Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

821 
WWUS54 KMEG 220502
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSC135-220530-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170122T0530Z/
Tallahatchie MS-
1102 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY...

At 1102 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Vance, or 9
miles west of Charleston, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Tutwiler, Webb, Sumner, Waverly, Brazil, Beaver Dam, Mikoma, Stover,
Effie and Tippo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9042 3403 9045 3407 9044 3407 9011
      3387 9020 3389 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 202DEG 49KT 3403 9022 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

043 
WWUS54 KMEG 220533
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1133 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSC135-220543-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170122T0530Z/
Tallahatchie MS-
1133 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE
COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has exited the warned area. 
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3396 9042 3403 9045 3407 9044 3407 9011
      3387 9020 3389 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 198DEG 40KT 3434 9010 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for lowering evening POPs across the northern Midsouth
counties.

DISCUSSION...

Timing of convective development now in the ARLATEX suggests
activity will mainly affect Midsouth points south of a Jonesboro
Arkansas to a Corinth Mississippi line before midnight...with
points to the north getting in the main action afterwards. Made
adjustments to the evening POPs accordingly.

Greatest severe threat will still be large hail...with the most
favorable region for an isolated tornado to the south of I-40 and
west of I-55.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

Currently... at 3 PM CST around the Mid-South, clouds are
overspreading the region now with latest H5 analysis depicting
southwest flow present aloft as a mid-level trough axis ejects out
of the desert southwest and into Texas. This trough and upper low
will bring the region a chance for severe weather late this
evening and tonight.

Clouds will continue to build into the region late this afternoon
and evening. Models continue to work out around 1000 J/KG of
SBCAPE for portions of the southern half of the FA, primarily
over the Mississippi Delta region. A warm front will slowly lift
north into the region as a surface low develops to the west in
association with the upper low. This will allow lifting of some
surface based instability, overcoming any atmospheric capping and
producing the chance for strong to severe storms. The latest SPC
outlook has a moderate risk just to the SW of the region, with an
enhanced risk reaching into SW counties of the local FA. This area
will have the best chance for strong to severe storms this
evening as the warm front moves through the region, most likely
between 8 and 10 PM for the SW counties of the FA. While large
hail will be the primary threat given steep mid-level lapse rates
as heights fall rapidly aloft with the approaching trough, enough
shear could be present along the surface boundary for an isolated
tornado or two. In addition, damaging winds could also be possible
from strong downdrafts. While the greatest threat of severe
storms will be over the Mississippi Delta region, after 10 PM
there will be a slight risk for severe storms moving into the rest
of north Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and west Tennessee. The
latest HRRR composite reflectivity guidance suggests any discrete
storms developing to our SW conglomerating into a more linear form
of storms before affecting the Mid-South.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and into Sunday
as the upper low moves toward and over the region, although the
severe threat will come to an end by the early morning hours of
Sunday. Sunday highs will be quite cooler than Saturday's as winds
become more northwesterly as the low passes over the region. By
early Monday both the surface and upper low will be east of the
region, with conditions drying as highs only reach the lower 50s.
Dry conditions will maintain for Tuesday, with an upper ridge
moving overhead allowing temperatures to warm again into the 60s.
By early Wednesday a cold front associated with a surface low to
the north of the area will swing across the region. Models have
continued to trend drier with this feature, thus have only
included slight pops in eastern portions of the FA. Mild
temperatures midweek will become more seasonable for late in the
week as conditions dry once again.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours before
deteorating around midnight. MVFR or lower cigs and vsbys will be
possible early Sunday morning at all terminals as thunderstorms
move across the region. Winds will remain southeast between 5-10
kts overnight. A few severe storms will be possible overnight with
hail the greatest threat.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across all the
terminals through Sunday as a slow moving upper level low moves
across the region and helps destabilize the atmosphere. Winds will
increase from the southwest by Sunday afternoon at all sites.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
449 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-221200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
449 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN 6 PM AND 3
AM. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...STORM DAMAGE...OR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS...
TENNESSEE.