Gale Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
309 AM PST Sun Jan 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...Cold ground and all the snow remaining in the west
side valleys has allowed temperatures to drop back to near
freezing this morning, and we've also had dense fog develop.
Reports indicate it is icy in spots out there this morning, so we
hoisted a freezing fog advisory (PDXNPWMFR). As the next front
nears, winds will pick up and mix out both the fog and the cool
temperatures, and this could occur at any moment, but probably by
dawn at the latest. There is some small concern that as rain
arrives this morning, there could be a brief period of freezing
rain in the valleys due to continued cold ground and cold surface
temperatures, but confidence was not high enough to issue any
winter headlines. We did mention this in the freezing fog advisory
as something to be on the lookout for.

Rain can be seen on radar spreading north through northern
California right now as the next frontal system offshore nears
and pulls ample moisture up through the Sacramento Valley. Models
remain consistent in showing widespread moderate to heavy rain
across our area today, and a flood watch remains in effect across
our southern tier of counties. Flood advisories will likely be
needed eventually today, and the most likely location to need a
flood warning today will be over central Siskiyou County where the
rain will be heaviest and snowmelt most efficient. We will also
see gusty winds through the Shasta Valley and across the east
side. Guidance shows winds just short of advisories except across
portions of southern Lake and Modoc Counties where a wind advisory
is already in place.

As the cold front moves in tonight, snow levels will fall to
around 3000 feet. At the same time, plenty of moisture will
continue to stream onshore both in the wake of the departing front
and also in advance of another frontal system Monday night into
Tuesday. The result will be very heavy snow over the coastal
mountains, Siskiyous, Cascades, and in the Shasta area above 3000
feet. Winter storm watches (PDXWSWMFR) were hoisted in these
areas for Monday into Tuesday. Below 3000 feet, we'll be dealing
with more heavy rain and continued flooding concerns.

If all that weren't enough, another extremely wet and mild system
will plow in later Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another round
of heavy rain and high snow levels. Although the breaks between
systems get longer later this week, it looks like the parade of
frontal systems may just keep coming. -Wright

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z TAF CYCLE...From the Cascades west...Light rain
showers with areas of MVFR cigs and local IFR cigs/vsbys will persist
into Sunday morning. Steady rain and widespread MVFR with higher
terrain obscured will return later Sunday morning...with heavier
areas of precipitation producing periods of IFR conditions.

East of the Cascades....MVFR/IFR conditions with a mix of rain and
snow showers will diminish tonight...with VFR conditions prevailing.
Steady precipitation, mostly rain, will develop early Sunday morning
and spread across the area by Sunday afternoon with areas of MVFR
cigs and higher terrain obscured. JRS

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Saturday 7 January 2017...Seas will
remain steep to very steep and dominated by wind waves and fresh
swell. The next front on Sunday will bring another round of gusty
winds to the coastal waters. While gales are possible, the latest
model data has trended slightly weaker leading to higher confidence
in a high end advisory strength event. Models are consistently
producing several fronts and periods of gusty winds through the
middle of next week, therefore confidence is high that very steep
and hazardous seas will spread to all areas on Sunday and persist
through midweek. JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for
     ORZ030-031.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     ABOVE 3000 FEET for for ORZ025-027-028.
     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ021-022-024-028.
     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ023-026.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     ABOVE 3000 FEET for for ORZ024.
     Freezing Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for
     ORZ023-024-026.

CA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ085.
     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ080.
     Freezing Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ080.
     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ081>083-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     ABOVE 3000 FEET for for CAZ082-083.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     ABOVE 3000 FEET for for CAZ080.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ370-376.