Alert archive / Oregon / River Flood Warnings in 2017
River Flood Warning 18, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this river flood warning at Feb 22, 2017, 12:03 AM PST for Coos County, Oregon. It took effect at Feb 22, 2017, 3:10 AM PST. It was in force for 55 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 22, 2017, 12:03 AM PST (08:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 22, 2017, 3:10 AM PST
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2017, 10:25 AM PST
- In force
- 55 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Coos County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Coquille River at Coquille (COQO3).
- Action stage
- 20 ft
- Minor stage
- 21 ft
- Moderate stage
- 23 ft
- Major stage
- 25 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 14327055, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
303 WGUS46 KMFR 220803 FLWMFR Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested Flood Warning National Weather Service Medford, OR 1203 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... .Minor flooding is expected on the Coquille River at Coquille 3 AM PST and 9 PM PST Wednesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-221403- /O.NEW.KMFR.FL.W.0018.170222T1110Z-170223T1623Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1110Z.170222T2000Z.170223T0423Z.NO/ 1203 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a * Flood Warning for the Coquille River at Coquille. * From 3 AM PST thsi morning until 9 PM PST Wednesday evening. * At 11:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is expected to crest at 21.3 feet Wednesday afternoon. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 feet on Mar 15 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
11 follow-up statements
591 WGUS86 KMFR 221203 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 403 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... California... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-221803- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170223T2037Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1302Z.170222T2100Z.170223T0837Z.NO/ 403 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 3:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 20.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning. The river is forecast to crest around 21.5 feet this afternoon and evening, then remain above flood stage through at least tonight. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 feet on Mar 15 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ CAC049-221803- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170223T1300Z/ /CNBC1.1.ER.170222T0015Z.170222T1045Z.170223T0100Z.UU/ 403 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 2:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to crest early this morning near 9.0 feet. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage through this evening. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County 4300 cfs && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$
872 WGUS86 KMFR 221212 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 412 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... California... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && CAC049-221812- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170223T1548Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170222T1500Z.170223T0348Z.UU/ 412 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 3:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.0 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to crest early this morning near 9.2 feet. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage through this evening. Peak flow is expected to be near 4300 CFS. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County 4300 cfs && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$ ORC011-221812- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170223T2037Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1302Z.170222T2100Z.170223T0837Z.NO/ 412 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 3:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 20.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning. The river is forecast to crest around 21.5 feet this afternoon and evening, then remain above flood stage through at least tonight. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 feet on Mar 15 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
423 WGUS86 KMFR 221654 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 854 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon and California... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && CAC049-222254- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T0300Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170222T1545Z.170223T1500Z.UU/ 854 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 7:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will crest this morning and begin to fall. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County. && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$ ORC011-222254- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170223T1403Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170222T1630Z.170223T0203Z.NO/ 854 AM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 8:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will crest this morning and fall below Flood Stage by tonight. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.7 feet on Mar 15 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
695 WGUS86 KMFR 222242 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 242 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... and California... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && CAC049-230442- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T0400Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170222T2145Z.170223T1600Z.UU/ 242 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 1:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.2 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by tomorrow morning. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County 4300 cfs && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$ ORC011-230442- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T1317Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0200Z.170224T0117Z.NO/ 242 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 11:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.7 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
914 WGUS86 KMFR 230445 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 845 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && CAC049-231045- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T1200Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170223T0145Z.170224T0000Z.UU/ 845 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.2 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by Thursday afternoon. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County 4300 cfs && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$ ORC011-231045- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T1317Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0500Z.170224T0117Z.NO/ 845 PM PST WED FEB 22 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 11:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.7 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will begin to fall this evening and is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday afternoon. * Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain along the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
175 WGUS86 KMFR 231035 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 235 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... .The Pit River has receded from moderate flooding to monior flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && CAC049-231635- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T1200Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170223T0145Z.170224T0000Z.UU/ 235 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 1:45 AM Thursday the stage was 9.0 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * The river is receding and minor flooding is forecast. * The river is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 PM PST this afternoon. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County. && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$ ORC011-231635- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170225T0013Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T1213Z.NO/ 235 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 1:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.5 feet, which is expected to be the peak stage reading for this flood event. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to fall to below flood stage during Friday morning. * Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$
098 WGUS86 KMFR 231626 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 826 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-232226- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T2020Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T0820Z.NO/ 826 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 7:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.2 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by early Friday morning. * Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ CAC049-232226- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T1200Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170223T0145Z.170224T0000Z.UU/ 826 AM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Pit River near Canby. * At 7:45 AM Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon. * Impact...At 9.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding in Canby and Lookout in Modoc County and Beiber and Nubeiber in Lassen County 4300 cfs && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$
693 WGUS86 KMFR 232217 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 217 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 ...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in California... Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... .The Pit River at Canby has come down below flood stage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-240417- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T2020Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T0820Z.NO/ 217 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by after midnight tonight. * Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ CAC049-232247- /O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170224T1200Z/ /CNBC1.2.ER.170222T0015Z.170223T0145Z.170223T2052Z.UU/ 217 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning is canceled for the Pit River near Canby. * At 1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 8.5 feet. * Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. * Fell below Flood Stage at 12:52 PM Thursday. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.9 feet by early tomorrow. && LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121 $$
227 WGUS86 KMFR 240414 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 814 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-241014- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T2020Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T0820Z.NO/ 814 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by late tonight. * Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ Sven
479 WGUS86 KMFR 241010 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 210 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2017 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-241610- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T1916Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T0716Z.NO/ 210 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2017 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet. The stage at 2:00 AM Friday is estimated to be 21.5 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage later this morning. * Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Dec 16 2016. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ Stockton
647 WGUS86 KMFR 241825 FLSMFR Flood Statement National Weather Service Medford, OR 1025 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2017 ...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... .The river has receded and no longer poses an immediate threat. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to NOAA weather radio. && ORC011-241855- /O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170224T2027Z/ /COQO3.1.ER.170222T1405Z.170223T0930Z.170224T0827Z.NO/ 1025 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2017 The Flood Warning is canceled for the Coquille River at Coquille. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ BPN
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 21, 2:19 PM PST, 9 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 2:19 PM PST, 9 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
219 PM PST Tue Feb 21 2017
.SHORT TERM...now through Friday...Showers are plentiful this
afternoon across the west side and into the Cascades in the wake
of low pressure that is now moving off to our north and east.
Deep, moist, onshore flow is fueling the convection, which is
being enhanced orographically. We've seen some 40-50 dbz echoes on
radar, which isn't terribly surprising given the amount of
instability present. We haven't seen any lightning yet, but it
certainly wouldn't be surprising to see a few strikes this
afternoon. Gusty winds continue east of the Cascades, but the
strong upper jet has moved off and speeds have diminished enough
to lower the wind headlines. The exception is in Lake County where
they are closer to the low and winds continue to gust to 50 mph
in a few locations. I continued wind advisories there into the
evening, but ended the high wind warning.
Guidance is consistent in showing showers diminishing this
evening. However, there will be a secondary front that moves in
from the north overnight and into Wednesday morning. There is a
noticeable increase in frontogenesis as the front encounters the
terrain of the Umpqua Divide late tonight, and models are
focusing precipitation in that area. At the same time, snow levels
will be falling, and with 850 mb temperatures of around -4C, snow
will probably fall all the way down to I-5 by late tonight. I've
already issued a winter weather advisory for all the passes
between Grants Pass and Roseburg and much of the higher terrain of
Jackson, Josephine, and Douglas counties. Lower elevation road
temperatures are warm, but Metro forecasts for Canyon Creek Pass
show surfaces dropping to near freezing by tomorrow morning. If
precipitation comes down heavily enough, it should be able to
overcome any surface warmth and accumulate. While I confined snow
accumulations to 1-3 inches along I-5, this will have to be
watched closely, because the 18Z guidance came in with higher
precipitation amounts than earlier guidance. If the front stalls
in the area, which is a distinct possibility, there could be much
more snow. Temperatures will warm tomorrow, and high sun angles
should melt anything that falls by late morning.
Strong cold advection will continue over the entire area tomorrow
and into Thursday. At the same time, an upper low currently
spinning its way down the southeast Alaska coast will move through
here. As the cold air associated with this system moved out over
the Gulf of Alaska, buoy observations showed air temperatures in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, which is an indication of how cold the
airmass is. As this trough moves through our area, the threat for
low elevation snow continues. The airmass will be plenty cold
(850 mb temperatures of -6C to -8C) for snow over almost all of
our forecast area inland from the coast (and maybe even at the
coast) Wednesday evening through Thursday. The question will be:
how much precipitation is left. The trough itself will be very
dynamic and it will certainly produce showers, so I would expect
more impacts along I-5 north of Grants Pass, as well as some snow
in the snow-prone valleys like the Illinois, Evans, and possibly
even in Grants Pass and Roseburg. Precipitation looks much more
spotty around Medford, but this will also bear watching, as any
change in the path of the upper low will change precipitation
amounts.
This cold, unsettled pattern continues all the way through Friday,
so we could easily see snowflakes in the air at times through the
remainder of the week. -Wright
.LONG TERM...Saturday 25 Feb through Tuesday 28 Feb 2017.
The medium range models are in rough agreement at the beginning of
the extended period with a long wave trough oriented from northeast
to southwest across the area. They differ a bit on the location of
the closed low at the base of the trough, but all have it offshore
to the west of the Medford CWA. The cold air aloft will support a
generally unstable air mass with variable winds aloft in the col
region east of the upper level low. Expect slow moving scattered
shower activity Saturday.
The closed low will dive south Saturday night into Sunday...but
short waves will continue to move into the trough...causing it to
dig along the west coast. Cold air aloft will remain in place with
showers continuing.
The trough will move slowly to the east from Sunday night on...and
the flow aloft over the area will become northwesterly as a ridge
edges in from the west. This will stabilize the air mass. A drying
and warming trend will kick in at this juncture...but the showers
will not end completely...at least not through Tuesday. -JRS
&&
.AVIATION...21/18z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions with local MVFR cigs
in showers will persist into this evening with areas of higher
terrain obscured. MVFR cigs/vsbys will increase tonight as showers
persist and gradually change to snow showers over the inland areas.
Freezing levels across the area will drop to 2000 feet elevation
tonight and to 1000 to 2000 feet tomorrow morning. The lower
conditions will persist through mid-morning Wednesday. -JRS
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday 21 February 2017...Gusty west
to northwest winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon,
diminishing through the evening and overnight hours. Seas will
subside to around 9 feet for most of the area with the period
increasing as the evening progresses. This will keep seas just below
small craft advisory level through Wednesday. Moderate to locally
heavy showers will persist through the evening with a chance of
thunderstorms for all of the waters through Wednesday morning. Winds
could be quite gusty with any of these showers and/or thunderstorms.
Increasing northwest winds and seas are expected Wednesday night
into Thursday, with seas building to at least small craft advisory
levels during this time. This active wet weather pattern will
continue through the week. /BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for ORZ023-024-026.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ025-027.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
FEET for for ORZ028.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 21, 9:30 PM PST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 PM PST TUE FEB 21 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.34W
02/21/2017 M1.40 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
.
&&
BTLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 9:08 PM PST | River Flood Watch | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 7 hr |
| Feb 22, 2:19 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas | MFR | 8 hr | |
| Feb 22, 2:19 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas | MFR | 37 hr | |
| Feb 22, 4:45 AM PST | Winter Weather Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 17 hr |
| Feb 22, 3:50 PM PST | Winter Storm Watch | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath | 22 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Oregon, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.