Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
355 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, COLLIER,
HENDRY, PALM BEACH, AND BROWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 11PM...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...The main concern for the remainder of
today and tonight continues to be for strong to severe storms across
all of South Florida. Outside of any convective development, it will
remain a hot and breezy day with temperatures currently peaking in
the low-mid 90s and southwest winds gusting to near 30 mph.

A warm, moist and unstable atmosphere is in place across South
Florida this afternoon with a few showers and storms already
developing across the region. Southwesterly flow is picking up to 30-
40kts between 4-9kft, with 0-1km helicities a respectable 100
m2/s2. Further north, severe weather is already ongoing across
Central and North Florida with widespread activity.

Severe storm potential looks to come in two phases. The first
will be this afternoon primarily along the east coast, where the
seabreeze has developed and pushed inland across Miami-Dade,
Broward and a portion of the Palm Beach barrier island. Scattered
showers and storms will continue to develop across the region for
the remainder of the afternoon, focusing along the Palm Beach and
Broward metro early evening. With a few models showing low level
helicities increasing to 200-300 m2/s2, along with the low level
jet picking up, the concern remains for strong wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes. Given the instability in place, hail also will
be a concern especially with storm collisions.

Second wave will be this evening through overnight across all of
the region as the pre-frontal squall line over the eastern Gulf
and west Florida approaches the region. Models have sped up the
timing of this line considerably, which is consistent with current
radar trends. The line may weaken as it approaches and moves
further away from its parent front/system, but earlier arrival may
mean more daytime instability is available. Convective activity
looks to continue through the overnight primarily north of a
Everglades City to Boca Raton line. The main threat with overnight
activity will be for strong winds, but isolated tornadoes may
remain a concern with boundary collisions.

Localized heavy downpours can not be ruled out with any activity,
but due to the ongoing dry conditions and quick storm movement, no
significant flooding is expected.

THURSDAY...Showers and storms will continue through the day on
Thursday as the front slowly moves through the area. The best
dynamics will be lifting off to the northeast with the main upper
level trough, though low level winds will continue around 40kts. The
threat for significant severe weather will rapidly diminish during
the morning hours, though a few gusty storms will remain possible.
Activity will diminish from NW to SE into the afternoon as the
front pushes further south.

EXTENDED MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...Frontal boundary will wash out
across the far southern peninsula by Friday, with the deeper
moisture finally shunted south of the region into Saturday behind a
secondary weak mid level trough passage. High pressure will build in
both at the surface and aloft, leading to a more suppressed
atmosphere and light winds. A typical South Florida summertime
pattern will be in place with the seabreezes developing and moving
inland each afternoon. A few showers and storms will likely develop
along the sea breeze as it moves in, with the best coverage in the
afternoons and early evening with the seabreeze collision over the
interior. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the
upper 80s and low 90s.

NEXT WEEK...Surface high will move east into the western Atlantic
early next week, with low level flow becoming more easterly across
the region. While both seabreezes will still be able to develop and
move inland, the east coast seabreeze will be more dominant, with
the best afternoon shower/storm chances over the interior and Gulf
coast and the east coast likely staying dry.

&&

.MARINE...Strong and gusty south-southwesterly winds will continue
into early Thursday ahead of the cold front currently moving through
the Florida peninsula. Speeds will continue around 20kts, with gusts
up to 30 knots possible outside of any convection. Seas look to peak
around 6-7ft in the offshore Gulf overnight with similar heights in
the Gulf stream by early Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remain in
effect for all of the local waters.

Numerous showers and storms are expected from late this afternoon
into this evening as the front pushes further south, with the
potential for a few strong to severe storms. Frequent lightning,
gusts over 50kts, and isolated waterspouts may accompany the
strongest storms.

The front will wash out across the region late Thursday, with winds
becoming west-southwest around 15 knots. Winds will become light and
variable into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend, with the afternoon
seabreezes developing each afternoon. Winds may reach 10-15kts with
the seabreezes near the coast during the afternoon. Seas diminish to
2ft or less by Saturday. A few storms may affect the intracoastal in
the early afternoon, with the best chances generally over interior
waterways and Lake Okeechobee in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...Latest model guidance continue to show convection
beginning to initiate along the east coast ahead of the upper
trough this afternoon around 21Z. Expect showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds, possible hail and frequent lightning. At this
time, tempo groups are included for this afternoon convection.
Another round of TSRA will move with the main front into the
evening hours deteriorating conditions into midnight along the
east coast metro. Activity will transition to showers behind the
front into Thursday.

&&

CLIMATE...The east coast metro areas will be getting close to the
record highs for today which are:

Cities    Highs So Far   Record Highs
MIA           91           94 - 2013
FLL           91           94 - 1951
PBI           91           96 - 1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  90  70  89 /  70  70  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  76  90 /  70  70  20  30
Miami            76  88  76  92 /  60  70  20  40
Naples           78  85  71  88 /  80  70  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...67/MT

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
250600-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
150 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF COAST BEACHES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High risk of rip currents on Gulf coast
beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents Atlantic coast
beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and tonight. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe with
damaging winds and large hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected.

Tornadoes: A tornado cant be ruled out this afternoon and tonight,
especially over northern sections of South Florida.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible on South Florida waters.

Wind: Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph are possible this afternoon and tonight, especially
over northern sections of South Florida. In addition, gusty southerly
winds of 20 to 30 knots will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Waves: There is a slight risk for high seas around 7 feet in the
offshore Gulf waters.

Hail: Isolated severe thunderstorms may produce hail to the size of
quarters this afternoon and tonight across South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A small craft advisory for winds of 20 to 25 knots is in effect for
Atlantic waters through Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are likely Thursday, especially early in the day. The
primary hazard will be cloud to ground lightning, but gusty winds
will accompany the stronger thunderstorms. Friday through early next
week, a few thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, mainly over
interior South Florida.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Individual spotters are encouraged
to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National Weather
Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
510 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ063-066-242230-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
510 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for
northwestern Hendry and Glades Counties Until 630 PM EDT...

* At 509 PM EDT...Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
  thunderstorms extending from Lake Placid to Fort Myers, moving
  east AT 30 mph. Other strong thunderstorms were located near Moore
  Haven and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. These
  winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around
  unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
  storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  Labelle, Moore Haven, Lakeport, Buckhead Ridge, Montura, Palmdale,
  Felda, Port La Belle, Brighton Seminole Reservation, Devils Garden,
  Ortona, Muse, Indian Prairie Canal Mouth, Lake Hicpochee and Keri.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms...and may
lead to street flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
southern Florida.

LAT...LON 2721 8094 2714 8087 2698 8093 2695 8100
      2689 8100 2688 8097 2652 8115 2652 8156
      2703 8156 2703 8127 2712 8127 2712 8117
      2721 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 270DEG 27KT 2716 8156 2661 8184

KScharf

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
536 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ066-069-070-242230-
Coastal Collier County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
536 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for western
Collier and central Hendry Counties Until 630 PM EDT...

* At 535 PM EDT...Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
  thunderstorms extending from Lehigh Acres to Bonita Springs to 39
  miles southwest of Cape Romano, moving east at 30 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. These
  winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around
  unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
  storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  Naples, Marco Island, Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, Immokalee,
  Belle Meade, Cape Romano, Orangetree, East Naples, Golden Gate,
  Lely Resort, Big Corkscrew Island, Vineyards, Royal Palm Hammock,
  Naples Park, Marco Island Airport, Naples Manor, West Toll Gate On
  Alligator Alley, North Naples and Pelican Bay.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
southern and southwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 2633 8186 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8156
      2651 8156 2652 8115 2607 8146 2580 8158
      2582 8169 2600 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 277DEG 26KT 2652 8161 2634 8171 2615 8200 2557
8222

KScharf