Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system rotating over southern
Missouri this afternoon will continue to move slowly east-
southeast through tonight. A surface reflection/low over southeast
Missouri will also move east with a trailing cold front now
entering northeast Arkansas advancing southeast through the night.
The atmosphere ahead of the cold front remains strongly unstable
with SBCAPES around 2500 j/kg and LI'S around -6c. Mid level
height falls along the southern periphery of the upper low will
continue to rotate above the unstable low level airmass with
steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts associated with a low and mid level jet
streak rotating around the upper low and over the area has
provided sufficient shear for storm organization. A mix of
supercell structures and short bowing line segments will continue
along and ahead of the cold front as it progresses southeast
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These storms
will likely be severe with damaging very large hail the primary
threat...with sizes up to 2 inches or greater, or larger than golf
ball size. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado is also
possible through this evening but should remain a secondary
threat. The severe weather threat should wane later this evening
as the instability and shear weakens.

The front should stall across portions of north Mississippi on
Tuesday as upper level ridging briefly builds over the Mid South.
Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday near the front as the low level airmass destabilizes.
Considering the rising mid level heights...not expecting any
severe potential on Tuesday.

Concern shifts then shifts to mid week with an additional threat
for severe storms. A large upper level trough now over California
will close off as a large upper level low pressure system and will
push towards the Mid South by Wednesday. The stalled frontal
boundary to our south will lift back north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Strengthening low level jet winds will surge into the
warm frontal boundary by Wednesday afternoon. The atmosphere
should become quite unstable with CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg and
mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer shear will
increase through the afternoon over the warm front and this
combined with enhanced instability could support a few severe
storms along the northward lifting warm front.

The large upper low will move in from the west Wednesday night
with falling mid level heights and continued unstable low level
airmass. Thunderstorms which should develop over the Arklatex
earlier in the day...some which should be severe...should
consolidate into a squall line and push east into the Mid South
late Wednesday night. A few severe storms will be possible with
this line but it should begin to weaken by sunrise. The atmosphere
should reload behind this line and destabilize on Thursday.
Additional storm should develop and with sufficient shear and
instability in place...expect more potential for severe weather as
the upper low moves over the region.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the upper
low should linger into Friday...but not expecting additional
severe weather during this period.

Upper level ridging should briefly build back into the area for
the first part of the weekend but additional stormy weather
conditions will return by the end of next weekend. Temperatures
should remain near or above seasonal averages through the extended
forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through most of the evening hours.
Some thunderstorms are moving across portions of west Tennessee
and some of this activity could move into north Mississippi later
this evening. Some low clouds and fog are expected to move into
the forecast area overnight producing IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities. The low clouds should hang around until early
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the south at 10 to 15
knots with higher gusts tonight before shifting to the north at 5
to 10 knots overnight and continuing through Tuesday.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             6 SW BYHALIA            34.80N 89.76W
03/27/2017  U1.00 INCH       DESOTO             MS   PUBLIC

1210 PM     HAIL             OAKLAND                 35.22N 89.51W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       FAYETTE            TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

1218 PM     HAIL             HOLLY SPRINGS           34.77N 89.44W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   PUBLIC

1240 PM     HAIL             3 S NEWBERN             36.07N 89.27W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

1252 PM     HAIL             WHITEVILLE              35.33N 89.15W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       HARDEMAN           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0102 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 34.83N 89.18W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN ASHLAND TOWN SQUARE.

0106 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 34.83N 89.18W
03/27/2017  E2.75 INCH       BENTON             MS   PUBLIC

0121 PM     HAIL             TOONE                   35.35N 88.95W
03/27/2017  E0.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0144 PM     HAIL             4 W PINSON              35.49N 88.79W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   PUBLIC

            MAINLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WEST
            OF PINSON.

0158 PM     HAIL             4 NE PARIS              36.34N 88.26W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       HENRY              TN   PUBLIC

0158 PM     HAIL             4 NE PARIS              36.34N 88.26W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       HENRY              TN   PUBLIC

0200 PM     HAIL             BELMONT                 34.51N 88.21W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   PUBLIC

0200 PM     HAIL             SAVANNAH                35.22N 88.24W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       HARDIN             TN   PUBLIC

0204 PM     HAIL             BELMONT                 34.51N 88.21W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   PUBLIC

0207 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRADFORD                36.07N 88.82W
03/27/2017                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUILDING FLOODED

0235 PM     HAIL             DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

0250 PM     HAIL             BOONEVILLE              34.66N 88.57W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       PRENTISS           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0302 PM     HAIL             MANILA                  35.88N 90.16W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   PUBLIC

0305 PM     HAIL             BALDWYN                 34.50N 88.63W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

0305 PM     HAIL             MARIETTA                34.50N 88.47W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       PRENTISS           MS   PUBLIC

0324 PM     HAIL             FULTON                  34.26N 88.40W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   PUBLIC

0327 PM     HAIL             DORSEY                  34.26N 88.51W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   PUBLIC

0340 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 E BROWNSVILLE        35.59N 89.08W
03/27/2017                   HAYWOOD            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAYWOOD/MADISON COUNTY LINE

0345 PM     HAIL             LUXORA                  35.76N 89.93W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   NWS STORM SURVEY

0400 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

0402 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNTOWN LOCATION

0421 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0424 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  35.75N 89.53W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC

0435 PM     TORNADO          6 E JACKSON             35.63N 88.72W
03/27/2017                   MADISON            TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0441 PM     HAIL             2 W HURON               35.59N 88.57W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0452 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.65N 88.39W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0457 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.65N 88.39W
03/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0500 PM     HAIL             4 NNW REAGAN            35.57N 88.38W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 PM     HAIL             BELLS                   35.72N 89.09W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       CROCKETT           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.65N 88.39W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0512 PM     HAIL             BEACON                  35.63N 88.18W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0517 PM     HAIL             BEACON                  35.63N 88.18W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0526 PM     HAIL             PARSONS                 35.65N 88.12W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       DECATUR            TN   PUBLIC

0530 PM     HAIL             MEDON                   35.46N 88.87W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

0533 PM     HAIL             BROWNSVILLE             35.59N 89.25W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       HAYWOOD            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S DECATURVILLE        35.55N 88.12W
03/27/2017                   DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO

0528 PM     HAIL             DECATURVILLE            35.58N 88.12W
03/27/2017  E2.00 INCH       DECATUR            TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S DECATURVILLE        35.55N 88.12W
03/27/2017                   DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO

&&

JEB

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