Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR

222 
WWUS86 KMFR 131104
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
404 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017


ORZ624-140000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.170713T2100Z-170714T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
404 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017


...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR HAINES 6 OVER THE ANA FIRE IN FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 624...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHEAST FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT 
today. A Fire Weather Watch for haines 6 remains in effect from 
Friday afternoon through Friday evening. A Fire Weather Watch for 
gusty winds and low relative humidity has also been issued. This 
Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through 
Friday evening.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and
  high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant 
  spread of any new and existing fires. There is also potential 
  for very dry and unstable conditions which supports extreme 
  fire behavior. Plume domination is possible over the Ana fire 
  with locally-generated erratic and gusty winds. Spotting 
  could be problematic.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. 

* Counties affected: 
  In South Central OR...Klamath...Lake. 

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* Haines: Haines Index of 6 is possible Friday afternoon.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ285-140000-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.170713T2100Z-170714T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
404 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch, which is in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM
PDT today.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of
  any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Counties affected: 
  In Northern CA...Modoc.

* Wind: Southwest around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 12 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ625-140000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
404 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR HAINES 6 OVER ANA...MCCARTY...AND HART 
WILDFIRES IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625...

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support extreme
  fire behavior. Plume domination is possible with locally-generated
  erratic and gusty winds. Spotting could be problematic.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Ana...Hart..and and McCarty wildfires in
  Fire Weather Zone 625. 

* Counties affected:  
  In South Central OR...Hart wildfire in Harney...and Ana and 
  McCarty wildfires in Lake. 

* Haines: Haines Index value of 6 is possible Friday afternoon.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford

443 
WWUS86 KMFR 131808
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1108 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

CAZ285-141300-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0007.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.170713T2100Z-170714T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
1108 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR 
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
285...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of
  any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Counties affected: 
  In Northern CA...Modoc.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 9 to 12 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
  are either occurring now, or will shortly.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

$$

ORZ625-141300-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0007.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0006.170713T2100Z-170714T0300Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1108 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 FOR HART WILDFIRE IN SOUTHERN FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 625...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
HAINES 6 FOR ANA...MCCARTY...AND HART WILDFIRES IN FIRE WEATHER 
ZONE 625...

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support extreme
  fire behavior and rapid rates of spread. 

* Affected area: 
 In South Central OR...Ana...Hart...and McCarty wildfires in Fire 
  Weather Zone 625.

* Counties affected: 
  In South Central OR...McCarty wildfire in Harney...and Ana and
  Hart wildfires in Lake.

* Haines: Haines Index value of 6 this afternoon for Hart wildfire.
  Haines Index value of 6 Friday afternoon for Ana...Hart...and 
  McCarty wildfires.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
  are either occurring now, or will shortly.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

$$

ORZ624-141300-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0007.170714T2100Z-170715T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.170713T2100Z-170714T0300Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
1108 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR 
STRONG WIND WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
624 AND HAINES 6 FOR ANA FIRE IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of any
  new and existing fires. For the Ana wildfire, very dry and
  unstable conditions could support extreme fire behavior and rapid
  rates of spread.

* Affected area: 
 In South Central OR...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 624 for gusty
winds and low humidity. Ana wildfire in Fire Weather Zone 624 for
Haines 6.

* Counties affected: 
  In South Central OR...Southern Klamath and Lake for winds and
  humidity. Northern Lake for Haines 6 over Ana wildfire.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* Haines: Haines Index of 6 is possible Friday afternoon.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
  are either occurring now, or will shortly.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
919 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...The forecast was updated this morning to reflect
diminishing low clouds in the Coquille Valley. The marine layer is
expected to similarly extend into Coos County and also reach the
Douglas County coast this evening into Thursday morning. One of the
main items of interest for the afternoon package will be the
extent of hot and breezy conditions with low relative humidities
during the next week. Also, the need for any adjustments to the
probability of afternoon and evening thunderstorms from Friday
into early next week. A few low topped cumulus buildups are
expected over the higher terrain today and Thursday. We will need
to examine the full suite of data, but a slight chance of
thunderstorms may need to be introduced to Friday. The 12Z GFS has
arrived and indicates weak instability over the Siskiyou
Mountains, Cascades, and Lake County. The Saturday forecast is
also a candidate for adjustment as the GFS has shifted the pattern
slightly farther to the east. It develops another region of weak
instability on Saturday from Siskiyou County northeastward across
the east side. The probability of thunderstorms diminishes early
next week with a shift to a westerly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...12/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR will continue for the next 24
hours with one exception. IFR will linger until around 17Z in the
Coquille Valley then develop again around 02Z this evening at the
coast north of Cape Blanco extending into the Coquille Valley and
Coos Bay including North Bend. -Petrucelli/DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday 12 July 2017...High pressure
offshore and a thermal trough near the coast will produce moderate
north winds into tonight. Winds will ease up some on Thursday into
Friday, then increasing again Saturday into early next week with
gales possible for the southern waters by Sunday. -Petrucelli

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

Low pressure over the NE Pacific and high pressure over the
Rockies will keep a fairly static weather pattern in place over
the region for the next several days. Dry southwest flow aloft
combines with temperatures up to 5 degrees above normal for inland
areas. This, with with occasional weak shortwaves and slightly
breezy conditions will provide for continued drying of forest
fuels allowing fire danger to ramp up a notch by the weekend and
into early next week.

With breezy dry flow over the region yesterday a couple of new
fires erupted over the east side late in the day at and Hart
Mountain and to its north. Smoke was also continuing to be
produced in western Siskiyou county by the Island incident.

As we move into the weekend a slight chance for thunderstorms
still looks appropriate for Saturday mainly from Siskiyou county
extending to their northeast across south-central Oregon. Then on
Sunday things may be trending to push this threat eastward but
have held off on any changes for now. Any storms will likely not
be big rain-makers.

The models indicate the upper low over the NE Pacific will
migrate down the BC coast and then break up and move inland over
Canada and the PacNW from mid to late next week. This should allow
for increased breeziness and a subtle cooling trend. Stavish

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM Wednesday, 12 July 2017...
Hot, dry, and breezy westerly winds are expected each afternoon and
evening through this weekend. The windiest day is very likely to be
Thursday when southwest winds will affect the Shasta Valley and
Cascades eastward. Instability and moisture are expected to increase
for Friday through Sunday as the pattern becomes more favorable for
thunderstorm activity, but confidence in timing and location of
potential thunderstorms remains generally low. The combination of
heat and possible remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Eugene
will bring the slight thunderstorm threat Friday into this weekend
to Northern California and the East Side.

Keep in mind, the details on the thunderstorm threat Friday into
this weekend are likely to waiver on day to day, so watch for
updates on this. Altogether, we'll continue to be sandwiched between
low pressure to the northwest and the four corners high to the
southeast, making us susceptible to small variations in each of
these for our variations in sensible weather to include thunderstorm
potential.

The models show a southwest flow aloft returning Monday into the
middle of next week, bringing a drier air-mass aloft and more stable
conditions with the bulk of the mid level moisture and instability
shifting east of our area. Note, the GFS and ECMWF show a shortwave
moving into our area, but mid level moisture is lacking. The details
on this could change in the days to come, but taking this at face
value does not look favorable for thunderstorms. BTL/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

DW/SK/MAP