River Flood Warning 14, NWS Medford, OR

201 
WGUS86 KMFR 091529
FLSMFR


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford, OR
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
California...

  Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County...
  South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County...
  Rogue River near Agness affecting Curry County...
  Sprague River near Beatty affecting Klamath County...

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California...
 
  Klamath River near Seiad Valley affecting Siskiyou County...
  Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County...
  Scott River near Fort Jones affecting Siskiyou County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too 
deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio.

&&

ORC011-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.170209T2023Z-170210T2345Z/
/MYPO3.2.ER.170209T2023Z.170210T0000Z.170210T1145Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
* from this afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At 12:15 AM Thursday the stage was 24.7 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to peak late
  this afternoon at around 36.3 feet then remain above flood stage
  into Friday.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding 
  upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point can be expected. Some 
  residents of low-lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be
  threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.6 feet
  on Dec 18 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417     

$$

CAC049-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CNBC1.2.ER.170208T0000Z.170210T1400Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pit River near Canby.
* At  6:45 AM Thursday the stage was 9.4 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.9 feet by 
  Friday morning.  Additional rises may be possible thereafter
  with the river forecast to remain above flood stage into early
  next week.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Expect major flooding in Beiber, Nubeiber, 
  and throughout northwest Lassen county.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.8 feet
  on Jan 2 1997.

&&

LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121     

$$

ORC015-092129-
/O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0014.170209T2343Z-170211T0010Z/
/AGNO3.1.ER.170209T2343Z.170210T0600Z.170210T1210Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rogue River near Agness.
* from this afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to reach
  flood stage late this afternoon and peak at around 17.7 feet
  late tonight. The river is forecast to remain above flood
  stage into Friday.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...River rises to this stage or above may 
  affect recreation interests along the Rogue River at and below 
  Agness, Oregon. Sudden river rises of a few feet may also affect 
  home and business owners with boat docks on the river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 feet
  on Dec 14 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4274 12390 4246 12442 4237 12442 4261 12385 4274 12375     

$$

ORC011-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0010.170210T0304Z-170211T1715Z/
/COQO3.1.ER.170210T0304Z.170210T1400Z.170211T0515Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Coquille River at Coquille.
* from this evening to Saturday morning.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 19.6 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to rise above
  flood stage this evening and build to a peak of around 21.9 feet
  on Friday morning. The river is forecast to remain above flood
  stage into early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...The Coquille River is at flood stage. Expect
  flooding of farmland and low-lying areas throughout the flood plain
  along the Coquille River.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet
  on Dec 16 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441     

$$

CAC093-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0011.170209T1800Z-170211T1400Z/
/SEIC1.1.ER.170209T1800Z.170210T0800Z.170211T0200Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Klamath River near Seiad Valley.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to reach flood
  stage this morning and reach a peak of around 17.2 feet early 
  Friday morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage
  early Saturday morning.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.3 feet
  on Feb 7 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 12342 4181 12321 4176 12303 4183 12299 4188 12332     

$$

CAC093-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170211T0400Z/
/FTJC1.1.ER.170209T1521Z.170210T0600Z.170210T1600Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Scott River near Fort Jones.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 14.1 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to reach
  flood stage this morning and build to a peak of around
  17.9 feet late this evening. The river is forecast to
  fall below flood stage on Friday.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.2 feet
  on Feb 7 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 12303 4164 12316 4155 12285 4163 12280 4167 12295     

$$

ORC035-092129-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.170210T0200Z-170212T1100Z/
/BTYO3.1.ER.170210T0200Z.170211T0000Z.170211T2300Z.NO/
729 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sprague River near Beatty.
* from this evening to late Saturday night.
* At  6:15 AM Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. The river is forecast to
  reach flood stage this evening and build to a peak of
  around 9.1 feet on Friday. The river is forecast to
  fall below flood stage on Saturday night.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Flooding of structures along the Sprague 
  River in the vicinity of Sprague River,  Lone Pine, and down stream
  can be expected. Widespread agricultural flooding is likely in this
  area as well.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.3 feet 
  on May 1 2006.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 12094 4252 12126 4253 12172 4243 12165 4235 12095     

$$
DW

714 
WGUS86 KMFR 092126
FLSMFR


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford, OR
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

...The Flood Warning is canceled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Rogue River near Agness affecting Curry County...

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County...
  South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County...
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California...

  Klamath River near Seiad Valley affecting Siskiyou County...
  Pit River near Canby affecting Modoc County...
  Scott River near Fort Jones affecting Siskiyou County...
  Sprague River near Beatty affecting Klamath County...

.The Rogue River at Agness is no longer forecast to reach flood stage. 
All other flood warnings remain in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too 
deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio.

&&

CAC049-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170213T2200Z/
/CNBC1.3.ER.170208T0000Z.170210T0300Z.170213T1000Z.UU/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pit River near Canby.
* At 11:45 AM Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest at 10 feet between 8 PM PST this
  evening and 10 AM PST Friday.
* The river is forecast to remain above flood stage until 2 AM PST
  Monday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Expect major flooding in Beiber, Nubeiber, 
  and throughout northwest Lassen county.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.8 feet
  on Jan 2 1997.

&&

LAT...LON 4119 12109 4145 12058 4155 12065 4139 12118 4119 12121     

$$

ORC011-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170211T0145Z/
/MYPO3.2.ER.170209T2337Z.170210T0000Z.170210T1345Z.NO/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 30.51 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest at 34.30 feet at 10 PM PST this
  evening.
* The river is forecast to remain at flood stage until 730 AM PST
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect flooding along some section of 
  Highway 42 downstream from Myrtle Point and along the highway to
  Powers. Widespread flooding of agricultural land should be expected.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 34.44 feet
  on February 7, 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417     

$$

ORC011-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0010.170209T2237Z-170212T0812Z/
/COQO3.1.ER.170209T2237Z.170210T2200Z.170211T2012Z.NO/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Coquille River at Coquille.
* until late Saturday night.
* At 12:30 PM Thursday the stage was 20.9 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest at 22.56 feet beginning 5 AM PST
  Friday and then remain at or near that crest through 8 PM PST
  Friday evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Some farm buildings may be threatened and 
  roads covered in low areas by rising water. Expect widespread 
  flooding throughout the Coquille River floodplain.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.64 feet
  on Dec 16 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441     

$$

CAC093-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170211T1500Z/
/SEIC1.1.ER.170209T2013Z.170210T1000Z.170211T0300Z.NO/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Klamath River near Seiad Valley.
* At 12:00 PM Thursday the stage was 14.8 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* This river is forecast to crest at 17.44 feet at 330 AM PST
  Friday morning.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.3 feet
  on Feb 7 2015 and 17.04 feet March 24, 1998.
* At 15 feet some low lying structures may be flooded. Flooding is not
  expected on Highway 96 until the river reaches 20 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 12342 4181 12321 4176 12303 4183 12299 4188 12332     

$$

CAC093-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170211T0530Z/
/FTJC1.1.ER.170209T1745Z.170210T0600Z.170210T1730Z.NO/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Scott River near Fort Jones.
* At 12:30 PM Thursday the stage was 15.8 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* This river is expected to crest at 18.4 feet at 10 PM PST this 
  evening.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.2 feet
  on Feb 7 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 12303 4164 12316 4155 12285 4163 12280 4167 12295     

$$

ORC035-100325-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.170210T0700Z-170213T1430Z/
/BTYO3.1.ER.170210T0700Z.170211T2100Z.170213T0230Z.NR/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sprague River near Beatty.
* from this evening to Monday morning.
* At 12:15 PM Thursday the stage was 8.0 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 8.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to creast at 10.3 feet Saturday afternoon and
  evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding of numerous homes and other 
  structures along the Sprague River is likely. Some relocations and 
  evacuations have taken place at these river stages in the past.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet 
  on Jan 1 2006.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 12094 4252 12126 4253 12172 4243 12165 4235 12095     

$$

ORC015-092155-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170211T0010Z/
/AGNO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
125 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

The Flood Warning is canceled for
  the Rogue River near Agness.
* At 12:30 PM Thursday the stage was 15.7 feet. 
* Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below Flood Stage between 16.2 feet
  and 16.6 feet around 10 PM PST this evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...River rises to this stage or above may 
  affect recreation interests along the Rogue River at and below 
  Agness, Oregon. Sudden river rises of a few feet may also affect 
  home and business owners with boat docks on the river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 feet
  on Dec 14 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4274 12390 4246 12442 4237 12442 4261 12385 4274 12375     

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
341 AM PST Thu Feb 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...A high-impact wind and rain event is underway. I'll
first detail the wind situation. South to north pressure
gradients are increasing across the forecast area. South wind of
50kt has been observed in the lowest levels scanned the North
Bend profiling radar, which is uncommon and indicative of how
strong the wind field is. Additionally, 10 observation sites
across 8 counties have recorded gusts of 57 mph or greater
overnight. Power outages have been noted in Bandon due to
wind/tree damage. The coastal strong winds will ease some late
this morning and afternoon, while some areas east of the Cascades
will experience high winds through the afternoon. Even West Side
valley locations will see some gusty conditions through the
morning...continuing into early afternoon as the cold front
passes through and unstable conditions bring some moderate
southwest winds through. Some West Side areas that received heavy
snow earlier this winter may have a significant number of weakened
trees, and any moderate to strong wind could damage these
further.

Next, heavy rain and flooding. An observed precipitable water
value of 1 inch at Medford during a 06Z balloon sounding is the
daily record for Feb 9. This is indicative of how much moisture
the latest atmospheric river event is bringing with it. Half inch
per hour rainfall rates were observed yesterday evening, and
radar/satellite imagery suggests another round of very heavy rain
is in store this morning for the coast and areas just inland. We
have issued an Areal Flood Advisory for Josephine and Curry
Counties as well as portions of Coos and Douglas Counties. Urban
and small stream flooding is possible with these heavier bands of
rain moving through. Main stem rivers like the South Fork of the
Coquille at Myrtle Point and the Coquille at Coquille are expected
to flood, and Flood Warnings have been issued for these points.
The Illinois River at Kerby is forecast to reach the highest level
since 1970, though current readings and a lull in the heavy rain
early this morning suggest it may peak below the forecast of 31.94
feet. Even so, the heaviest rain has yet to reach this area, and
the Illinois River will certainly rise rapidly this morning, and
folks along the river should monitor the river closely and take
necessary precautions.

The heavy rain will impact Siskiyou County later this morning,
and we have issued an Areal Flood Advisory for this area too. No
doubt that rapid snowmelt will result in sharp river and stream
rises, and some main stem rivers will flood, like the Scott River
at Fort Jones and the Klamath River at Seiad Valley. Additional
concerns exist for heavy rains atop wildfire burn scar areas like
the Gap fire and the Happy Camp and July Complexes. Flash flooding
is possible near these locations, and a Flash Flood Watch
continues through the morning.

Farther east, warm conditions and some rainfall is leading to
snowmelt and river rises, and we have issued Flood Warnings for the
Sprague River at Beatty and the Pit River at Canby. Latest model
data shows these areas receiving moderate rain amounts this
afternoon.

After another upper trough swings through Friday and brings moderate
snowfall to areas above 3500 feet, drying and warming daytime
conditions are expected, though overnight lows will be substantially
lower than recent nights because of the drier air mass and clearing
skies.

Please see the previous extended discussion below.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...The long term period
continues with the break in precipitation. Easterly winds during this
period will at least somewhat help to dry things out. High
temperatures west of the Cascades will rise into the mid to upper
50s while the lows will rise from the low to mid 30s to the upper
30s to low 40s through the period. East of the Cascades,
temperatures will remain slightly above normal during this time
frame with temperatures in the low to mid 20s raising to the low 30s
by the end of the week. Highs, on the other hand, will be between
the mid 40s to low 50s.

The next wet system will approach the area beginning Wednesday. This
will likely be a return to the wet and active pattern that we've
seen this winter. Although confidence is pretty high that southern
Oregon and northern California will see precipitation, confidence is
particularly low regarding the intensity and duration. Therefore, it
is difficult to pin down particular impacts. That being said,
despite the extended period being dry, it will be warm and snow
levels will continue to rise through the end of the week. So
although the small creeks and streams will have a chance to go back
to normal, it won't take an extremely strong or a long-duration
storm to create adverse impacts. Therefore, it is going to be
important monitor the upcoming situation as it unfolds. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z TAF CYCLE...Strong south winds will continue
at the coast, in the mountains, and over some areas east of the
Cascades, gradually easing from west to east through the
afternoon. Severe turbulence is possible, especially around
mountainous areas. Heavy rain at the coast and just inland will
bring periods of IFR/MVFR conditions with plenty of mountain
obscuration. Inland, mostly VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings and
terrain obscuration. Wind shear will also be possible at KRBG and
KMFR, but winds should surface some this morning. Wind gusts of
35 kt or higher are expected at KLMT through today. An airport
weather warning is in effect for this hazard. Moderate to locally
heavy rain will continue through the afternoon with widespread
terrain obscurations and a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs. Winds will lower
this evening and rainfall will decrease in coverage and
intensity. However expect local MVFR cigs to continue and numerous
mountain obscurations. CC/SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday 8 February 2017...A very
strong southerly low-level jet has developed ahead of a cold
front, resulting in storm force winds continuing through the
early morning hours. It almost goes without saying that this will
generate very high and dangerous seas, and mariners should
consider remaining in port until the storm passes. The cold front
will move onshore later this morning and winds will subside below
gale force, but high and very steep seas will persist Thursday
afternoon into Friday with weaker fronts moving onshore. High
pressure will then build offshore making for a relatively quiet
weekend with moderate northwest swell. -Spilde/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ025>031.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-022.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022.
     Flood Watch through this afternoon for ORZ021>023.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023>025.
     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ024.
     High Wind Warning until noon PST today for ORZ027-028.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ026-029.

CA...High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ080>085.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084.
     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for CAZ080.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ081.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
     Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

NSK/BMS/CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1223 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
02/09/2017  M2.80 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR RAINFALL 2.80 INCHES 24 HOUR
            RAINFALL 3.06 INCHES FROM 8PM TO 9PM,
            RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1224 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
02/08/2017  M46 MPH          CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
502 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GOLD BEACH              42.41N 124.42W
02/09/2017  M4.10 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM