Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Miami, FL

813 
WHUS72 KMFL 250810
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017


AMZ670-671-251615-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.171025T1500Z-171026T0000Z/
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-
410 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ656-676-251615-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.171025T1200Z-171026T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
410 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

274 
WHUS72 KMFL 251508
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1108 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

GMZ656-251615-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
1108 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

AMZ610-650-651-252315-
/O.EXA.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
1108 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ676-252000-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171025T2000Z/
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1108 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ670-671-252315-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-
1108 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

839 
WHUS72 KMFL 251946
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

GMZ676-252100-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171025T2000Z/
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
346 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

$$

AMZ610-252100-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
346 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE WIND HAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND 
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY 
EVENING HOURS.

$$

AMZ650-651-670-671-260000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-
346 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

322 
WHUS72 KMFL 252252
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
652 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

AMZ650-651-670-671-260000-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-171026T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-
652 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.


$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
156 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Boundary collision will continue to enhance scattered showers
and thunderstorms along the east coast terminals this afternoon.
Expect lower vis with brief gusty winds as thunderstorm activity
moves over the terminals. Frontal passage will move across the
area enhancing more convection over the sites this afternoon.
Winds will shift more northerly this evening into Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1106 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Cold front remains on track which will move through South Florida
late tonight/early Wednesday morning, with a round of showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase into the afternoon hours. Most
of the early morning showers concentrated over the west coast will
transition to the east coast metro areas as the morning progresses.
Main forecast remains on track with current guidance with most of
the activity gradually increasing into the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Southerly flow will prevail over most of the Tafs sites today
with slightly more sw towards APF as scattered shra are starting
to develop. VCSH increasing after 15Z along the east coast with
any a chance of a few thunderstorms until 00Z. VCSH will continue
over APF 12Z and 15Z, then SHRA with VCTS until 00Z. The vis and
ceilings will be VFR early this morning for most of the east
coast, but should fall briefly down into MVFR conditions with the
scattered SHRA activity near the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

Showers and a Few Thunderstorms Today and Tonight...
First Cold Front of the Season Moves Through Late Tonight...

DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today through Thursday): large and deep longwave
trough over the eastern half of North America will be the driving
force behind a cold front which will move through South Florida
late tonight/early Wednesday morning, bringing the first shot of
cooler and drier air of the season to our region. Before that
happens, however, plenty of deep moisture will remain in place as
the cold front currently across North Florida slowly moves down
the peninsula today. Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms
will affect South Florida through tonight, with one pre-frontal
round of precipitation this morning affecting primarily Gulf
coast/SW Florida as well as coastal sections of SE Florida, then
transitioning to the main area of showers and thunderstorms with
the actual front this afternoon and tonight, aided by diurnal
heating and sea breeze convergence.

The front will move rather slowly today as the main piece of energy
rotating around the deep eastern North American trough will not
push into the Southeast U.S. until late tonight. This delay in the
arrival of the mid/upper trough and associated dynamics/forcing,
along with modest forecast CAPE values in the 1500-1800 j/kg range
this afternoon during peak heating, should result in thunderstorms
ahead of the front to be mainly below strong levels. Some gusty
winds to 30-40 mph may accompany the most vigorous convection,
with the main threat being locally heavy rainfall and flooding as
the band of moisture moves slowly through the area ahead of the
front. By the time the upper dynamics/forcing arrive, the front
will be pushing through the area with cooler low level air
overspreading the area by daybreak Wednesday. A few strong
thunderstorms could set up over the Atlantic waters early
Wednesday right ahead of the front, but should not affect land
areas before the frontal passage. At this point we can say with
reasonably high confidence that the frontal passage will
essentially end the wet season, with the last day being today.

Skies will be slow to clear behind the front on Wednesday even as
cooler and drier air rushes in, as initial push will be shallow with
the 850 mb and 700 mb troughs lagging behind. This sets up an overrunning
pattern with light precipitation lingering for 4-8 hours after the
frontal passage. Due to the clouds and cold air advection (haven't
used that term in a discussion in quite a while), temperatures
will likely remain steady or even fall a few degrees during the
first part of the day and not recover until afternoon (maybe even
late afternoon SE areas). Therefore, high temperatures will likely
be several degrees cooler than MOS as it typically does not handle
cold air advection/overrunning patterns in South Florida too well
from a temperature perspective. Wednesday will feel quite a bit
cooler for South Floridians after months of heat and high humidity.
Highs will probably end up in the 70s all areas, but not after
much of the day struggling to reach 70 degrees.

Coolest period will be Wednesday night/Thursday morning as skies
clear and north winds continue to filter down cool air. Most areas
away from the immediate coasts will dip into the 50s, with upper 40s
in the normally colder areas west of Lake Okeechobee and interior
Collier County. Immediate east coast and urban cores, particularly
MIA and FLL, may stay in the 60-62F range. These temperatures would
be the coolest in South Florida since April 8th.

Thursday will be a mostly sunny and mild day with highs in the upper
70s. Even though winds will become NE during the day, moisture
recovery will be slow and humidity levels will remain low.

Long term (Friday through Monday): Temperatures moderate on Friday
as winds become E, but still mostly below late October norms for
lows with readings mainly in the 50s and 60s, except near 70 along
the east coast. A few showers return to the forecast, but Friday
will be the last mostly dry day before deep tropical moisture surges
back into South Florida Friday night and Saturday from the western
Caribbean in association with an area of low pressure which as of
this time has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5
days. This northward transport of deep moisture will be aided by
another deep and strong mid/upper level trough over the eastern
U.S. which will send another cold front into the Gulf of Mexico
and approach Florida late this upcoming weekend.

Models have struggled somewhat over the past couple of days with
respect to the evolution and timing of the northward movement of the
western Caribbean low, but appear to be converging towards a general
solution of an elongated south/north trough across the Straits of
Florida, eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula on Saturday,
then shifting east of the area on Sunday as the main low in the
vicinity of Cuba and the western Bahamas gets driven east by the
deep mid-latitude trough and frontal system. This system bears watch
as it remains to our south this week and gradually moves north, but
right now the main potential impact to South Florida as this early
stage appears to be heavy rainfall and possible flooding Saturday
and early Sunday. The next cold front then is progged by the
majority of the available guidance to sweep through on Sunday, which
would usher in another shot of cool air and below normal
temperatures to South Florida to end the weekend and begin next
week.

MARINE...
Decent marine conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms
most of today, but deteriorating tonight as the cold front moves
through the local waters and thunderstorms affect mainly the
Atlantic waters late tonight. Seas are expected to build to 8 feet
over the outer Gulf of Mexico waters on Wednesday behind the
front, and to 7 feet in the Gulf Stream off the east coast. Winds
will gust to 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday. These conditions will
likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory with this afternoon's
forecast package. Wind and seas will gradually subside on
Thursday and Friday but still remain at moderate levels.
Conditions again deteriorate this weekend as showers/thunderstorms
spread across all waters Saturday and early Sunday, along with
increasing wind and seas by Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
The season's first surge of cooler and drier air will drop
relative humidity values into the 35 to 40 percent range western
areas on Wednesday and area-wide on Thursday. For the time being
it looks like marginal red flag conditions at best, without
considering the ERC values which in all likelihood will remain
below critical levels. Humidity levels recover Friday through
Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 127 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

AVIATION...
The winds will be south/southeast around 5 to 10 knots today over
most of the taf sites. The only exception to this is at KAPF taf
site where the winds will become southwest this afternoon.
The weather should remain dry over the east coast taf sties
through early this morning, before VCSH conditions between 12Z and
17Z. After 17Z today, the weather will be dominated by showers
with any a chance of a few thunderstorms until 00Z. Therefore,
VCSH between 12Z and 17Z, then SHRA with VCTS until 00Z. KAPF taf
site will have VCSH until 12Z then SHRA with VCTS until 17Z, then
VCSH for the afternoon hours. The vis and ceilings will in the VFR
conditions early this morning, but should fall down into MVFR
conditions after 12Z today due to the showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION...54/BNB
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  76  55  76 /  70  40   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  74  59  78 /  70  40  10   0
Miami            69  74  60  78 /  70  40  10   0
Naples           63  75  56  76 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...67/MT

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1027 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
250230-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1027 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are possible today into this
evening over South Florida. The primary impacts from the
thunderstorms will be lighting strikes and heavy rainfall.

Flooding: Minor flooding is possible in low lying and poorly drained
areas from the heavy rainfall associated with the thunderstorms.

Rip currents: There is a slight risk of rip currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
morning over the Atlantic waters, and then again over all of South
Florida on Saturday. The primary impacts will be lightning strikes
and heavy rainfall.

Marine conditions will deteriorate late tonight into Wednesday over
both the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters, with seas up to 8 feet
in the Gulf waters and 7 feet over the Gulf Stream. Hazardous seas
will continue into Thursday.

The risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches will increase by end
of the week into early this weekend before decreasing early next
week. The threat of rip currents will increase along the west coast
beaches of South Florida late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.