Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Monday)...a deep mid-level trough moving across
the eastern seaboard continues to push an associated cold front
boundary across the Florida peninsula. Models/satellite/radar
data were showing a rather slow progression of the convective band
ahead of the front, which by 3 am EST was still hovering West Central
Florida.

Weather balloon sounding data from 06z depicted PWAT of 1.67
inches, sfc-based cape around 2k and strong upper level SW flow
across the area. And although overall thermodynamic parameters
look conducive to an active FROPA, South Florida remains under
marginal risk for severe, while the rest of the state is now out
of the previous slight risk.

Through 3 AM EST, radar data was showing no significant convection
anywhere across South Florida, with the main band of convection
ahead of the front generating scattered thunderstorms over the
coastal waters off Fort Myers, and to areas just north of Glades
county. But there were also some signs of cell genesis over the
Gulf southwest coastal waters, with some showers already pushing
into Marco Island and Naples area.

In terns of severe weather threat, all of South Florida remains under
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, with best chances around
sunrise and through the rest of the morning hours. But with the latest
timing trend, rain/chances for thunderstorms will be extended into
the early afternoon hours. A squall line is still expected to develop
along or just ahead of the front, with potential threat for damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and localized flooding.

Once the front moves further south and into the Florida Keys, expect
a rather robust cold air advection event to begin in the late afternoon
hours and into this evening as winds turn northerly and brisk in the
wake of the FROPA.

Latest model solutions came in a little colder, with Sunday morning
low temps over portions of Glades down into the upper 30s, and
around 50 for the metro areas. Afternoon highs on Sunday will
likely range the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Monday, morning lows
remain very similar to the previous night, while afternoon highs
will warm up a few degrees. In addition, wind chill values will be
very near advisory criteria both Sunday and Monday mornings,
mainly Glades County, along with potential for frost conditions.

Long Term (Tuesday-Friday)...temperatures will warm up a little
on Tuesday with backing winds to a more westerly flow ahead of
another, much weaker and dry cold front. This will allow for
afternoon highs to climb into the low 70s. But the warming trend
will be short-lived with guidance showing winds quickly veering
to the north again on Tuesday night behind the second FROPA. This
will bring temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday
morning, and warming up into the mid 60s to around 70 in the afternoon.
Only a little warmer temps expected Thursday, then by Friday a gradual
warming trend begins with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 70s.

The dry and cool nature of the air mass will basically keep the area
rain free through at least Friday afternoon when maybe some isolated
showers could return to South Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds of 20 knots are developing as a front moves
across the coastal waters. Showers and storms are expected to
accompany this front through this afternoon. Winds behind the front
will increase into the 20 to 25 knots range and becoming northerly.
A small craft advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters,
except Biscayne Bay, through Sunday morning. Seas of 8 to 11 feet
are expected in the Gulf waters behind the front. Winds will then
relax by late Sunday or early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The risk of rip currents will increase along the Gulf Coast
beaches later today after the passage of a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Behind the cold front on Saturday, much cooler and drier air will
move into South Florida. Relative humidity values on Sunday and
Monday will be in the 30-40 percent range across most of interior
and western portions of South FL. These conditions will be very
near critical fire weather levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will be from the southerly direction early this morning
before swinging to a westerly direction between 14Z and 16Z for
the east coast taf sites, and for KAPF taf site between 11Z and
13Z. The wind direction will then become northwest for all of the
taf sites after 18Z today and remain northwest into tonight. The
wind speeds will increase from 5 to 10 knots early this morning to
15G25 KTS between 13-16Z and remain at least speeds through the
afternoon hours.

Showers should start to affect the east coast taf sites after 08Z
with thunderstorms between 11Z and 15Z. For KAPF taf site, the
showers should start after 06Z with thunderstorms between 08Z and
11Z. The weather should dry out at KAPF taf site after 13Z and for
the east coast taf sites between 15Z and 18Z.

The ceilings will also remain in the MVFR conditions early this
morning before dropping down to MVFR conditions between 11Z and
16Z for the east coast taf sites. The ceilings will then go back
to VFR conditions for this afternoon for the east coast taf sites.
For KAPF taf site, the ceilings will be in the MVFR conditions
through 13Z this morning before going back to MVFR conditions for
rest of today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  45  66  46 /  90   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  52  66  48 /  90   0   0  10
Miami            74  50  67  48 /  90  10   0   0
Naples           70  47  64  45 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...17/AR
AVIATION...BNB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
441 AM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

FLZ063-091030-
Glades FL-
441 AM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 530
AM EST...

* At 440 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking developing strong thunderstorms along a line extending
  from near Lakeport to near Ortona. Movement was northeast at 45
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lakeport, Palmdale, Buckhead Ridge, Brighton Seminole Reservation
  and Indian Prairie Canal Mouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2720 8094 2719 8091 2718 8091 2717 8090
      2717 8088 2714 8087 2719 8084 2720 8082
      2687 8106 2683 8141 2712 8119 2712 8117
      2715 8117 2721 8108 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 220DEG 38KT 2703 8112 2686 8131

BAXTER