Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough
draped along the Mid-West with elongated upper level high
pressure stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the western
Atlantic. Surface analysis indicates a semi permanent surface
high near Bermuda, typical for this time of year. The feature
continues to produce light east and southeast flow across South
Florida. The mornings MFL RAOB sounding 1.70 inches of PWAT with
CAPE over 2000 J/KG. Although not entirely impressive values,
enough moisture and instability was present to generate a few sea
breeze driven showers and thunderstorm over the interior this
afternoon, mainly near the Lake Okeechobee region. The HRRR and
Hi-Res WRF models, as with previous days, show activity spreading
towards Collier and mainland Monroe counties by the early evening.
The main threats with todays storms will likely be lightning,
brief heavy rain, and isolated winds up to 40 mph. After sundown
and the loss of diurnal heating, thunderstorms should decrease in
coverage and intensity. The easterly flow pattern will bring a
slight chance of showers to the east coast metro late tonight, as
they drift westward from the Atlantic. Synoptically, little
changes on Sunday. There may be slightly higher coverage of sea
breeze driven afternoon thunderstorms, especially in the interior,
with PWATs increasing to near 2 inches. Maximum temperatures will
hover in the upper 80s along the east coast region and low 90s
elsewhere.

Monday through Friday: A weakening ridge of the eastern CONUS will
allow for waves of deeper moisture to return from the southeast.
Stagnant surface high pressure near Bermuda will maintain east
southeast flow in the lower levels through the whole week. This
usually translates to night and early morning showers along the
east coast metro region, transitioning to sea breeze driven
showers/thunderstorms over the interior and Gulf coast during the
afternoons. Maximum temperatures will have little variation with
upper 80s along the east coast metro to low 90s elsewhere, normal
for early July.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good boating conditions are expected
across South Florida into early next week under light east-
southeasterly flow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the open waters, particularly in the overnight and
morning hours, with more scattered coverage along the Gulf coast
in the late afternoons and evenings. Locally erratic winds along
with lightning will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection has pretty much gone as forecast, with development
occurring in the interior. This trend is forecast to continue,
and looks to remain mostly inland from KAPF as well. Have removed
most mention of weather from TAFs as there is too much
uncertainty, except a chance of showers and KPAF after 00z.
Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period, except brief IFR under
heavy showers possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  90 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
Miami            79  90  79  91 /  20  30  20  30
Naples           76  91  75  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1111 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1111 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

...Thunderstorms possible across the Interior and Gulf Coast Today...
...Waterspouts possible Over the Atlantic Waters Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across the interior and portions of the Gulf Coast.
The primary threat will be lightning and brief gusty wind.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible today over the local Atlantic
waters.

Wind: Thunderstorms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph, especially
over northwestern sections of South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Mainly afternoon thunderstorms are possible each day, especially
over interior sections of South Florida. The primary threat will be
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

FLZ066-067-070-071-012200-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for east central Collier...western Broward and
southwestern Palm Beach Counties Until 600 PM EDT...

* At 515 PM EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists detected a
  Line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles
  east of Holey Land Wildlife Refuge to 10 miles north of
  Dade-Collier Training Airport...and moving southwest at 10 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
  gusty winds  of 45 TO 55 mph.  Lightning is the number one weather
  related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
  protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and
  blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
  building until the storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami
  Canal, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge, Miccosukee Indian Reservation,
  Miccosukee Service Plaza, Big Cypress National Preserve and West
  Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

LAT...LON 2646 8081 2598 8106 2598 8067 2645 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 052DEG 7KT 2643 8059 2600 8085

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

FLZ069-070-012245-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for southwestern Collier County Until 645 PM
EDT...

* At 602 PM EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists detected a
  strong thunderstorm near Carnestown, or 7 miles northwest of
  Everglades City, moving northwest at 10 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
  gusty winds  of 45 TO 55 mph.  Lightning is the number one weather
  related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
  protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and
  blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
  building until the storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  Marco Island, Everglades City, Carnestown, Cape Romano, Copeland,
  Royal Palm Hammock, South Blocks Golde, Fakahatchee Strand State
  Preserve, Picayune Strand State Forest, Port Of The Island,
  Goodland, Key Marco and Cape Romano Aquatic Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

LAT...LON 2594 8131 2584 8141 2582 8172 2601 8165
      2612 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 120DEG 9KT 2594 8146

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
613 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

FLZ070-012300-
Inland Collier County FL-
613 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for southeastern Collier County Until 700 PM
EDT...

* At 613 PM EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists detected a
  cluster of strong thunderstorms near Big Cypress National
  Preserve, or 23 miles northeast of Chokoloskee, moving northwest
  at 5 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
  gusty winds  of 45 TO 55 mph.  Lightning is the number one weather
  related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
  protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and
  blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
  building until the storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  Big Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and other local media for further
details or updates.

&&

LAT...LON 2618 8115 2601 8087 2593 8087 2582 8093
      2592 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 115DEG 6KT 2595 8099

BAXTER