Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
337 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: A little stronger southeasterly flow
today has already pushed a more diffuse Atlantic seabreeze well
inland this afternoon with scattered convection accompanying it.
While slower to develop, the Gulf breeze has also managed to make
it inland to the US41/I75 corridor.

SAL layer is evident on satellite this afternoon across the region
and NW Caribbean. This has been keeping convective coverage down
so far, though expect a little bit of an upswing with the
seabreeze merger near the Gulf coast later this afternoon. Other
outflow boundary collisions will keep activity going into the late
evening hours over the interior and Gulf coast.

With the stronger SE flow and adequate low level moisture,
Atlantic showers will make a comeback this evening and overnight.
This activity will brush the east coast occasionally with the
remainder of the region staying dry.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY: Weather for the long
holiday weekend will be dominated by the western Atlantic ridge,
both at the surface and aloft, with its axis extending across the
Florida peninsula. East-southeast flow prevails through the period,
with a more dominant Atlantic seabreeze pushing quickly across the
southern peninsula each afternoon.

Remnant drier air from the aforementioned SAL layer may continue to
suppress convection again on Saturday, with coverage closer to climo
Sunday through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be focused
over the interior and Gulf Coast during the afternoon/evening, with
nighttime and morning isolated to widely scattered showers/storms
over the Atlantic waters occasionally reaching into portions of the
east coast. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with
highs in the 90s for most areas and lows generally in the 70s.

REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK: The western Atlantic ridge axis remains to
our north through the remainder of next week, resulting in a fairly
typical summertime easterly flow pattern across the region. The sea
breezes will develop during the afternoon hours, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms favored over the interior and Gulf Coast
as the Atlantic seabreeze moves inland quicker. Nighttime/early
morning activity will favor over the Atlantic waters and east coast.
With a slight weakening in the upper-level ridging, daytime activity
may also be prevalent along the east coast as well. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal during the long term period.

&&

.MARINE...Generally good boating conditions are expected across
South Florida into early next week under light east-southeasterly
flow and seas generally 2 feet or less.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the open waters
particularly in the overnight and morning hours, with more scattered
coverage along the Gulf coast in the late afternoon and evening as
activity pushes off the mainland. Locally erratic winds along with
lightning will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection is forecast for this afternoon, mainly
well west of the Atlantic coast TAF sites, other than PBI. The
easterly flow across the area is forecast to keep the convection
in the interior and over the Gulf coast through the early evening
hours. While there is a slight chance for convection over the
metro area, the certainty is too low for any mention at this time.
KAPF will see increasing chances of VCTS and SHRA through the
late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  90  78  90 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           76  92  76  92 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1042 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010245-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1042 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

...Chance of Thunderstorms this Afternoon...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible over interior and western
sections of South Florida by this afternoon. While primary threat is
lightning, gusty wind is also possible in the stronger
thunderstorms.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible, especially this morning, on
Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms may produce wind gusts to around 50
mph, especially over northwestern sections of South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon thunderstorms are possible
each day, especially over interior sections of South Florida. The
primary threat will be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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