Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

367 
WWUS86 KMFR 231459
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
759 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Dry fuels, gusty northeast winds, and low humidity will combine
to maintain critical fire weather conditions this morning above 
1500 feet near the Curry County Coast...

ORZ618-231700-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170623T1700Z/
Southern Oregon Coast-
759 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 618...

* Impacts: East winds, low relative humidity, and high fire danger
  will likely contribute to a significant spread of any new fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Southwest OR...Portions of Fire Weather Zone 618 above 1500 
 ft.

* Counties affected: 
  In Southwest OR...Curry.

* Wind: northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: as low as 21 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at
http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

* A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
will occur shortly.

* Strong winds and low relative humidity will cause any new fires
to spread very rapidly.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1050 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.Updated aviation discussion.

.DISCUSSION...The main two issues continues to be the heat and
winds offshore. The Chetco Effect is in full swing with the
overnight low in Brookings only dipping into the mid 70s. The
forecast continues to show 95 for Brookings. I'm troubled by the
wind swing to the northwest. That would limit heating today. Will
continue to monitor for possible update. For inland areas, the
heat cranks up Friday and really gets going on Saturday. The
thermal trough continues to build Friday that will raise
temperatures for the western valleys and Siskiyou County. On
Saturday, the thermal trough moves inland to bring the hottest day
of forecast period. I'm evaluating the morning guidance and will
likely bump up temperatures a little bit. Heat advisories and
excessive heat warnings will come out today for Saturday and may
linger into Sunday. The morning low temperatures for the weekend
will be in the mid to upper 60s which limits the overnight relief
from the heat. All areas east of the Cascades will be quite warm
but not to advisory levels.

Moisture from a closed upper low off of California is still
expected for later Sunday and into the first of the week. This
will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to many areas. The
possibility of lightning following the heat wave may increase
fire risk across the area. JBL

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z TAF CYCLE...Strong northerly winds will
impact the coastline today with lighter but still gusty winds into
the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley. North to northeast winds
should diminish this evening in most places but will remain gusty
over the coastal higher terrain. Mostly VFR across the area for the
next 24 hours. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM Thursday, 22 June 2017...An unusually
strong thermal trough will prevail over the south coast into Friday,
causing steep, wind driven seas and gale force north winds. The
strongest winds and steepest seas will occur during the afternoons
and evenings south of Cape Blanco...but even northern portions of
the waters will have strong winds (occasional gale force gusts) and
warning level hazardous seas through tonight. Conditions will
gradually improve this weekend with conditions dropping below
advisory levels by Saturday morning. Southerly flow and fog are
expected Saturday night into Sunday.
-Sven/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...The heat is on. Very hot temperatures will impact
areas from west to east over the next several days, starting with
a heat advisory for the Chetco area of the Curry County coast
today. Highs will likely reach 90 or above in Brookings again
today, following lows this morning in the mid to upper 70s. The
thermal trough will strengthen and begin to slide inland this
weekend. While this will mean relief for the southern coast, where
south winds will bring a surge of clouds and cooler temperatures
late Friday into Saturday, the inland areas will continue to warm
significantly. Triple digit highs will likely be common Saturday
and perhaps SUnday as well for the West Side, with all inland
areas seeing highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of
year. With overnight lows this weekend remaining relatively warm
as well, heat headlines may be necessary for the Rogue and
Illinois Valleys, as well as the valleys of Siskiyou County.

Relief for the rest of the forecast area will arrive late in the
weekend, as an upper level trough slowly pushes into the coast.
Shortwaves in the flow ahead of the trough may be enough to kick
off convection over much of the area Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening, but the timing and location of these storms is
still uncertain. Whether or not thunderstorms do develop,
temperatures will see a marked cooling trend early next week,
dropping to near normal values for the rest of the forecast term.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ022.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT
Friday night for      PZZ350-356-370.      Gale Warning until
midnight PDT Friday night for PZZ356-376.      Hazardous Seas
Warning until midnight PDT Friday night for      PZZ350-356-370-376.