Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Medford, OR

869 
WWUS86 KMFR 011117
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...Very dry and unstable conditions expected through Thursday...

.A thermal trough will strengthen west of the Cascades leading to 
very hot temperatures and dry and unstable conditions for most of 
the area today. Hot temperatures, very low relative humidity, and 
gusty afternoon winds will combine with dry and unstable conditions
above the surface will lead to additional fire spread concerns 
through Thursday. The heat will break late this week, but chances 
for afternoon thunderstorms will increase for the weekend.


ORZ623-012330-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Southern Oregon Cascades-
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS OVER EXISTING FIRES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623...

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 623,
  including the Blanket Creek wildfire. 

* Impacts: Very dry, hot, and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires. Gusty winds and low relative 
  humidities are most critical Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: Afternoon minimums as low as 9 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

ORZ616-622-012330-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-Eastern Rogue Valley-
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR HAINES CONDITIONS 6 OVER EXISTING FIRES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 616, including portions of
  Douglas and Coos Counties, and Fire Weather Zone 622, including 
  the Burnt Ridge wildfire.

* Impacts: Very dry, hot, and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires. Gusty winds and low relative 
  humidities are most critical Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: Afternoon minimums as low as 8 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

ORZ619-012330-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS OVER EXISTING FIRES...

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 619, 
  including the Chetco Bar wildfire.

* Impacts: Very dry, hot, and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth today. Plume dominated 
  fire growth is possible along with locally generated erratic, 
  gusty winds that could produce additional spot fires.

* Wind: North to northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: Afternoon minimums as low as 10 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

ORZ620-012330-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 620...

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 620, including portions of
  Josephine and Jackson counties.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry, hot, and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth today.

* Wind: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: Afternoon minimums as low as 10 percent.

* Haines Index: 5 TO 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

ORZ617-012330-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua National Forest-
417 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HAMID'S...

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 617, 
  including portions of the Umpqua National Forest. 

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry, hot, and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth Wednesday and
  Thursday.

* Wind: Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: Afternoon minimums as low as 8 percent.

* Haines Index:  5 to 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

BPN

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

155 
WWUS86 KMFR 012055
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

.Very hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected for most of 
the area through Thursday. This combined with very low relative 
humidity, and gusty afternoon winds, especially west of the 
Cascades, will lead to additional fire spread concerns. Extreme 
heat will break late this week, but winds may become gusty at times
east of the Cascades Thursday and Friday and chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will increase this weekend.

ORZ622-021500-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS OVER EXISTING FIRES IS
CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon Wednesday to 9 PM PDT
Thursday. 

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 622, but especially areas 
  from Gold Hill south to Ashland.

* Impacts: Gusty winds and low relative humidities will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the afternoons and
  evenings both Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 8 percent.

* Counties affected: 
  In Southwest OR...Jackson.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds and low
relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. 

&&

$$

ORZ616-021500-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170803T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING 
FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday. 

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 616, but especially portions of
  the Umpqua Basin.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth through this
  evening and again Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 9 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds and low
relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. 

&&

$$

ORZ623-021500-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Southern Oregon Cascades-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS OVER EXISTING FIRES...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS AND ALSO GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon Wednesday to 9 PM PDT
Thursday. 

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 623,
  including the Blanket Creek and Spruce Lake wildfires. 

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth. Plume dominated fire
  growth is possible along with locally generated erratic, gusty
  winds that could produce additional spot fires. Gusty winds and
  low relative humidities are most critical Wednesday and Thursday
  during the afternoon and evening.

* Wind: north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 9 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth. 

&&

$$

ORZ617-021500-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua National Forest-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon Wednesday to 9 PM PDT
Thursday. 

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 617, but
  especially near Toketee Falls and portions of the Umpqua National
  Forest.

* Impacts: Gusty winds and low relative humidities will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the afternoons and
  evenings both Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 8 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds and low
relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. 

&&

&&

$$

ORZ619-020400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS OVER EXISTING FIRES...

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 619.

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth. Plume dominated fire 
  growth is possible along with locally generated erratic, gusty 
  winds that could produce additional spot fires.

* Wind: North to northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 20 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

$$

ORZ620-020400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
620...

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 620, 
  including portions of Josephine and Jackson Counties, but 
  especially the Illinois Valley.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry, hot, and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth through this
  evening.

* Wind: North to northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds and low
relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. 

$$

MAS

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

250 
WWUS86 KMFR 020402
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

.Very hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected for most of
the area through Thursday. This combined with very low relative
humidity and gusty afternoon winds, especially west of the 
Cascades, will lead to additional fire spread concerns. Extreme 
heat will break late this week, but winds may become gusty at 
times east of the Cascades Thursday and Friday and chances for 
afternoon thunderstorms will increase this weekend.

ORZ616-021615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170803T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT
   WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH
   EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 616...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
   STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE 
   FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 616...

* Affected area: 
  In...Fire Weather Zone 616.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires and Very dry and unstable conditions will support
  extreme fire behavior. Plume domination is possible with 
  locally-generated erratic and gusty winds. Spotting could be 
  problematic.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 9 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create
extreme fire growth potential.

&&

$$

ORZ623-021615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Southern Oregon Cascades-
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM
   PDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 
   WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR 
   STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE
   FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623...

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires and Very dry and unstable conditions will support
  extreme fire behavior. Plume domination is possible with 
  locally-generated erratic and gusty winds. Spotting could be 
  problematic.

* Wind: North 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 9 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create
extreme fire growth potential.

&&

$$

ORZ619-020515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
   STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE 
   FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 619...

$$

ORZ620-020515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
   STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE 
   FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 620...

$$

ORZ617-622-021615-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Eastern Rogue Valley-
902 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM
   PDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6
   WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 622...

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 617 and 622.

* Counties affected: 
  In Southwest OR...Douglas...Jackson.
  In Western OR...Lane.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires and Very dry and unstable conditions will support
  extreme fire behavior. Plume domination is possible with 
  locally-generated erratic and gusty winds. Spotting could be 
  problematic.

* Wind: North 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 8 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* Counties affected: 
  In Southwest OR...Douglas...Jackson.
  In Western OR...Lane.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create
extreme fire growth potential.

$$

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
954 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...An update to the forecast is not necessary. The
focus for the afternoon forecast issuance will be the particulars
of what will be an unusually lengthy and unusually extreme level
of heat this week. This includes the possibility of reaching all-
time high temperatures, and extending the heat advisory and
excessive heat warning products beyond Thursday afternoon...through
Friday afternoon. Wednesday still is expected to be the hottest
day, but it will be nearly as hot on both Tuesday and Thursday.
Inland readings on all 3 days, Tuesday through Thursday, will
likely be higher than on any day since 1992. At these levels, and
considering temperatures will decrease much less than normal
overnight, precautions should be taken to stay cool, and hydrated.

Also of significant focus will be adjustments to the wind and
convective forecasts. As the thermal trough moves inland on
Wednesday, cooler air will move to the coast and afternoon winds
will increase in west side valleys...near the newly arrived
trough. The probability of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
today through Wednesday will be low but greater than zero.
Conditions yesterday were emblematic of the general expectation
with ridge top cumulus cloud development that was capped. The
slight chance probability will be highest today over the Cascades
and from the Modoc County ridges into southern Lake County. A
similar story on Tuesday and Wednesday with a slightly higher risk
for western Siskiyou County. The probability of thunderstorms
still is expected to increase Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z TAF CYCLE...At the coast and just offshore...The
latest fog image is absent of any marine stratus and this will
remain the case for the next 24 hours. The TAF at North Bend shows
VFR for the next 24 hours. Cannot not rule out very brief and
shallow cloud/fog layer between 12-14z, but confidence was not high
enough to put into the TAF. The main concern will be gusty north
winds late this morning through this evening.

Inland...VFR will continue throughout the TAF period, with the
exception of in the vcty of wildfires, where smoke could restrict
vis to under a mile. This will be most prevalent in northern Jackson
County, western Siskiyou County, Modoc County, Southern Lake County,
and over the Cascades. Additionally, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the Cascades, Northern California, and points
eastward late this afternoon and evening. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Monday 31 July 2017...A thermal
trough along the northern California coast will persist through
Tuesday night with steep to very steep seas driven by north winds.
Gales will affect areas south of Port Orford through Tuesday night
with small craft conditions are expected elsewhere, except beyond 3
nm from shore north of Reedsport. The thermal trough will weaken
Wednesday and winds will become lighter. In fact we could see a wind
reversal starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday night
with continued light winds and lower seas. Seas are likely to trend
lower into Saturday. -Petrucelli/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

SHORT TERM...Extremely hot temperatures will develop this week
over inland areas as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.
Hottest temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday for
inland areas. Little relief is expected from the hot temperatures
as overnight lows only briefly lower into the 70s or 60s before
heating up again each day.

Today, inland hot temperatures will rise into the upper 90s to
mid 100s across inland valleys today, with localized temperatures
up to 110 in the lower Klamath River Valley. Temperatures will
soar higher Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the 100 to 115
range for inland valleys. With overnight lows also staying above
normal, this prolonged period of very hot temperatures will bring
dangerous conditions to the area. These hot temperatures are
notable and may represent the hottest conditions seen in the last
25 years. This will bring a dangerous situation to inland areas.
An Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories at NPWMFR continue
to highlight the impacts expected from these scorching
temperatures this week.

Take a minute here to read some safety tips for this extreme heat:

* Beat the heat, check the backseat. Never leave people or pets in
  vehicles.

* Rivers are dangerously cold and have strong currents. Wear a life
  jacket if swimming.

* Monitor older adults, young children and those who are sick.

* Stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun.

* Drink plenty of water.

Along the coast, the upper level ridge combined with a strong
surface thermal trough will also bring warm temperatures through
Wednesday. Additionally, localized hot temperatures in the 90s
are expected for the Brookings areas today and Tuesday. This is due
to offshore easterly flow bringing a Chetco effect to the south
Curry coast. The Chetco effect is likely to peak on Tuesday.
Conditions in the Brookings area may remain warm into Wednesday
morning then onshore flow is expected along the south Curry coast
Wednesday afternoon with a return to normal conditions. Along the
Coos and Douglas county coast, expect highs in the lower to mid
70s today with temperatures rising into the upper 70s on
Wednesday. The thermal trough moves inland late Wednesday and on
Thursday, all coastal areas will see a return to normal
temperatures. Also light south winds that develop Wednesday night
and Thursday may bring areas of low clouds to the coast.

A second concern with this weather pattern is the potential for
thunderstorms. Models continue to support a slight chance for
thunderstorms over portions of Northern California and for areas
in the Cascades and eastward today and Tuesday. The potential for
thunderstorms is due to some mid level moisture moving up from the
south and southeast and combining with daytime instability.
Forcing is weak though. So mainly expect cumulus build-ups to
develop in these areas during the afternoon and into the evening
today and Tuesday. However cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm or two, especially over the mountains in Sikiyou
county and in the Cascades. Areas east of the Cascades also have
a slight risk for thunderstorms. Of note, any storms that form
would likely have a high base and may have little rainfall with
them.

Late in the week, as a broad shortwave trough approaches the coast
from the southwest then remains near the coast on the weekend and
into next Monday. This trough will bring additional moisture and
instability and will bring an increased risk for thunderstorms. Best
chances for storms to develop, continue to be over Siskiyou and
Modoc counties in Northern California and from the Cascades eastward
in Southern Oregon. However, depending on the track of the trough,
storms may be possible west of the Cascades at times. Confidence is
low on the details for thunderstorm develop due to variability in
the strength and track of the shortwave.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 320 AM Sunday 30 July, 2017...Very hot and
dry conditions will continue away from the coast for most of the
week with near record breaking heat Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe
Thursday. The magnitude of the heat on each of these days is
expected to be the hottest in the last 25 years. This will be of
high concern for crews involved in firefighting efforts and it is
highly recommended they stay hydrated and take steps to avoid heat
exhaustion or even heat stroke. Even crews in the higher elevations
will not be immune to the heat with afternoon temperatures expected
to be in the 90s with little relief at night.

The thermal trough is expected to hover west of the Cascades the
next few days resulting in at least a Haines 5 conditions with
Haines 6 more than likely over the fires. Red Flag warnings and fire
weather weather watches remain in effect for today and Tuesday. Also
a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for gusty winds and low
relative humidity across northwest sections of the the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Please see RWFMFR for more details on all of
the warnings and watches.

Thunderstorms...The models show marginal instability along and east
of the Cascades and northern California this afternoon and evening.
However, the air mass remains dry below 500mb with little or no
trigger. The most likely outcome will be building cumulus over the
Cascades and mountains in northern California and east side. However
could not rule out a stray thunderstorm or two, therefore the slight
chance of thunderstorms have been retained late this afternoon and
evening. On Tuesday the models show increasing instability and
moisture in portions of Northern California and Cascades with weak
shortwaves moving in these areas late Tuesday afternoon and evening
which could be enough to trigger a storm or two. Therefore have
decided to add a slight chance of thunderstorms in these areas.

Meanwhile, the thermal trough will remain along the coast resulting
in breezy east to northeast winds near and at the ridges in portions
of Fire zones 618, 619 and 280 tonight into Tuesday morning with
moderate recoveries. While not quite as strong, northeast winds will
remain gusty and recoveries will trend worse tonight Tuesday night
with locally poor humidity recovery. Offshore winds will become
noticeably weaker Wednesday night but recoveries will be nearly as
poor as the previous couple of nights.

No thunderstorms are expected Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
a weak upper trough approaching the California coast Thursday night
through Friday which could tap into some monsoonal moisture. This in
combination with multiple shortwaves moving into our area could
bring an increased chance of thunderstorms and its not out of the
question we could be dealing with nocturnal storms Thursday night
with more thunderstorms possible Friday and Friday night. Keep in
mind it's still a ways out and the details on where the best chance
for thunderstorms will be are likely to change in upcoming days, but
given the high fire danger, this is something that we'll need to
keep a close watch on. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     ORZ021-027>030.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for ORZ021>029.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for
     ORZ619-622-623.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ORZ619-622-623.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ORZ616.
     Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ023.

CA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     CAZ082>085.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for CAZ080>085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

DW/MAP/BTL