Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
415 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor/Infrared Satellite trends along with 00Z
upper air analysis places an upper level low over Southwest
Missouri earLy this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show
showers and a few thunderstorms over areas along and west of the
Mississippi River and another area over Northeast Texas and
Southwest Arkansas. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the 70s across most locations.

Short term models are in relatively decent agreement this morning
with the upper level low over Southwest Missouri slowly moving
east today and gradually becoming absorbed into a longwave upper
level trough axis by Thursday and Thursday night. These synoptic
features combined with a warm, moist and unstable tropical
airmass will result in continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms across much of the Mid-South Today through Thursday
night. Potential will exist for a few strong thunderstorms and
perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm. Damaging winds will be
the primary severe weather threat if any thunderstorms can reach
severe limits. High low level moisture and precipitable water
values above 2 inches will be conducive for heavy rainfall with
the convective activity. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
gradually diminish into Friday as shortwave ridging temporarily
builds in across the Mid-South.

Long term models suggest an unsettled pattern will persist across
the Mid-South for the upcoming weekend into early next week as
persistent northwest upper level flow remains entrenched across
the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys with an upper level ridge
centered over the Rockies. This will result in chances for showers
and thunderstorms each day with a potential for better coverage
occurring during peak daytime heating. Temperatures will average
slightly below normal to near normal for July.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFs

An upper level disturbance over SW MO will very slowly move east
over the next 24 hours. A few lingering SHRAs expected overnight.
Expect stratus to develop around sunrise lifting by 15z or 16z
followed by another round of SHRAs/TSRAs into the early afternoon.
SHRA and TSRA threat will continue through the end of the period
with the upper trough axis still to the west, though timing is
difficult this far out. Light south winds overnight become SW on
Wednesday with some gusts above 15 kts at KMEM and KJBR in the
afternoon.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
419 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
419 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm is possible across the Mid-South today into this
evening. Damaging winds is the primary threat if any
thunderstorms can reach severe limits. Heavy rainfall is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
453 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ050-052-090-051030-
Hardeman TN-Madison TN-Haywood TN-
453 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Western Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 452 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing winds to 45 mph
was located along a line extending from Holly Grove to near
Dancyville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain will occur with this line of thunderstorms.

People in northwestern Hardeman...western Madison and southeastern
Haywood Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3539 8887 3540 8933 3570 8921 3571 8912
      3567 8902 3572 8896 3574 8873
TIME...MOT...LOC 0952Z 267DEG 27KT 3564 8916 3541 8924

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
539 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ020-021-052-054-051115-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Madison TN-Gibson TN-
539 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 538 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds TO 50 mph was
located 7 miles east of Fairview, or 10 miles northeast of Jackson,
moving east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Carroll...northwestern Henderson...
northeastern Madison and southeastern Gibson Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3567 8884 3583 8884 3594 8849 3571 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 249DEG 26KT 3576 8872