High Wind Watch 11, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
909 AM PST Mon Mar 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area this
morning, with road impacts just above 500 feet in Josephine and
Douglas Counties. Warmer road surface temperatures and lighter
snowfall rates in other low elevation areas such as the Rogue and
Shasta Valleys is mostly resulting in simply wet roadways below
about 1500 feet this morning.

Snow reports this morning have been appreciable in many areas,
with 8 inches in 12 hours in Selma, 2.5 inches in just 3 hours
this morning along the Jackson and Josephine County line in the
Applegate, and 4 inches in Wimer. Lower elevations in Ashland
received about a half an inch, with an estimated 1-3 inches above
2000 feet to 3000 feet on the hilly edges of the Rogue Valley.

We will continue current low elevation headlines through noon
today, as is currently depicted, and expect to keep warnings that
are in effect through this afternoon in place.

Our radar on Mount Ashland is currently down due to equipment
failure and will require technicians to go up there with equipment
to fix it, so we expect it will be down at least through the
morning hours. Satellite and the fringes of the Eureka area's
radar clearly indicate the 3rd shortwave low pressure/vorticity
impulse in the series of 4 that is expected through this
afternoon moving across the area now. This feature is a jet
stream maximum riding through on northwest flow. Through this
afternoon the southwestern portion of the larger scale cold upper
level trough that has been over the area will move northeastward.
This will result in warming temperatures at all levels today,
pushing snow levels to 2000 to 3000 feet by about 4pm PST. It
should be strongly noted that moderate snow will continue at mid
and higher elevations this afternoon through Tuesday, so impacts
will continue over many of the higher mountain pass roadways. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z TAF CYCLE...Widespread MVFR and areas IFR will
continue this morning with widespread showers and snow levels
lowering down to 500 to 1000 feet. There is a chance for
accumulating snow at KRBG, KMFR, and KLMT. Gusty southwest to west
breezes will redevelop this afternoon with showers and a mix of
MVFR/VFR continuing through the evening hours. FB

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Monday 6 March 2017...Steep seas will
continue to subside, but remain steep into tonight. A strong front
will  bring southerly gales on Tuesday with high and very steep seas
reaching a new peak of 15-17 feet late in the afternoon. Winds and
seas should lower below small craft advisory levels Wednesday, but
additional disturbances will bring periods of moderate or higher
winds with steep to very steep seas Thursday. -FB/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM PST Mon Mar 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...Snow showers continue this morning, with snow levels
down to 500 feet, or lower in some places, and accumulating snow
over much of the area. The trough responsible for the instability
and showers will gradually shift to the east today, with warm
advection producing rising temperatures and snow levels through
the afternoon. While precipitation will never really come to and
end today, shower activity will taper off, and snow accumulations
will be negligible by this evening. Winter weather headlines
remain in place, and details can be seen in the winter weather
message at PDXWSWMFR.

High pressure will attempt to build in tonight into Tuesday
morning, but our forecast area will remain under swift northwest
flow aloft. A shortwave within this flow will support the
development of a surface low offshore of the Pacific Northwest,
which will push onshore by midday Tuesday. While this pattern
is known to produce strong storm conditions in this region, the
low will be filling and the front is expected to wash out as it
passes onshore, and this should Keep things on the weaker side.
Snow levels are expected to be above 4000 to 5000 feet, so all but
the mountains and higher passes should receive rain rather than
snow, but amounts should be moderate. Forecast pressure gradients
suggest that winds could be a concern at the coast, where gusts
could reach high wind criteria in some locations, and in the
Shasta Valley and the East Side, where advisories may be needed
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, Tuesday will merely wrap
up to be a breezy wet day, with little impacts for the more
populated and traveled areas.

Beyond Tuesday, the models continue to be very inconsistent form
run to run, most likely as a result of a large blocking ridge
upstream over the Bering Sea. Whereas the next several days were
cool and showery in the model runs this time yesterday, today
those same solutions are suggesting warmer temperatures and very
wet systems. Have trended the forecast towards these newer
solutions, but confidence is low and it seems likely that more
changes will be necessary over the next several forecast cycles.
-BPN

AVIATION...06/06Z TAF CYCLE...A mix of VFR/MVFR will give way to
widespread MVFR and areas IFR cigs/vis tonight through Monday
morning with widespread showers and snow levels lowering down to 500
to 1000 feet. There is a chance for accumulating snow at KRBG, KMFR,
and KLMT. Gusty southwest to west breezes will redevelop Monday
afternoon with showers and a mix of MVFR/VFR continuing through the
evening hours. -Wright

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Monday 6 March 2017...Steep seas will
continue to subside, but remain steep through tonight. A strong
front will likely bring southerly gales on Tuesday with high and
very steep seas reaching a new peak of 15-17 feet late in the
afternoon. Winds and seas should lower below small craft advisory
levels Wednesday, but additional disturbances will bring periods of
moderate or higher winds with steep to very steep seas Thursday.
FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     ORZ029>031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     ORZ028.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ027.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon ABOVE 2500
     FEET for for ORZ024>026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today ABOVE 500 FEET for
     for ORZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today BELOW 2500 FEET for
     for ORZ025-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon BELOW 2500
     FEET for for ORZ024.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     CAZ080-082-083.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ081-084-085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

BTL/BPN/FJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             NORTH BEND              43.40N 124.24W
03/06/2017  M2.0 INCH        COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
937 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 SE SELMA              42.23N 123.52W
03/06/2017  M7.1 INCH        JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.08 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT. THE DURATION
            OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

NSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
941 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     SNOW             3 NE APPLEGATE          42.29N 123.13W
03/06/2017  M6.0 INCH        JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURRENT SNOW DEPTH 6 INCHES .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1005 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 W MERLIN              42.52N 123.46W
03/06/2017  M3.0 INCH        JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 NNW ROGUE RIVER       42.53N 123.20W
03/06/2017  M3.0 INCH        JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1120 AM PST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
03/06/2017  M5.0 INCH        JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, SNOW DEPTH ON
            THE GROUND IS MORE THAN A FOOT .

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM