Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A complex forecast exists today with rain chances driven primarily
by mesoscale features which the models are struggling to handle. A
decaying MCS early this morning continues to push into the Mid
South. This system has sent a convective boundary quickly eastward
with elevated convection continuing to diminish. This boundary
should lay out somewhere across southeast counties of the forecast
area this afternoon and should become a focus for convective
redevelopment this afternoon. Plan to carry chance pops this
morning areawide as the MCS decays. Higher pops will be introduced
across portions of northeast Mississippi this afternoon where the
greatest potential will exist for redevelopment in association
with the outflow boundary. Temperatures should remain slightly
below seasonal averages with highs in the middle to upper 80s
along with continued high humidity.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across
southern sections of the forecast area tonight as any residual
convection from the afternoon hours is slow to wane. Kept the
highest pops south, diminishing to slight chances further north.
Lows will remain in the 70s overnight areawide.

Northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the Mid South for the
end of the weekend through the first part of next week. A series
of upper level disturbances should move through the flow and
trigger episodes of showers and thunderstorms through the period.
Timing each specific disturbance remains difficult therefore plan
to carry chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
Near normal temperatures can be expected with highs in the lower
90s with lows in the 70s with continued humid conditions.

A stronger disturbance will move through the flow aloft by
Wednesday through Thursday with the greatest forcing aloft
remaining north of the Mid South. There may be an uptick in
convective coverage, especially across northern areas, during this
time period. Temperatures may be slightly cooler as well with
continued high humidity.

Upper level ridging should gradually build back into the forecast
area by the end of next week and weekend. Abundant low level
moisture and heating should still support mainly diurnal
convection. Coverage should be comparably lower than earlier in
the week. Temperatures should also warm with highs back into the
lower 90s with lows remaining in the 70s.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

MCS developing over AR this evening is forecast to head ESE and
gradually weaken overnight. KMEM stands the best chance of having
TSRA on station and added a tempo. Confidence lower at the
remaining sites so kept VCTS for now. There will probably be be a
period of of MVFR cigs in the morning areawide. Expect
convection to redevelop in the afternoon and then diminish
Sunday evening.

Light SSW winds, outside of TSRAs, overnight becoming more
westerly Saturday morning at 8-10 kts.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021030-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
322 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over much
of north Mississippi this afternoon. The severe weather risks
remain localized damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional storm chances are expected through the remainder of the
weekend through the middle of next week. Any severe storm
potential during this period will remain isolated and localized.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JLH