Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
653 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

Skies remain partly cloudy over the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures in the 80s. A few thunderstorms have develop
over extreme northern sections of the forecast area where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening. A cold
front currently extends from southern Ohio across southern
Illinois and into the Texas panhandle.

The cold front will move slowly south tonight. More thunderstorms
are expected to develop ahead of the front and move through the
forecast area especially late tonight and into early Sunday
morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail and
damaging winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible and an isolated tornado is not out of the question.
Temperatures will remain warm tonight with lows Sunday morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Sunday, the cold front will be moving toward the forecast area
reaching east Arkansas in the afternoon. More thunderstorms are
expected to form ahead of the front and move into the forecast
area. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe with large hail
and damaging winds as the main threats. Temperatures will be a
little cooler than today with more clouds over the region as
highs will be in the low to mid 80s. By Sunday night, the cold
front will finally move through much of the forecast area with
more thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will be a little cooler
Sunday night with lows Monday morning mainly in the 60s.

On Monday, the cold front will move out of the southern sections
of the forecast area with thunderstorms limited to those areas.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the low to mid
80s. By Monday night, the cold front will stall out across central
Mississippi with a chance of thunderstorms over portions of north
Mississippi.

The remainder of the forecast period appears to remain somewhat
unsettled as there will be some frontal boundary near or over the
forecast area. This will mean that there will be some threat of
thunderstorms from Tuesday through to next Saturday. It will not
be raining all of the time but there will be at least some chance
of thunderstorms during the extended periods of the forecast.
Temperatures will remain close to normal levels for the period
from Tuesday through next Saturday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

Very moist and unstable airmass in place across the Mid-South.
Expect convection to the north of the region to eventually push
south overnight arriving at KJBR around 02z...KMKL at 03z...KMEM
at 04z and KTUP at 06z. IFR conds and strong winds gusts are
likely. After the line moves through there will be a period of
showers with some embedded thunder. MVFR cigs are likely during
the morning and will eventually improve to VFR later in the day
with scattered tsras possible as a cold front move through.

Outside of thunderstorms expect SSW winds 7-10 kts overnight
shifting to WSW on Sunday at 10-12 kts with occasional higher
gusts.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms north of a line
from Harrisburg, Arkansas, to Lexington, Tennessee. There is an
Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms south of the Moderate risk
and north of a line from Marvell, Arkansas to Savannah, Tennessee.
The Enhanced Risk area includes the Memphis Metropolitan Area.
The primary severe weather threat will be damaging winds, which
may be widespread and significant. In addition, large hail and
isolated tornadoes are also possible. The primary timing for
severe weather will be later this evening and overnight.

A Slight Risk for severe weather remains across the remainder of
the area. Although not as widespread, the potential will exist for
severe storms in these locations tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across the entire
Mid South on Sunday and Sunday night. The primary severe weather
risks during this period will be damaging winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today through Sunday
night.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCETON                36.03N 88.25W
05/27/2017                   CARROLL            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN, SOME LARGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT
            LEAST 50-60 MPH.

&&

WLC