Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Memphis, TN

065 
WWUS54 KMEG 161744
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

ARC037-161754-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-170616T1815Z/
Cross AR-
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3549 9050 3562 9022 3542 9017 3538 9018
      3537 9016 3531 9014 3527 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 249DEG 10KT 3541 9043 

$$

ARC035-093-111-161815-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-170616T1815Z/
Poinsett AR-Mississippi AR-Crittenden AR-
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
CRITTENDEN COUNTIES...

At 1244 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tyronza,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Marked Tree, Earle, Tyronza, Dyess, Gilmore, Turrell, Clarkedale,
Birdsong, Three Forks, Whitton, Dimple, Booker, Deckerville, Menesha,
Dub, Cloar, Chelford, Mc Clendons Corner, Denwood and Frenchmans
Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 9050 3562 9022 3542 9017 3538 9018
      3537 9016 3531 9014 3527 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 249DEG 10KT 3541 9043 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor/Visible satellite trends late this
morning indicate an Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) located over
Arkansas. Earlier dense fog and stratus has lifted across the
Mid-South with temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the 80s across most
locations.

Latest mesoanalysis already indicates surface based CAPE values
between 2000-4000 J/kg, LI's around -9 and steep 700-500 mb layer
mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km. These conditions combined
with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values around 30 kts suggest a potential
for some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this
evening, especially across portions of East Arkansas,
Northwest Mississippi, and Southwest Tennessee. Damaging winds
will be the predominant threat for any thunderstorms that reach
severe limits.

Will make some adjustments to pops and any other elements to
account for these short term mesoscale trends. An update will be
available shortly.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...In the wake of yesterday afternoon's convection low
clouds and fog has developed across much of West Tennessee and
North Mississippi. The fog is dense in spots and will be monitored
for a dense fog advisory over the next couple of hours. High
clouds, the blowoff from upstream convection, are also spreading
across the region. Temps range from the mid 70s over parts of the
Delta to the mid and upper 60s across Northeast Mississippi and
near the Tennessee River where the air was cooled by convection late
yesterday afternoon.

Today...An MCV has formed over SW Missouri and this will play a
key role in today's weather. Also an outflow boundary is working
SE across Arkansas and is located from north central Arkansas to
just west of Little Rock. Both of these features will move into
the Mid-South today. The low clouds and fog will burn off this
burn off this morning and the airmass will quickly destabilize
with SBCAPES pushing 3000 j/kg by noon. The MCV will be moving
into the region about this time and scattered thunderstorms should
develop west of the MS River by noon spreading SE during the
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are possible with
damaging winds the main threat with any storms that become severe.
Went above model guidance with respect to pops. Temps will be
tricky today and dependent on the evolution of convection. Trended
slightly cooler than previous forecast though still quite warm and
humid.

Tonight through Saturday night...Should be a relatively quiet
period as some upper ridging bulges into the region from the SW.
Expect warm, muggy and mostly rain free conditions.

Sunday into Monday...A cold front will move through with chances
for showers and thunderstorms increasing Sunday and especially
Sunday night. Precipitation will linger over North Mississippi
into Monday. The cold front will be pushing into a very unstable
airmass while a belt of higher mid level winds sags into the
region with the upper trough over the middle of the country. As a
result a few strong to severe storms are possible during this time
frame.

Tuesday through Thursday...A drier airmass will build in for
Tuesday with some very pleasant humidity levels. The heat and
humidity will gradually build through the week as the surface
high builds east.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

A diurnal Cu field continues to take shape early this afternoon
and will persist through at least sunset. Winds will remain light
from a general southerly direction initially but are expected to
become more from the west and southwest as a surface trough passes
the area. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to the develop
over eastern AR and are expected to become a bit more organized
throughout the afternoon, moving in a general southeasterly
direction into northwest MS. This complex of storms may affect
KMEM and KJBR, but the remaining forecast terminals will likely
remain to the east. Patchy fog will be possible overnight, mainly
over portions of west TN and north MS with generally VFR
conditions elsewhere.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
904 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171615-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
904 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
East Arkansas, North Mississippi, and Southwest Tennessee through
early evening. Damaging winds are the main threat from any storm
that becomes severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few strong to severe storms are possible Sunday into Monday as
a cold front moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURNSVILLE              34.84N 88.32W
06/15/2017                   TISHOMINGO         MS   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON A TRUCK. TIME IS RADAR EST.

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE FULTON            34.20N 88.37W
06/15/2017                   ITAWAMBA           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 25 SOUTH NEAR TILDEN. ANOTHER
            TREE DOWN ON RIVERWALK BY BROWNS COVE.

0137 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE TRACE STATE PARK  34.29N 88.84W
06/15/2017                   PONTOTOC           MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BLOWN OVER ACROSS CHESTERVILLE ROAD IN EXTREME
            NORTHEAST PONTOTOC COUNTY.

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELDEN                  34.31N 88.79W
06/15/2017                   LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES FELL ON VEHICLE NEAR BELDEN.

&&

JOHNSON