Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Miami, FL

966 
WHUS72 KMFL 311606
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1206 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017


GMZ656-657-676-010000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1206 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

907 
WHUS72 KMFL 311646
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1246 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

AMZ610-010100-
/O.EXB.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.170731T1700Z-170801T0600Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
1246 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ656-657-676-010000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1246 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

153 
WHUS72 KMFL 312017
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

AMZ650-670-011100-
/O.EXB.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.170801T0000Z-170801T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
417 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ656-657-676-010000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
417 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ610-010600-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0600Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
417 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS AROUND 0 FOOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

703 
WHUS72 KMFL 010538
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

AMZ610-010900-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0900Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ650-670-011400-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

930 
WHUS72 KMFL 010906
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
506 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

AMZ610-011015-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T0900Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
506 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.

$$

AMZ650-670-011400-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-170801T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
506 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. 
  SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
149 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.AVIATION...
Low pressure over the northeast Gulf sinking southeast toward the
region will bring numerous SHRA/TSRA over the area, with activity
increasing after 12Z through the end of the period. Variable and
gusty winds with IFR conditions will accompany thunderstorms, with
brief periods of LIFR possible. The most widespread thunderstorm
activity appears likely to be in the 15Z to 00Z period, and later
TAF products/amendments may introduce IFR/LIFR conditions as
specific timing details become more apparent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 846 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017/

UPDATE...
Active convection continues on radar this evening. Several storms
have pushed from west to east across the southern portion of the
peninsula of Florida this evening with gusty wind, lightning, and
heavy rain. A waterspout was reported by the Naples Airport tower
earlier this evening but it dissipated before reaching land. The
potential for rotating storms capable of producing short-lived
weak waterspouts/funnel clouds/tornadoes and strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out through the overnight. For the evening update,
went ahead and raised PoPs just slightly. Model guidance has not
been handling the trends in coverage very well and while the
diurnal minimum may help lessen the amount of convection, it is
still quite active and will likely remain so through a good
portion of the night. Updated zones will be sent shortly. Have a
great Sunday evening!

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017/

Flood threat from excessive rainfall emerging for Monday...
High Risk of Rip Currents along the Collier beaches Monday...

DISCUSSION...
South Florida finds itself with quite an unsettled pattern this
Sunday afternoon. A few concerns are presenting themselves with
this forecast cycle including the potential of strong
thunderstorms, an emerging threat of flooding from excessive
rainfall, and the non-zero threat of tornadic activity. The
frontal boundary continues to sag over north central portions of
Florida with convection stretching from the Interstate 4 corridor
southward into South Florida. The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring activity related to the front in the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico for potential tropical development. At this point, we
want to emphasize that the primary threat for South Florida with
this event (whether it is considered tropical or not) is flooding
from excessive rainfall.

One of the things that makes this forecast challenging is the
fluid nature of the features that will affect area weather on
Monday. A feature that guidance has been building over the region
on Monday afternoon is a healthy low level jet, which the 12z GFS
features right over the southern Lake Okeechobee region. The 12z
ECMWF is not resolving such a strong jet, 10-15 kts versus the
GFS' 30-35 kts. This also fits the conceptual model with any weak
tropical or hybrid low center being to the left (in this case
northwest) of this low level jet. This setup is not a high
confidence feature under any stretch of the imagination, but the
threat is non-zero and needs to be monitored. Adding in lake and
sea breeze boundaries, you just cannot rule out a threat of
tornadoes/waterspouts/funnel clouds and strong wind gusts across
portions of South Florida, particularly Palm Beach County.

Moving back to the rainfall threat, the last few runs have been
showing ample amounts of moisture and instability to cause a
concern for fast accumulations of several inches of rain
practically anywhere in South Florida. An area of focus is along
the Gulf coast where the coastal influences combined with ample
moisture could leave many inches of rain over areas that saw 10+
inches of rain earlier in the season. The next forecast cycle will
include another assessment of the need for a Flood Watch of some
sort. Right now, the areas of highest risk for excessive rainfall
are portions of Southwest Florida along the Gulf coast and
northern portions of the forecast area around Lake Okeechobee.

The front will meander over the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Guidance begins to depict the boundary retreating northward
Thursday with some drier air entering across the region. High
pressure will begin to build back but with plenty of moisture in
the area. An easterly wave of moisture next weekend could once
again provide an additional chance of clouds and rain for South
Florida late in the extended.

MARINE...
Conditions for mariners in the Gulf will deteriorate over the next
day or so as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage. Winds
will pick up out of the southwest with SCEC necessary. If
conditions continue to deteriorate, they could near Advisory
criteria. Winds and seas will improve later in the week as the
frontal boundary retreats north away from the waters.

BEACH FORECAST...
Southwesterly flow with create a moderate risk of rip currents
today building into a high risk of rip currents for Monday along
the Gulf beaches of Collier County. A rip current statement has
been issued for Monday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  88  76  91  76 /  80  50  70  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  89  78 /  80  50  60  10
Miami            89  76  90  78 /  80  50  60  10
Naples           86  77  88  78 /  90  80  80  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...02/RAG
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...22/KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
346 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
310800-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
346 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...PERIODS OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NAPLES COAST...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALSO WITH HEAVIEST STORMS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
through tonight over all of South Florida and the adjacent waters.
The most numerous thunderstorms are expected near and north of
Alligator Alley. Frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds, and
heavy rain are the primary threats.

Flooding: Thunderstorms may produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall, which may cause flooding of roadways and areas of poor
drainage.

Wind: Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 40 to 45 mph.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Naples beaches for the rest of today with the risk increasing by
Monday. Heed the advise of the beach patrol.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Periods of rain and thunderstorms are forecast over South Florida
Monday and Tuesday. Locally excessive rainfall is possible, with
the potential for flooding of roads and poor drainage areas. There
is a slight threat a few locations may receive enough flooding to
temporarily close roadways. Frequent lightning will also be a threat.

Secondary concerns for Monday include strong gusty winds and isolated
tornadoes.

From Wednesday to Saturday, Daytime and evening thunderstorms will be
possible over South Florida, with nighttime thunderstorms over the
adjacent waters. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the primary
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters
are encouraged to report flooding and any wind damage to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE HAVERHILL         26.68N  80.10W
07/30/2017  M51 MPH          PALM BEACH         FL   ASOS

            A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 51 MPH 44 KNOTS WAS
            RECORDED AT THE ASOS STATION KPBI LOCATED AT PALM BEACH
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 1254 PM EDT.

0514 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S MARCO ISLAND        25.93N  81.73W
07/30/2017  M48 MPH          GMZ656             FL   MESONET

            A MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 42 KNOTS... 48
            MPH... WAS RECORDED AT MARCO ISLAND MARRIOT BEACH
            RESORT... MESONET SITE MRCSL... AT 514 PM. ANEMOMETER IS
            ELEVATED.

0624 PM     WATER SPOUT      3 W NAPLES              26.14N  81.85W
07/30/2017                   GMZ656             FL   AIRPLANE PILOT

            AN AIRPLANE PILOT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT WEST OF NAPLES
            AT 624PM. LOCATION ESTIMATED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR.

0631 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE NAPLES            26.15N  81.78W
07/30/2017  M45 MPH          COLLIER            FL   ASOS

            NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT RECORDED A THUNDERSTORM WIND
            GUST OF 45 MPH... 39 KNOTS... AT 631 PM

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S PRINCETON           25.49N  80.38W
07/30/2017  M46 MPH          MIAMI-DADE         FL   AWOS

            HOMESTEAD AIR RESERVE BASE... KHST... RECORDED A
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 46 MPH... 40 KNOTS... AT 641
            PM

0741 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NE PORT EVERGLADES    26.11N  80.11W
07/30/2017  M40 MPH          BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            FT. LAUDERDALE FIRE STATION 49 REPORTED 40 MPH TSTM WND
            GST

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700295 MFL1700296 MFL1700297 MFL1700298 MFL1700299
MFL1700300

KSCHARF