Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
419 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Friday)...a decaying frontal boundary extends
across Central Florida, while model data keeps depicting an
amplifying mid-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This trough will send a series of energy impulses across the
region, which will enhance shower activity and increase the
potential for thunderstorms starting late tonight and into
Thursday.

The trough will also push an associated front across the area on
Friday, supporting convection, gusty winds and periods of heavy
rainfall. Models are depicting enhanced thermodynamic parameters,
with moderate CAPE, increasing vertical wind shear and PWATS
around 1.5 inches. Best dynamics seem to remain over the northern
half of the state, however, can not rule out a strong storm or
two over South Florida Thursday and Friday.

All in all, expect a rather wet Thanksgiving Day with shower and
thunderstorm activity continuing through Friday afternoon.
Localized brief downpours are possible with the strongest cells.

Temperatures remain relatively warm with afternoon highs in the
low 80s across much of the area, morning lows in the mid-upper
60s away from the coast, and low 70s near the coastal metro areas.

Long Term (Friday night-Tuesday)...models show drier air filtering
into the region on Saturday in the wake of the trough/front
complex. Remnant moisture could still support some light showers,
but mainly in the morning hours.

Drier and cooler conditions will spread across the region through
early next week with morning lows on Sun and Mon dropping into
the low-mid 50s interior and low 60s near the coast. Afternoon
highs will struggle to reach 80 over much of the area.

&&

.MARINE...mainly benign weather conditions will prevail across the
coastal waters until the front passes later in the week, expect i
the vicinity of any heavy shower or thunderstorm that may form
Thursday or Friday. A frontal boundary moves across the area
Friday, with increasing winds and seas behind it during the
weekend likely bringing some hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Both seabreezes moving inland this afternoon with
speeds 8-12kts. Occasional SHRA possible after 20Z, mainly over
interior. Approaching system may allow additional SHRA to develop
after 02Z, so have included VCSH in most of the TAFs as activity
lifts from the south. Light SE winds after 02Z, with MVFR fog a
concern again after 06Z. Winds pick up out of the SSE after 14Z
10-15kts with potential for gustiness. SHRA coverage increasing
through the day tomorrow with approach of Gulf system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  81  67  81 /  40  60  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  72  82  70  82 /  30  50  60  40
Miami            72  82  70  82 /  30  50  60  40
Naples           68  81  68  79 /  10  80  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...17/AR
AVIATION...AM

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1051 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
230400-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1051 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Along the Palm Beaches...
...Isolated Thunderstorms Over the Gulf Waters Overnight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Palm
Beach County beaches.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening
and overnight over the Gulf waters of South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A developing low pressure system across the Gulf is expected to
approach and move across the Florida peninsula Thanksgiving Day and
Friday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected both days
with this system, with the potential for hazardous boating conditions
Friday and Saturday. Gusty west-southwest winds will also lead to a
moderate risk of rip currents along the Gulf beaches on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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