Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Medford, OR

630 
WWUS86 KMFR 261300
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
600 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ORZ624-625-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.170726T1800Z-170727T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
600 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Most areas in Fire Weather Zones 624 and 
  625.

* Counties affected: 
  In South Central OR...Harney...Klamath...Lake.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
  level of 3. Lightning activity level of 4 is possible in the higher
  terrain areas. Wetting rains will occur with some storms but 
  there will be strikes outside of wetting rains.

* Timing: Scattered thunderstorms will persist through this
  evening...peaking in strength and coverage during the afternoon
  and evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-284-285-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.170726T1800Z-170727T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
600 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 281 284 AND 285...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
 In Northern CA...Most areas in Fire Weather Zones 280...281...284
  and 285.

* Counties affected: 
  In Northern CA...Modoc...Siskiyou.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
  level of 3. Lightning activity level of 4 is possible in the
  higher terrain areas. There will be local wetting rains today...
  but there will be strikes outside of wetting rains.

* Timing: Scattered thunderstorms will persist through this
  evening...peaking in strength and coverage during the afternoon 
  and evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time

&&


$$

ORZ617-621-623-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.170726T1800Z-170727T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
600 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621...623...and Eastern 617...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
 In Southwest OR...Most areas in 621 and 623...and Eastern 617.

* Counties affected: 
 In Northern CA...Siskiyou. In South Central OR...Klamath. In
Southwest OR...Eastern Douglas...Eastern and Southern 
Jackson...Southeastern Josephine. In Western OR...Lane.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
  level of 3. Wetting rains will occur with some storms but there 
  will be strikes outside of wetting rains.

* Timing: Strength and coverage of storms will peak during the 
  afternoon and early evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time

&&


$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

767 
WWUS86 KMFR 262246
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
346 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ORZ624-625-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170727T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
346 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
624 AND 625...

* Impacts:  Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in
new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire
spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625.

* Counties affected: 
  In South Central OR...Harney...Klamath...Lake.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
level of 3. Lightning activity level of 4 is possible in the
higher terrain areas. Wetting rains will occur with some storms
but there will be strikes outside of wetting rains.

* Timing: Scattered thunderstorms will persist through this
evening...peaking in strength and coverage during the afternoon
and evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

CAZ280-281-284-285-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170727T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
346 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
280 281 284 AND 285...

* Impacts:  Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in
new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire
spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281...284 and 285.

* Counties affected: 
  In Northern CA...Modoc...Siskiyou.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
  level of 3. Lightning activity level of 4 is possible in the
  higher terrain areas of the Marble Mountains. There will be 
  local wetting rains today... but there will be strikes outside of
  wetting rains.

* Timing: Scattered thunderstorms will persist through this
evening...peaking in strength and coverage during the afternoon
and evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$

ORZ617-621-623-270600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170727T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
346 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621...
623...AND EASTERN 617...

* Impacts:  Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in
new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire
spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zones 617...621 and 623.

* Counties affected: 
  In Northern CA...Siskiyou.
  In South Central OR...Klamath.
  In Southwest OR...Douglas...Jackson...Josephine.
  In Western OR...Lane.

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning activity
level of 3. Wetting rains will occur with some storms but there
will be strikes outside of wetting rains.

* Timing: Strength and coverage of storms will peak during the
afternoon and early evening.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

803 
WWUS86 KMFR 270359
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
859 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

CAZ280-281-284-285-ORZ617-621-623>625-270500-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170727T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Umpqua National Forest-Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
859 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284...285...617...621...
623...624 AND 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning. Only a few isolated lightning strikes remain in the
forecast area and those should all dissipate by midnight.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
906 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...There were widespread thunderstorms east of the
Cascades and over the Marble Mountains of western Siskiyou
County. Some of these storms did produce moderate to heavy rain
and there were reports of widespread pea sized hail. One
thunderstorms is trying to drift westward over the Cascades toward
Prospect but it looks unlikely to drift into the Rogue Valley.
Will let today's Red Flag Warning expire at 11 PM as planned.

The closed low pressure will start to move inland on Wednesday.
The Rogue Valley appears to be out of the thunderstorm threats but
northern California will be under the threat again. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z TAF CYCLE...Along the coast and over the coastal
waters...Isolated MVFR/IFR cigs will increase to areas of MVFR/IFR
cigs this evening and spread into the coastal valleys and lower
Umpqua valley tonight.  The lower conditions will clear back to the
coast by late Wednesday morning. Over the remainder of the
area...VFR conditions will prevail...but there will be isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity, peaking in the afternoon and
evening. Some higher terrain will be obscured near thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday 25 July 2017...Conditions
will remain hazardous to small craft for all areas tonight with
winds diminishing north of Cape Blanco. Seas will subside below
small craft advisory levels north of Cape Blanco on Wednesday, but
the thermal trough will remain in place through the remainder of
this week and into this weekend, with small craft advisory
conditions persisting south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...
Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed this afternoon generally
from Crater Lake National Park north and northeastward, from Winter
Rim eastward, and across Northern California. The activity, thus
far, has been very slow moving. Despite this slow movement, storm
cores have been very narrow, so the footprint of lightning appears
to be substantially outside of storm cores, for the most part.
Through this evening we expect storm motion to slowly increase.
However, a complicating factor is counteracting increasing low
level northwest winds coming from the West Side and heading
eastward this evening. This is likely to undercut development that
will be generally drifting in from the east. We expect some cells
to form on the Siskiyous and in the Upper Klamath Basin this
evening, attempting to drift onto the West Side this evening and
overnight. Given the current wind flow and the undercutting
northwesterly low level winds, expect that more southeastern edges
of the West Side such as eastern Douglas County, the Ashland area,
and the Applegate are areas to keep a close eye on for thunderstorm
activity this evening and overnight. We have reached convective
temperature here at the airport at 98 degrees now, which greatly
increases the chances that storms will roll into the valley this
evening. With precipitable water values up around and inch, some
areas will see locally heavy rainfall up to about and inch from
these storms. However, due to the nature of the monsoon, some areas
will receive no rain and, possibly, cloud to ground lightning.

Tonight into Wednesday there is expected to be a trough lingering
across the middle of the East Side to the Cascades, possibly into
Jackson County, so we have left some threat of thunder in overnight
into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening showers and
storms are expected to form in similar areas to today, but are
likely to begin further west and then kick out to the east faster.
The core of the pesky upper level low will be drifting across
northern California tomorrow afternoon and evening, with 2 of 3
primary models drifting it across Modoc County. Thus, we expect
another round of significant lightning before things calm down on
Thursday. BTL

LONG TERM...Thursday onward...
The upper low/trough that brought isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the last four days will finally move east of
our area on Thursday. In it's wake will be a southwest flow. A
weak upper trough will approach southwest Oregon Thursday
afternoon bringing building cumulus in parts of western Siskiyou
County and along and east of the Cascades. However instability is
marginal at best and moisture is lacking. The ECMWF shows some
convective feedback in portions of western Siskiyou County and
Cascades, but suspect this may be overdone due to insufficient
moisture and marginal instability parameters. For now we'll keep
any mention of thunder our of the forecast, but if future model
runs show stronger support for storms, they may need to be added.

The above mention upper trough will be slow to move Friday, but like
Thursday, moisture may be lacking and instability marginal at best.
After Friday, the models differ with the evolution of the weak upper
trough. The GFS brings the upper trough just west of the bay area in
California Saturday and could tap into some monsoonal moisture that
could get drawn up into the eastside along with weak shortwaves.
This scenario could result in at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms. In contrast the ECMWF has the trough weakening and
progressing inland which would yield dry conditions. Either way it's
going to be hot with temperatures approaching triple digits for some
west side locations and low to mid 90s for the eastside. For now did
not mention any chance of thunder, but this will have to be
monitored closely.

The ridge is expected to retrograde west near or over our area
Sunday into early next week with continued dry and hot weather. The
GFS has the ridge portioned further east which could tap into
additional monsoonal moisture which could move into portions of the
eastside. The ECMWF has the ridge centered in northern California
and western Nevada. Right now, we think the the chance for
thunderstorms are low during this time period, but this could
change. Temperatures will remain hot with near triple digit readings
in some westside valley locations and low to mid 90s on the eastside.
-Petrucelli

AVIATION...25/18Z TAF CYCLE...Along the coast and over the coastal
waters...Isolated MVFR/IFR cigs will increase to areas of MVFR/IFR
cigs this evening and spread into the coastal valleys and lower
Umpqua valley tonight.  The lower conditions will clear back to the
coast by late Wednesday morning. Over the remainder of the
area...VFR conditions will prevail...but there will be isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity, peaking in the afternoon and
evening. Some higher terrain will be obscured near thunderstorms.

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday 25 July 2017...Conditions
will remain hazardous to small craft for all areas tonight with
winds diminishing north of Cape Blanco. Seas will subside below
small craft advisory levels north of Cape Blanco on Wednesday, but
the thermal trough will remain in place through the remainder of
this week and into this weekend, with small craft advisory
conditions persisting south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM Tuesday 25 July 2017...Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast over the majority of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening, focused primarily from the
Siskiyous and Cascades eastward. However, thunderstorms do have
the potential to move off the terrain and over the West Side
valleys. Some storms will produce wetting rain because of the
increasing moisture and expected slow storm motion, but abundant
lightning will still cause fire starts.

Tonight there is continued potential for thunderstorms, and it looks
like the biggest threat will be east of the Cascades. It now looks
like some areas will have scattered coverage, so the Red Flag
Warning will be extended through the night for those areas.

On Wednesday the upper low that is now along the Northern California
coastline will move eastward, so the area of potential thunderstorm
activity will also move eastward.  Therefore, the Red Flag Warning
for Wednesday will not include some west side areas that are in
today's warning.

The thunderstorm threat will diminish Wednesday night as the upper
low moves out to the east of the area and southwest to west
flow aloft develops over the area. This will likely lead to
breezy west winds during the second half the week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
     ORZ617-621-623>625.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ620-622.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
     CAZ280-281-284-285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ356-376.

FJB/FJB/MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
455 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HAIL             5 SW SCOTT BAR          41.69N 123.07W
07/25/2017  E0.75 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   PUBLIC

            SIZE ESTIMATED. OBSERVER WOULD CALL BACK IF
            LARGER HAIL OBSERVED.

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
508 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

CAZ080-260045-
Western Siskiyou County CA-
508 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM PDT...

At 508 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Indian Scotty Campground, or 11 miles southeast of
Happy Camp, moving west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rainfall may also cause ponding of water on
roadways.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Siskiyou County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 12314 4165 12317 4164 12337 4179 12330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 096DEG 10KT 4170 12320

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
523 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             1 S ADIN                41.19N 120.95W
07/25/2017  M0.25 INCH       MODOC              CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
540 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

CAZ080-260115-
Western Siskiyou County CA-
540 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM PDT...

At 540 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Etna, or 22 miles east of Orleans, moving west at
10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rainfall may also cause ponding of water on
roadways.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Siskiyou County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 12304 4128 12308 4127 12331 4151 12326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 106DEG 9KT 4134 12310

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
748 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             16 SW ETNA              41.30N 123.13W
07/25/2017  M0.75 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL
            COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

MAS