170 
WWUS76 KMFR 200540
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1040 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-200645-
/O.EXP.KMFR.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, 
Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls
1040 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

Strong south to southwest winds earlier this evening are 
subsiding. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to 
expire. 

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029-200645-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Including the cities of Tulelake, Altamont, and Klamath Falls
1040 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

Strong south to southwest winds earlier this evening are 
subsiding. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to 
expire. 

$$

MAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
820 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Made a few changes to the short term forecast again by adding fog
along the coast in addition to areas of drizzle. Have noticed in
the past when the NAM puts spotty QPF along the coast, Brookings
and North Bend seem to see drizzle in the dense fog. Aside from
that, modified the low temperatures in populated areas tonight to
the lows in the NAM MOS guidance bulletins, which seem to be
quite accurate in this pattern. For more information on the
upcoming storm systems, read the discussion below. Also note
the Hydrology section in this AFD. -Smith

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION...18/00Z TAF CYCLE...Expect MVFR to return to the Coos
County coast this evening with IFR at OTH again around 0500.
Expecting overcast skies to develop over the Umpqua valley tonight
with the possibility of fog over RBG.  Left fog out for now as fog
barely formed last night.  -Smith

&&

.MARINE...

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 17 October 2017...Relatively
mild conditions will continue tonight into early Wednesday as high
pressure remains over the area. Things are on track for the next
front to bring stronger South winds to the marine waters Wednesday
afternoon. Confidence is approaching moderate for south winds to
reach gale Wednesday night and Thursday from Reedsport south to
around Port Orford. Winds are expected to decrease below gale
Thursday afternoon and turn more westerly behind the cold front.

Long period and large northwest swells (around 20 feet at 17
seconds) build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the
front, creating dangerous surf and bar conditions. The front is
expected to move back as a warm front, and winds are expected to
increase again Friday night and Saturday with guidance showing Gale
Force Winds again. /FB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 17 October 2017...
There will be some hydrologic concerns with the Wednesday night
into Friday system. Currently, soils are dry and rivers are low,
but there will be enough rain to create possible debris flows near
recent burn scars. The river levels will not be an issue itself,
but the debris may obstruct river flows at times, creating
elevated river levels upstream of the block at first, then
downstream of the block if and when it breaks free. If you come
across a flooded road, find an alternate route. Remember to turn
around, don't drown.

Debris floating down the river combined with high surf may create
dangerous bar conditions near the Port of Brookings. -Stockton

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...17/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

The northern hemispheric map is a bit amorphous this afternoon...
just a blob of cool air centered at the pole with a hard-to-
discern wave number...four maybe? However, this will change later
this week as the pattern transitions to a progressive wave
pattern. This will correspond with a transition to an active
weather pattern for the Pacific Northwest.

For now, flat ridging is in place over the west coast. A short
wave embedded in the flow has moved onshore but it hasn't amounted
to much. No precipitation has been reported at this time. The main
frontal band remains offshore but it doesn't look impressive
either. There are some gusty winds over the ridges and east side
though with peak gusts around 25 mph.

The ridge, what there is of it, will break to the east of the CWA
Wednesday and southwest flow aloft will increase over the area as
a long wave trough deepens offshore. This will open the storm
door, and short waves ejecting from the offshore trough will
barrel through it.

The first few waves will be weak and the impacts will be similar
to the system moving onshore today. However, a much stronger one
will move onshore Thursday into Thursday night, and this will
support a wet and windy front which will move onshore just ahead
of the trough Thursday.

The mid shift summarized the impacts of this system well and they
are listed below:

*Impacts: Ponding on roadways, debris flows near burn scars near
 the coast and western Siskiyou County.
*Slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher passes in the
 Cascades near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake. Light snow on highway
 140 near Lake of the Woods.
*Travel may become difficult for high profile vehicles due to
 strong southerly winds along the coastal headlands, Shasta
 Valley, and east of the Cascades.
*Isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.

Snow levels will start off above 8000 feet on Thursday and will
drop to 4000 to 4500 feet by Friday evening as the precipitation
comes to an end. Some of the higher passes could see some moderate
snow, particularly near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake; but lower
passes like highway 140 near Lake of the Woods will only see light
snow. Siskiyou Summit may see a few flurries on Friday, but it is
more likely that the precipitation will end before it changes
over to snow.

Precipitation totals will be significant, especially at the
coast. Rain rates will be less than a quarter of an inch an hour,
but some coastal areas could see 1.5 inches in 6 hours and some
inland areas will get 1 inch in 6 hours. Rivers are still low and
soils are dry from the summer, but a few impacts could still be
felt, particularly for coastal rivers.

This will be one of the first wind events in our forecast area
for the season. The strongest winds will occur at the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday with Shasta Valley and East Side
winds ramping up Thursday into Friday morning. This could create
some travel difficulties, especially for high profile vehicles.
There may be some treefalls due to the winds, particularly near
recent burn scars.

The long wave upper trough will move onshore Friday, and short
waves will continue to move through the trough. This will support
widespread shower activity into Friday. The offshore upper level
ridge will amplify as it approaches the coast, and this will cause
the front to lift back north as a strong and quite wet warm front
Saturday, followed by a weaker trailing cold front Saturday night
into Sunday.

The offshore ridge will be quite strong by this time just off the
coast. Low level flow will turn easterly Sunday night into Monday,
so the area will dry out quickly at that time. Easterly flow will
weaken Monday into Tuesday, but it will remain dry with no
incoming systems initially. A weak front may bring some
precipitation to the north coast and Umpqua Basin Wednesday.

-Stockton

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ350-370.

CZS/JRS/FJB