Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2017

Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Medford, OR

July 30, 20176 counties in Oregon

NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Jul 30, 2017, 3:00 PM PDT for 6 counties in Oregon. It took effect at Jul 31, 2017, 12:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 30, 2017, 3:00 PM PDT (22:00 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 31, 2017, 12:00 PM PDT
Expired
Jul 31, 2017, 9:00 PM PDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Medford, OR

Counties Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR

The radar

The Medford radar (KMAX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2017-07-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2017-07-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2412 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

472 
WWUS86 KMFR 302200
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
300 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...Very dry and unstable conditions expected Monday and Tuesday...

.A thermal trough will strengthen west of the Cascades early this
week leading to dry and unstable conditions over existing
wildfires. Tuesday afternoon and evening very low relative
humidity and gusty winds generated by this instability will lead 
to additional fire spread concerns. The dryness and instability is 
likely to continue into Wednesday.

ORZ619-622-623-311500-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0018.170731T1900Z-170801T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-Eastern Rogue Valley-
Southern Oregon Cascades-
300 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 619...622 AND
623...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 619...622 AND 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Monday. A Fire
Weather Watch has also been issued and is in effect from Tuesday 
afternoon through Tuesday evening.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 619...622 and
  623 including the Chetco Bar, Burnt Ridge, and Blanket Creek wildfires.
 
* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires.

* Wind: North to northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 20 mph in
  fire weather zone 619, and northwest 5 to 10 mph with guts 10 to
  20 mph in fire weather zones 622 and 623.

* Humidity: Minimum afternoon humidities in the 10 to 20 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ616-311500-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-
300 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 616...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening.

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 616, including portions of
  Douglas and Coos Counties.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth during the
  watch time period.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 9 to 15 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

BTL

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
2 follow-up statements
168 
WWUS86 KMFR 311014
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
314 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...Very dry and unstable conditions expected today and Tuesday...

.A thermal trough will strengthen west of the Cascades early this
week leading to dry and unstable conditions over existing
wildfires. Tuesday afternoon and evening very low relative
humidity and gusty winds generated by this instability will lead
to additional fire spread concerns. The dryness and instability is
likely to continue into Wednesday.

ORZ619-622-623-010400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.170731T1900Z-170801T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-Eastern Rogue Valley-
Southern Oregon Cascades-
314 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 619...622 AND 623...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 619...622 AND 623...

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 619...622 and
  623 including the Chetco Bar, Burnt Ridge, and Blanket Creek
  wildfires.

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires.

* Wind: North to northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 20 mph in
  fire weather zone 619, and northwest 5 to 10 mph with guts 10 to
  20 mph in fire weather zones 622 and 623.

* Humidity: Minimum afternoon humidities in the 10 to 20 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

$$

ORZ616-010400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-
314 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 616...

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 616, including portions of
  Douglas and Coos Counties.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth during the
  watch time period.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 9 to 15 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

$$

Petrucelli

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
393 
WWUS86 KMFR 312217
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...Very dry and unstable conditions expected through Thursday...

.A thermal trough will strengthen west of the Cascades leading to 
dry and unstable conditions west to the coast today and Tuesday. 
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening very low relative 
humidity and gusty afternoon winds combined with dry and unstable
conditions above the surface will lead to additional fire spread 
concerns. 

ORZ623-011400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170801T0400Z/
Southern Oregon Cascades-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HAINES 6 conditions WITH EXISTING FIRE...
 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR 
Haines 6 conditions with existing fire... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING FOR gusty winds with low relative humidities FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday. A Fire
Weather Watch has also been issued and is in effect from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday evening.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 623,
  including the Blanket Creek wildfires.

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could
  produce additional spot fires. Gusty winds and low relative
  humidities are most critical Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 20 mph, strongest
  Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings.

* Humidity: Minimum afternoon humidities in the 10 to 20 percent,
  lowest Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ622-011400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170801T0400Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HAINES conditions 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR 
Haines 6 conditions with an existing fire and gusty winds and low
relative humidity... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING FOR gusty winds and low relative humidity...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday. A Fire
Weather Watch has also been issued and is in effect from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday evening.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 622 including
  the Burnt Ridge wildfire.

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires. Gusty winds and low relative
  humidities are most critical Wednesday and Thursday.

* Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 20 mph, strongest
  Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings.

* Humidity: Minimum afternoon humidities in the 10 to 20 percent,
  lowest Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ619-011400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170801T0400Z/
Western Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HAINES 6 conditions WITH EXISTING FIRE... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
Haines 6 conditions with existing fire...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 619 including
  the Chetco Bar wildfire.

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for significant fire growth during the watch and 
  warning time periods. Plume dominated fire growth is possible 
  along with locally generated erratic, gusty winds that could 
  produce additional spot fires.

* Wind: North to northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 20 mph in
  fire weather zone 619, and northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 
  to 20 mph in fire weather zones 622 and 623.

* Humidity: Minimum afternoon humidities in the 10 to 20 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A Haines Index of 6 is 
indicative of extreme dryness and instability above the boundary
layer. When coupled with dry and unstable conditions along and 
near the surface, Haines 6 conditions can lead to plume dominated 
fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ616-011400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0012.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua Basin-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday. A Fire
Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in
effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 616, including portions of
  Douglas and Coos Counties.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth during the
  watch time period.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 9 to 15 percent.

* Haines Index: 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create
extreme fire growth potential.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ620-011400-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0019.170801T1900Z-170802T0400Z/
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
620...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday.

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 620, including portions of 
  Douglas and Coos Counties.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth during the
  warning time period.

* Wind: North 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 9 to 15 percent.

* Haines Index: 5 TO 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will create
extreme fire growth potential.

&&

$$

ORZ617-011400-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0013.170802T1900Z-170804T0400Z/
Umpqua National Forest-
317 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE Hamid's...

* Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 617.

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low relative
  humidity, along with very dry and unstable conditions, will
  support the potential for significant fire growth during the
  watch time period.

* Wind: Northwest 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 8 to 15 percent.

* Haines Index:  5 to 6.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

BTL

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jul 30, 12:17 PM PDT, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 12:17 PM PDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1217 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

The Aviation section has been updated...

.DISCUSSION...An update to the forecast is not necessary. The
focus for the afternoon package will be on two features: fine
tuning the temperature forecast for an unusually long period of
unusually extreme heat across the area this week, and deciding
upon the necessity for any adjustments to the convective forecast.

The heat will be kicked up a notch on Monday and still looks to
reach a peak in most locations on Wednesday with the hottest
readings in about 20 years. There will be a very gradual, not
really noticeable trend of cooling thereafter with temperatures
remaining extreme through Thursday and then temperatures next
weekend back down to about the still quite hot levels of yesterday
and today. Please see the /PDXNPWMFR/ Excessive Heat Warning and
Heat Advisory products for further details.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms again today over the
Warner Mountain region with a focus on southeast Modoc County.
But, some capped cumulus cloud buildups are expected in southern
Siskiyou County and also along the Klamath/Lake County border.
Any thunderstorms that do develop today will produce gusty winds
and little rainfall. Instability will be hindered by warming
aloft on Monday, but there is also an increase of mid-level
moisture which should be sufficient for at least cumulus buildups
over the mountains of Siskiyou and Modoc Counties as well as from
the southern Oregon Cascades eastward. It is a similar story
Tuesday into Thursday with a very minimal but not absolutely zero
risk of thunderstorms. The air mass will change as early as Thursday
night with the possibility of increased available moisture and
increased instability through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAF CYCLE... Along the coast and just
offshore...25 knot northeast winds just above the boundary layer
this morning have cleared much of the coast, but wings of what
appear to be IFR low clouds exist right near and along portions of
the coast north of Cape Blanco. There could be a brief period of
time of an hour or two this afternoon when these low clouds offshore
push onto the coast, to include at KOTH due to a ripple in the flow
advecting in from the north. Gusty winds will also be a concern late
this morning and afternoon along and near the coast and in the
Umpqua Basin to include KRBG. IFR to LIFR CIG/VIS is then again
expected again this evening into Monday morning from about Cape
Blanco northward.

Inland... VFR will continue throughout the TAF period, with the
exception of in the vcty of wildfires, where smoke could restrict
vis to under a mile. This will be most prevalent in northern Jackson
County, western Siskiyou County, Modoc County, Southern Lake County,
and over the Cascades. Additionally, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms in Southern Lake and Eastern Modoc Counties tomorrow
afternoon. BTL/Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Sunday 30 July 2017...A thermal
trough along the northern California coast will persist into
Wednesday with steep to very steep seas driven by north winds. Small
craft advisory conditions are affecting the area from Cape Blanco
south this morning except for gales south of Gold Beach beyond 5 NM
from shore. Conditions will worsen this afternoon and reach a peak
on Monday evening with gales expected south of Port Orford and
advisory conditions elsewhere, except beyond 3 nm from shore north
of Reedsport. Conditions will be improved for Thursday into Friday.
-DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017/

SHORT TERM...The main concern through late this week will be
extremely hot conditions that will develop across inland areas
as a very strong high pressure ridge develops over the region.
This will bring a significant risk for heat related illnesses
through the week. Temperatures will rise in the 90s to low 100s
today across inland locations then will rise well into the triple
digits for most the area Monday through Thursday, with the hottest
conditions likely occurring on Wednesday for most inland
locations. Meanwhile, along the coast, a surface thermal trough
will strengthen today through Wednesday and bring warm and dry
offshore easterly winds to the coast. The thermal trough shifts
inland Wednesday and cooler onshore flow will develop along the
coast.

Today, temperatures are expected to reach around 100 in western
valleys, including the Rogue, Illinois, Applegate, Shasta, Scott
and Klamath River valleys. The hot temperatures will be a concern
especially for those spending time outdoors in the hottest portion
of the day and to sensitive groups. To prevent heat related
illness, when venturing outside, take extra precaution by staying
hydrated, wearing loose clothing and staying in the shade when
possible.

Also of concern today, there is a slight risk for thunderstorms in
far eastern Modoc and southeast Lake counties as weak impulses
combine with some mid level moisture and instability. If storms
develop, this will bring increased fire danger to these areas due
to the potential for lighting and gusty outflow winds. Confidence
is low on if storms will develop over this area or stay to the
east where moisture and forcing is slightly better.

On Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will increase further then
peak on Wednesday as the strong high pressure ridge builds over
the Pacific Northwest. Record breaking high temperatures are
expected for many inland areas during this periods. Western
valleys are expected to see high temperatures in the 100 to 115
range. East side valleys will see temperatures warm into the
upper 90s to 104 range this week. The hottest day is likely to be
Wednesday when the surface thermal trough moves inland then hot
temperatures will linger into Thursday.  Overnight temperatures
will be very warm as well and little relief will be felt overnight
with low temperatures dropping only into the upper 60s to lower
70s. This long duration of excessive heat will bring a dangerous
situation to the area. Excessive heat warnings and heat
advisories are in effect across the area. Please see the NPWMFR
for details.

Unless you have to be outdoors this week, remain in a cool place
and be sure to check on those without A/C. For those who will be
outdoors, practice heat safety; stay hydrated, wear loose
clothing, stay in the shade when possible and limit activity
during the hottest part of the day. Additionally, be extra
attentive with children and pets; young children and pets should
never be left unattended in vehicles especially during hot weather
as car interiors may reach lethal temperatures in a matter of
minutes.

For those who may plan to cool off in area rivers and lakes,
remember the water is still cold, especially compared to outside
temperatures. This will bring an increased risk for hypothermia.
Wear a life jacket, especially when boating, and ease into cold
water rather than jump in.

Along the coast, there will also be warmer conditions with a
moderate to strong Chetco effect expected for the far southern
Curry coast near Brookings. Temperatures in the Brookings are are
expected in the 80s today and Monday then warming into the 90s on
Tuesday. Other areas along the coast will see warm temperatures
in the 70s to near 80 early this week. Onshore flow develops by
late Wednesday afternoon and expect a return to near normal
temperatures along the coast late Wednesday into Thursday.

Late in the week, monsoon moisture and disturbances are forecast
to move up from the south and into the area. This combined with
daytime instability will bring the potential for thunderstorms,
Thursday evening through Saturday, mainly from the Cascades east
in Southern Oregon and across Northern California. While models
are highlighting the potential for thunderstorms late in the week
and into next weekend, there remains variability on where and how
much thunderstorms may be expected. Will need to monitor the
models with future runs for more details.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 320 AM Sunday 30 July, 2017...Very hot and
dry conditions will continue away from the coast for most of next
week with near record breaking heat Tuesday and Wednesday and
maybe Thursday.

Very dry and unstable conditions exist again this afternoon and
evening with Haines 6 possible over the July Complex which can
contribute to to significant fire growth potential there.
Thunderstorm chances are low late this afternoon and evening. There
were a couple of strikes in southeast Fire zone 625 yesterday
evening and there is a risk for at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms there again late this afternoon and evening and also
for eastern Fire Zone 625 over the Warners. Additionally, there is a
concern for significant outflow wind gust potential in eastern Modoc
and southeastern Lake and southwest Harney Counties. Winds aloft are
not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday, bur it will
still be a concern.

Relative humidities will be low again this afternoon and evening
east of the Cascades. However 700 and 600 mb winds and the average
wind between 700 and 500 mb are expected to be weaker this afternoon
east of the Cascades, therefore winds will not be as strong.
However, gusty late afternoon and early evening breezes are expected
west of the Cascades.

Meanwhile, the thermal trough will remain along the coast resulting
in breezy east to northeast winds near and at the ridges in portions
of Fire zones 618, 619 and 280 tonight into Monday morning and again
Monday night into Tuesday morning with moderate recoveries. While
not quite as strong, northeast winds will remain gusty and
recoveries will trend worse Monday night and Tuesday night with
locally poor humidity recovery. While it isn't likely, there is a
chance that conditions in the above mentioned fire zones could get
close to red flag warning criteria on Monday night and Tuesday
night. Confidence is not high enough to issue a watch at this time,
so we'll continue to headline in the Fire Weather Forecast. Offshore
winds will be noticeably weaker Wednesday night but recoveries will
be nearly as poor as the previous couple of nights.

The overall pattern is not expected to change much for the upcoming
week with the ridge setting up right over our area Tuesday into
Friday. The models show varying results with respect to mid level
moisture Monday afternoon and evening. Both the NAM and GFS suggest
most of the moisture is around 500 mb and fairly dry at 700mb with
little or no trigger, marginal instability at best and warming
aloft. A slight chance of thunderstorms have been retained Monday
evening, but the coverage area has been trimmed back. In a nutshell
its not looking favorable for isolated storms late Monday afternoon
and evening, but we'll have the day shift take another look at this
before deciding to remove them completely.

No thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF
and GFS show a weak upper trough approaching the California coast
Thursday night through Friday which could tap into some monsoonal
moisture. This in combination with multiple shortwaves moving into
our area could bring an increased chance of thunderstorms and its
not out of the question we could be dealing with nocturnal storms
Thursday night with more thunderstorms possible Friday and Friday
night. Keep in mind it's still a ways out and the details on where
the best chance for thunderstorms will be are likely to change in
upcoming days, but given the high fire danger, this is something
that we'll need to keep a close watch on. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     ORZ021-027>030.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for ORZ021>029.
     Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ023.

CA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     CAZ082>085.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for CAZ080>085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT
Wednesday     for PZZ356-376.      Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT
Wednesday for PZZ356-376.      Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT
Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

DW/MAP/BTL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 30, 3:47 AM PDTExcessive Heat WarningMFRCoos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath6 days
Jul 30, 3:47 AM PDTHeat AdvisoryMFRCoos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and 1 more6 days
Jul 30, 3:00 PM PDTFire Weather WatchMFRCoos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath24 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2017Every red flag warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.