Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
233 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...The forecast focus is on the probability of
precipitation (pop) Thursday and Friday, and then the warmth
early next week.

The models are in good agreement on the pattern for the next
7 days. Both the NAM and GFS models show record-breaking
precipitable water (atmospheric moisture) Thursday and Friday
over Medford. The current satellite water vapor loop shows a long
fetch of westerly moisture across the Pacific heading in our
direction.

The bulk of this moisture streams into our region as high
pressure aloft builds from the south. We have all this moisture
but there is no real upper disturbance to help wring out this
moisture. Only a weak upper wave is forecast to quickly move
across the area Friday evening but the upper ridge quickly
rebounds behind this weak wave. The best chance for measureable
rainfall is mainly north and west of the Rogue Valley. We believe
around 1/2 inch of rain will fall at the coast and near the
Douglas- Lane county line. East of the Cascades and south of the
Siskiyous there will mainly be just a trace of rain or nothing.

Thunderstorms are not expected with stable conditions. However,
weak instability is indicated on Friday afternoon across Modoc
County but no trigger to help initiate convection.

Breezy conditions can be expected on the Eastside Thursday
afternoon and evening as gusty winds aloft mix to near the
surface.

The attention then turns to heat. High temperatures have been
raised Sunday through Tuesday. Have raise highs to the mid to
upper 90s for the inland western valleys with the hottest
temperatures close to 100 for the lower Klamath River Valley in
western Siskiyou County. Using our new "HeatRisk" tool, it
suggests that we would not need to have heat advisories for early
next week probably because the lows are mainly in the upper 50s to
around 60 in the inland western valleys due to relatively dry
air.
Sandler

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions will continue over the
area through 12Z Thu. After that time MVFR cigs are possible along
the coast as deeper moisture concentrates in that area with rain
likely. -MTS

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Wednesday 14 June 2017...High pressure
will weaken tonight. A front will bring strong south winds and wind
driven seas to the area Thursday. The highest winds and seas will be
north of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon. Another weaker front will
move onshore Friday. Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough
near the coast will return this weekend and persist into next week.
North gales and very steep seas will be possible south of Cape
Blanco during this period.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM Thursday to 11
     AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ356-376.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-370.