Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
800 PM PST Sun Jan 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...09/00Z NAM in. 09/00Z GFS in through 84hr.

There is a plethora of warnings, advisories, and watches at the
current time. Those are summarized at the end of this discussion.
The main focus this evening is flooding due to heavy rains
combining with snow melt. There are areal impacts, mostly of the
urban and small stream variety. However, some of the rivers may
hit flood stage as well.

The heaviest rain over the past 8 hours or so has been along the
coast, in the Coast Range and Illinois Valley, and western and
south central Siskiyou County. An Urban/Small Stream Flood
Advisory remains in effect for pretty much the whole west side
except for Coos and Curry counties. Even Modoc County has an
advisory in effect, and some creek flooding has been reported
there.

Rains have abated a bit since this afternoon, but amounts are
still significant. There is plenty more on the way, but the snow
levels will plunge to 2500 to 3000 feet later tonight. This will
decrease the potential impact to area rivers, but they still will
be running high for a while, and flooding remains a possibility on
the Rogue River near Agness as well as the Coquille River.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z TAF CYCLE...From the Cascades west...Steady rain
and widespread MVFR with higher terrain obscured and strong
southerly low level winds will continue into Monday morning...with
heavier areas of precipitation and areas of fog producing periods of
IFR conditions through tonight. Some improvement is expected in the
morning, but most areas will remain at most MVFR.

East of the Cascades....Mainly MVFR with steadier light to moderate
rain and areas of higher terrain obscured. Precipitation will taper
to light showers late tonight with snow levels falling to valley
floors into Monday morning. Snow will continue through the remainder
of the taf period.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Sunday 8 January 2017...Very steep
seas will continue through much of the week with a mix of dominant
wind wave and a fresh southwest swell. Several fronts will pass
through the waters over the next few days, each producing small
craft advisory winds and perhaps brief periods of gale force
gusts. High pressure will then move in late Wednesday with
diminishing seas and calmer winds. -BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM PST Sun Jan 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...A high-impact series of storms is bringing high snow
levels and moderate to heavy rain to much of the forecast area
this afternoon. Latest Happy Camp snow level radar plot shows snow
levels decreasing to 7000 ft in the last hour. Lots of advisory-
level flooding have been reported by various officials and
spotters, and we now have Areal Flood Advisories at FLSMFR for
most areas west of the Cascades and in Northern California.
Several more hours of steady, heavy rain is expected in these
areas before a general break in heavy precipitation this evening.
The flood advisories continue into Monday afternoon.

Additionally, a wind advisory continues this afternoon east of the
Cascades, and a generally windy pattern is expected to last
through the middle of the week with moderate to strong southwest
H7 flow. No data screams high wind warnings right now, but we'll
be monitoring for any wind advisory or warning needs in the
future.

An upper low and a more southwesterly to westerly stream of moisture
behind the cold front will bring snow levels down to around 2500 to
3000 feet early Monday morning.  As moderate to strong flow aloft
becomes more westerly, orographics will enhance snowfall in the
mountains, and we have issued Winter Storm Warnings at WSWMFR for
heavy snow in the Cascades, Siskiyous, Kalmiopsis, and portions of
Northern California including Mount Shasta City. We have highest
confidence in the high mountain areas getting dumped on with heavy
snow. Wind will accompany some of this snow, and brief whiteout
conditions could occur in areas exposed to the strong southwest
wind. The lowest confidence area is Mount Shasta where a host of
data suggests a borderline heavy snow event. Additionally, road
temperature models suggests snow may not continually stick to
roads through the warning period in Mount Shasta City. That said,
we have studies that provide enough confidence in this situation
to issue a Warning down to 3000 feet in Siskiyou County, and a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas around Weed and
Forest Mountain Summit on Highway 3 where lesser snow amounts are
expected.

Additionally, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Monday late
afternoon/evening and overnight hours for areas east of the
Cascades. Several inches to nearly a foot of snow is possible there
as precipitation overspreads that part of the forecast area.

Extended Discussion...Tuesday afternoon through Sunday. The
parade of winter storms continue to march through the region into
next weekend. With the ECMWF holding constant with this very wet
system on Tuesday, have continued to use this QPF for this time
frame for the past several days at least. This system continues to
look like a good atmospheric river event. Dynamics continue to
look very favorable with this system as well with the region in
the left exit region of a of a now stronger 135 KT jet and broad
upper level divergence combining to bring broad and strong lift to
the region. With the high snow levels snow melt will continue to
contribute to the run off, and with the antecedent conditions from
the precip today and tomorrow main stem rivers will see rises. The
Coquille at Coquille and Myrtle Point and the Rogue at Agness are
expected to reach flood stage late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Showers slowly taper off Wednesday into Thursday morning, and the
region is expected to see a lull in the action, but that comes with
a return of the cold weather as we see some clearing that allows
temperates temperatures to fall below freezing aver all inland areas
Friday morning and single digits over the east side.

The weak ridge breaks down and the models diverge on the timing of
systems that move through into next weekend, but most agree that and
active pattern returns. Sven

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
        night for ORZ029>031.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ025-027-028.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE
        3000 FEET for for ORZ025-027-028.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-022-024.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ023-026.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE
        3000 FEET for for ORZ024.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
        night for CAZ085.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ080.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081>083-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE
        3000 FEET for for CAZ082-083.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday ABOVE
        3000 FEET for for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday
        for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday
        for PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/15/15

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