Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2017
Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 4, 2017, 2:23 PM PDT for Modoc County, California. It took effect at Aug 5, 2017, 2:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 4, 2017, 2:23 PM PDT (21:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 5, 2017, 2:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Aug 5, 2017, 11:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
County Modoc County, CA
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2581 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
844 WWUS86 KMFR 042123 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 CAZ285-051215- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.170805T2100Z-170806T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0022.170805T2100Z-170806T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger may contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: For the warning...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create extreme fire growth potential. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ624-051215- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Affected area: For the warning: The south eastern portion of zone 624 just south of Silver Lake and just east of Klamath Falls. For the watch: Mainly the mountainous areas of the zone. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: West to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. * Humidity: as low as 9 percent. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create extreme fire growth potential. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ622-050400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY THE VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 622, primarily in the valleys and lower elevations. * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new fires. * Wind: North to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create extreme fire growth potential. $$ CAZ280-282-051215- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 282... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Affected area: Most of Fire Weather Zone 280 and areas generally from Mount Shasta westward in Fire Weather Zone 282. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ284-051215- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Affected area: Most of fire weather zone 284 * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ621-623-051215- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 223 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Affected area: Most of fire weather zones 621 and 623 * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford
4 follow-up statements
247 WWUS86 KMFR 050405 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 CAZ285-051615- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0022.170805T2100Z-170806T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Humidity: as low as 14 percent. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create extreme fire growth potential. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ624-051615- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: west 5 to 10 mph. * Humidity: as low as 11 percent. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ622-050515- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... Conditions have improved and are no longer considered an immediate threat. Thus, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. $$ CAZ280-282-051615- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 282... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280 and 282. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ CAZ284-051615- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ621-623-051615- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 905 PM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 621 and 623. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
798 WWUS86 KMFR 051118 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 CAZ285-060000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0022.170805T2100Z-170806T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Humidity: as low as 14 percent. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ CAZ280-282-060000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 282... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280 and 282. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ CAZ284-060000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ624-060000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Wind: west 5 to 10 mph. * Humidity: as low as 11 percent. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ621-623-060000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 418 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 621 and 623. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
645 WWUS86 KMFR 052113 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 CAZ285-061300- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170806T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 285. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ280-282-061300- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 282... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 282... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zones 280 and 282. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ284-061300- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284 ... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 284. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ624-061300- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR WESTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area for Warning on Sunday: In Southern Oregon...Western Fire Weather Zone 624...west of Beatty. * Affected area for Watch on Monday: In Southern Oregon...All of Fire Weather Zone 624. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ621-623-061300- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: In Southern Oregon...Most of Fire Weather Zones 621 and 623. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ281-061300- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR HIGH TERRAIN OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area for Warning Sunday: In Northern California...high terrain areas of Fire Weather Zone 281. * Affected area for Watch Monday: In Northern California...All of Fire Weather Zone 281. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short period of time. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ622-061300- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: In Southern Oregon...Higher terrain areas of Fire weather zone 622 * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ617-061300- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- 213 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 617... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Affected area: Most of fire weather zone 617 * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford
389 WWUS86 KMFR 060545 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 CAZ285-061745- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170806T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285, including most of the Modoc National Forest. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard && $$ CAZ280>282-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281 AND 282... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281 AND 282... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281 and 282, including the Klamath and Shasta National Forests. * Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ CAZ284-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284, including the Klamath and Modoc National Forests. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ624-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Affected area for Warning on Sunday: In Southern Oregon... Western Fire Weather Zone 624...west of Beatty. * Affected area for Watch on Monday: In Southern Oregon...All of Fire Weather Zone 624. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ621-623-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.170806T2000Z-170807T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 621 and 623, including the Siskiyou and Cascade mountains. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at http://weather.gov/medford/hazard $$ ORZ622-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 622, including all of the higher terrain of Jackson county, and Ashland. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ617-061745- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0017.170807T1800Z-170808T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- 1045 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 617... * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 617, including the Cascades and Cascade foothills of Douglas County. * Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 4, 9:22 AM PDT, 5 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 9:22 AM PDT, 5 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
922 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017
.DISCUSSION...Morning update. Plentiful smoke continues over the
region, but temperatures will continue to slowly decline over the
next several days. Current forecast looks on track and will not
update this morning. Sven
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2017/
DISCUSSION...An Excessive heat warning or heat advisory remains
in effect for most of the area through this evening. Temperatures
will trend about 5 degrees lower today compared to yesterday, but
that will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal and near to
locally above record levels. While this looks to be the last day
with temperatures above the threshold for excessive heat for at
least the next couple of weeks, there will not really be much
relief with only another 5 degrees or so of further reduction of
daily high temperatures...still about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
through next week.
With the inland movement of the thermal trough, a dense marine
layer with patchy fog is present along the coast. This marine
layer will gradually dissipate but likely linger in most locations
into the afternoon then return this evening. That will be a common
pattern during the next week.
The focus of the forecast is transitioning away from excessive
heat to the risk of thunderstorms. That includes an air mass that
will remain stable and very dry today, although with gusty northwest
afternoon and evening winds. The increase in winds is due to
increased pressure/temperature gradients as a trough over the
northern Rockies moves slowly southeastward, the ridge aloft over
our region is flattened and a trough offshore from northern
California slightly deepens and tracks toward the coast. The
approach of the trough toward the coast will bring an increase in
mid-level moisture aloft to the Sierra Nevada today, then likely
spreading into Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, as well as the far
southern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties on Saturday afternoon
and evening for a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms. These
storms are not likely to be excessively dry, but they will be slow
moving and may remain anchored over the higher terrain with a high
probability of any lightning strikes creating new wildfires. The
timing and track of shortwaves also leads to the possibility of
overnight thunderstorms...as early as Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Instability and available moisture aloft will increase on Sunday
and spread across the region for a more widespread coverage of
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Beyond Sunday evening, model differences in the track of the
coastal trough increase. But, shortwaves rotating around the low
and a generally slow evolution of the upper level pattern are
likely to bring a persistent period of above normal temperatures
with a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms for at least a
portion of our area each day next week.
.AVIATION...04/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR will prevail through the TAF
period for inland TAF sites, but local visibility reductions are
possible due to wildfire smoke. IFR to LIFR Cigs/vis in fog and low
cloud will affect much of the coast through mid-morning. Conditions
will improve to VFR late morning, then clouds/fog return this
evening. -Wright
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday 4 August 2017...Winds will
become northerly again today, but will remain fairly light through
Sunday along with relatively low seas. North winds will gradually
strengthen early next week with potentially hazardous conditions
developing, especially for small craft, south of Cape Blanco.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 240 AM Friday 4 August, 2017...Hot
and dry weather will continue today, with temperatures 10 to 15
degrees above normal. The heat will gradually lessen over the
weekend, but temperatures will still remain above normal. As a
result, heat-related illness will remain a concern for firefighting
crews. All possible precautions should be taken to ensure that crews
stay hydrated and avoid heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Even crews
in the higher elevations will not be able to avoid to the heat with
afternoon temperatures expected to be in the 90s again today.
With the thermal trough having shifted east of the Cascades, strong
west winds will develop this afternoon. A near critical combination
of strong winds and low humidity will exist over much of the area
inland from the coast, but the worst conditions will occur over the
Rogue Valley and portions of the east side. More specifically, this
includes fire weather zones 622, 624, and 285, and red flag warnings
remain in effect for these locations.
On Saturday, concerns shift from gusty winds and humidity to
thunderstorm chances. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
most of Modoc County (Fire Weather Zone 285) for abundant lightning
on dry fuels. The axis of monsoonal moisture and instability looks
to be from the Cascades into Lassen County and up into Modoc County.
We'll be analyzing closely whether this axis extends further into
Southern Oregon or not, but at this time conditions look too stable.
On Sunday, an upper trough takes up a position off the northern
California coast and then very slowly drifts inland over northern
California or southern Oregon through next week. Consistency in this
pattern is very good, and this is a pattern that is conducive to
thunderstorm activity over the entire area. Confidence is high that
moisture and instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms, so
the only remaining factor will be the trigger. The mountains often
act as their own trigger, so multiple rounds of thunderstorms are
probable in the mountains from Sunday through next week.
For the rest of the area, shortwaves rotating around the upper low
will generally be required to induce any storms, and confidence in
timing and location of these features is much lower. Nevertheless,
all of our northern California and southern Oregon zones inland from
the coast are liable to see considerable lightning over the next
week. Given the very dry and hot antecedent conditions and the fact
that temperatures will remain above normal, abundant lightning
strikes (even when rain accompanies some storms) will cause fire
starts. The upcoming week has the potential to be a very active fire
weather pattern for much of our area. -Wright
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ624.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ027>030.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ023>029.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ622.
CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ285.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ082>085.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ080>085.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for CAZ285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2:23 PM PDT | Fire Weather Watch | MFR | Modoc, Siskiyou | 24 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in California, 2017Every red flag warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.