Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures in the 70s. A large area of
thunderstorms is currently moving slowly south across central
Missouri. This area of thunderstorms will continue to move toward
the forecast area and reach far northern sections later this
morning. The thunderstorms should weaken some as they arrive into
the forecast area but then redevelop later in the day as daytime
heating helps to destabilize the atmosphere. Some of these
thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds being the
main threat. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with more
clouds and rain in the area as highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

What thunderstorms develop later today should be moving out of the
forecast area by this evening leaving with a few isolated
thunderstorms possible tonight. Temperatures will remain quite
warm with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s. Friday
morning could see a repeat of today as another thunderstorm
complex may develop overnight over northern Missouri and track
south. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop again on
Friday with damaging winds as the main threat. Temperatures will
remain close to seasonal levels with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Friday night may see a few scattered evening
thunderstorms otherwise it should be dry with continue warm
temperatures.

The weather for much of the weekend should remain pretty typical
for this time of year with some scattered thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front will
approach the forecast area from the north by Sunday night and move
into the region by Monday morning. This will mean a better chance
of thunderstorms Sunday night over the northern half of the
forecast area. The cold front will move through the forecast area
on Monday with more thunderstorms expected.

The cold front will be south of the region by Monday night with
high pressure building into the forecast area. This will result in
a period of dry weather for Monday night through Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

An outflow boundary will move across the area triggering SHRAs
and TSRAs across the Mid-South. Given the rapid movement of the
boundary have moved up the timing of the TEMPO groups at KJBR,
KMKL and KMEM. Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of SHRAs and
TSRAs. Winds will generally be SW at 6-8 kts outside of TSRAs.
Expect convection to end by sunset with light winds and VFR
conditions tonight. Could be some light fog late tonight but not
confident to add at this time.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today mainly south
of a line from Jonesboro, Arkansas to Camden, Tennessee. The main
threat from these thunderstorms will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday west of
a line from Caruthersville, Missouri to Brownsville, Tennessee to
Charleston, Mississippi. The main threat from these thunderstorms
will be damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

TNZ004-022-151445-
Benton TN-Henry TN-
921 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR...

North central Benton County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Henry County in western Tennessee...

At 921 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Paris Landing State
Park, moving east at 25 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in north central Benton and northeastern Henry Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3630 8826 3644 8829 3650 8818 3650 8806
      3647 8805 3644 8806 3640 8802 3637 8800
      3635 8798 3632 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 265DEG 23KT 3639 8815

JOHNSON